The sunny side showed me that mathematical research is indicating that equity markets worldwide will soon suffer a bear phase. Some, I think, have already started. The final blow-off rally is underway, to be advanced, I think, by the General, GE.

The timing is impeccable. Time Magazine's Man of the Year," I am now expecting to be Mr. Market " with the headline: Dow 11,000!"

And if GE does come through as the key driver, I would not be surprised to see GE's CEO Jeff Immelt there on the cover beside Mr. Market.

In the background there will likely be an airbrushed photo of Bush and Greenspan all smiles over their charts of economic performance, including high jobs and low inflation.

I'm not so sure that the Time editor's will want to include a photomontage of wealthy American homeowners snuggled up to a warm fireplace in their million dollar residences aside the Trump National golf course. After all, it's really the mortgage companies that own those properties, and that means the Mom & Pop holders of MBS securities are the real owners. And of course many of those are backstopped by the Government's Fannie & Freddie GSA's. All of them facing issues of some magnitude.

So I can't imagine that Time Magazine would intend to create any angst with their Man of the Year" cover story.

But you know, markets rise and they fall, and I'm still wondering why I am almost 80 pct allocated to cash. Surely there must be a bull market likely to continue somewhere in the world, right? Didn't one of the c's" of CNBC (Jim Cramer) tell us so? And if he can make the cover of Business Week last month, he must be right, right?

Yes, I am stumped. After putting another two per cent into precious metal stocks in the past week, I am 78-pct invested in cash or equivalent. That should be too much if the equity charts are clearly showing bull market, right?

Well all morning today I played a game of Follow the Hot Money." I was looking to see what could possibly be the cause of sellers overwhelming buyers in this equity market, in the near future, as I have positioned myself to take advantage of.

In spite of the increasing cloudiness, here's what I came up with:

1. The equity market will decline first, for no reason that Talking Heads will come up with. People like Joe Kernan (CNBC TH) will revert to their favorite lines: The only reason this market is going down is because traders are too negative. What happened to ‘Can Do' America?"
2. In spite of apparently positive economic data, share prices will continue to drop, across the board, except for the precious metals group. Traders will become more anxious, and gold and silver bullion prices will continue to go up.
3. Ultimately, late in the bear, a financial crisis of immense proportions will surface, causing a spike bottom, leading to the beginning of a new bull market.

Every time there were bear markets in the past, it was not 'crisis first, bear second'. It was always the reverse. I could never figure out whether the Gnomes had been aware of what really was going down (and taking protective steps) before the rest of us, or whether growing numbers of us got nervous like I am today, and were hitting the mattresses with cash.

In any event it was bear market followed by Mexico, Brazil Crises (1982), and then bull followed by bear followed by S&L Crisis (1990), and then bull followed by bear followed by Russia, LTCM Crises (1998), and then bull followed by bear followed by Argentina, Enron, WorldCom Crises (2002).

There is something oddly consistent in all this: strong bankers, hot money, and foreign beneficiaries.... a scare in the banking system, and finally collapse, followed by renewal of hopes, and higher equity prices.

So today, sitting in the quietude of an empty home, looking out across Lake Ontario, I am dwelling on the possible causes", and I came up with four:

(i) Central bank tightening around the world, which almost inevitably precedes a banking problem.
(ii) Global real estate bubbles that cannot take higher interest rates without popping.
(iii) Wage inflation, which in spite of talking heads saying otherwise is now +3.2 pct in the USA and +3.9 pct in Canada Y/Y, and is much worse in many second tier economies.
(iv) American families and American corporations and banks running up mortgage-related debts in America in order to invest in real estate in China and India in order to (bottom line) be positioned for a massive Yuan RMB revaluation, which is inevitable, and for economic growth in India.

Then as to the possible results", i.e., the actual crisis, and I came up with three:
(i) Collapse of the U.S. MBA Asset Class, taking with it Fannie & Freddie (sadly before the latter manage to straighten out their accounting problems and start reporting quarterly results to shareholders.
(ii) Pension Fund Collapse of the great American Manufacturing Companies (GM, Ford and others that have massive under-funded pension liabilities, which cannot handle higher interest rates for what that would do to the DCF calculations that have so far propped up their pension asset values) and the displacement of millions of workers from the best-paying jobs.
(iii) The Collapse of the India Rupee, leading to massive inflation in this country of over 1 billion people, and the need for a World Bank (i.e., U.S.) bailout in order to stabilize politics in South Asia.

If you are not interested in protecting your portfolio today, as I have, then at least watch for the following signs of impending crisis:

(i) Real estate prices in Hong Kong and California softening
(ii) Increasing real estate foreclosures in many countries
(iii) The huge premium to NAV coming out of the India Fund
(iv) Bad debts of Chinese manufacturers suffered by the Japanese and Korean exporters
(v) Disappointments by Singapore and Taiwan investors who hold large positions of China debt, where bond yields will start to rise sharply (unless the Yuan RMB is revalued much higher fairly soon)
(vi) Increasing numbers of ideologues attending colleges and universities in China and India, mainly, but elsewhere also, including in the U.S., who are now stunned by the high cost of education and the low paying jobs that follow, which keep them in debt
(vii) Increasing conflict by anti-globalization activists who are now helped by the digital world to organize more quickly, who believe that political leaders and wealthy supporters are in league against the workers
(viii) I could go on.

Yes, I think China, i.e., the unparalleled growth there for many years, will be at the heart of the problem. But there are others.

I am concerned, obviously. But there are always two sides to the coin.

I do see fewer long-term capital market risks in countries like Japan, South Korea and Russia, and in the technology sector, particularly among the small and mid-cap entrepreneur led specialty U.S. companies, and minerals explorers and producers (metals and oils) and specialty alternative fuel manufacturers, and water companies.

So there will always be a reason the glass is half full. Partly so, anyway.

---

Portfolio/Trades: Performance suffered a bit, but I'm now better positioned, and will make some big changes this week. Moved 2-pct cash into precious metals on end-of-week weakness.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Not participating in year-end rally (but holding 78-pct cash in portfolio)

10: Market-weighted: #3 performer on the week
15: Market-weighted: 2nd best on the week
20: Market-weighted: CAT & MMM strong; GE to come
25: Market-weighted: consumers liked income numbers
30: Market-weighted: consumers liked income numbers
35: Market-weighted: healthcare liked income numbers
40: Under-weighted: decline has started; XLF down "1.1 pct
45: Market-weighted: ending rally has INTC +9 pct in 2 wks
50: Market-weighted: flat on the week
55: Market-weighted: loser this week

Bonds: After a 3-week old bull trap had grown to be huge, the trap door snapped shut

Commodities: The index was up sharply because of strength in the NY Crude Oil and the Gold contracts

Oil & Gas: NY crude continued higher, as predicted. So where are all those oil bears now?

Gold: Gold was up $7.32 this week. It's testing the $500 psychological support before booming. This is last chance for the gold bears to pull down gold. LOL

Goldminers: Shares of the North American miners were down as the bullion rose. No matter. That's just your Fidelity managers making yet another mistake

Forex: USD was down this week as much as up a week ago (-0.13 pct). The Euro was also off, in spite of the ECB raising rates first time in 5 years. That had been expected and traders were worried that the ECB might go soft on them now

International Equities: EWJ (Japan) and EWU (UK) were up +1.8 and +1.4 pct W/W respectively. Interestingly, EWC (Canada) was up +0.56 pct W/W, all of which was made on Friday. All are over-priced. Japan and S. Korea (EWY) seem to have all economic cylinders going, and bear watching after a likely pull-back

U.S. Equities : The two big broad market indexes (Dow 30 and S&P500) were down (-0.5 pct and "0.3 pct W/W respectively). The Naz and the Russell were up (+0.5 pct and +1.0 pct W/W respectively). But the Naz has a weekly STO=99.9 and the Russell weekly STO is 99.5. Yikes! Not long now. I can hear a bear growling.

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ETF Portfolio:

Weekly
Daily
30-Minute

Short:
XLF (29.13) 32.11 -10.2 pct
IYZ (23.50) 24.05 -2.3 pct
EWH (13.03) 13.02 +0.1 pct

Long:
TSX: XGD (53.03) 57.34 +8.1 pct
XLP (22.75) 23.53 +3.4 pct
IYH (60.54) N/A +3.12 pct SOLD

My sample portfolio declined even more: to being up +2.2 pct from +6.1 pct two weeks ago. It's been hard to be short in a rising market, but Friday's gold shares picture hurt most.

No worries though; be happy. Big changes coming.

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Sector ETF:

Here are the ETF charts I follow for the ten sectors of the U.S. equity market:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but is otherwise unsorted.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
SMH	38.93	0.15	0.39%	3.92%	7.81%	10.88%	19.20%	6.77%	10.88%	16.07%
XLB	30.12	-0.13	-0.43%	1.55%	3.08%	8.00%	2.34%	9.53%	6.96%	2.41%
XLE	51.17	0.05	0.10%	0.33%	4.39%	0.27%	46.28%	0.43%	20.71%	43.57%
XLI	31.69	-0.12	-0.38%	0.25%	2.29%	5.39%	2.96%	6.49%	4.38%	2.56%
IYZ	24.05	-0.09	-0.37%	0.04%	2.87%	3.53%	-0.41%	1.26%	3.31%	-1.92%
XLY	33.59	0.11	0.33%	-0.27%	1.88%	3.61%	-4.19%	1.63%	0.93%	-2.33%
IYH	62.17	0.23	0.37%	-0.43%	0.02%	2.24%	6.71%	-0.97%	0.75%	8.54%
XLU	31.57	0.05	0.16%	-0.57%	1.09%	2.07%	14.67%	-4.33%	3.92%	17.54%
XLP	23.53	-0.01	-0.04%	-0.72%	0.81%	1.47%	1.95%	1.95%	0.00%	2.98%
XLF	32.11	0.07	0.22%	-1.05%	1.81%	5.00%	5.56%	8.88%	9.11%	6.93%

After four weeks running with nine ETF's up, and one down, and last week when all ten were up, this week the picture changed. This week there were 5 up and 5 down. The biggest changes were Semiconductor Techs SMH (+3.9 pct) and Basic Materials XLB (+1.6 pct). Financials XLF took the biggest loss. :-)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

XLE was up +0.33 pct to 51.17 W/W and +0.3 pct over 4 weeks, which is consolidating gains of 43.6 pct this YTD. It could be stalling and topping, but I prefer this ETF to about seven others.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

XLB was up +1.55 pct W/W, to 30.12, which was 2nd best of ten sector ETFs.

I still don't like the paper and forest products and chemicals during times when the bond yield curve is flattening. That is warning an economic slowdown or recession.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

XLI gained +0.25 pct W/W to 31.69, led by CAT and MMM (+1.5 pct and +1.4 pct W/W). It look likes GE and maybe BA will lead this group higher, possibly setting off the final run to Dow 11,000.

As you recall from earlier: XLI is topping, and I expect the bear will visit soon. The key is when GE rolls over."

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

XLY was down "0.27 pct W/W to 33.59 as WMT dropped "5.0 pct W/W on economic data that spending was up +0.2 pct M/M. No tickee in the U.S.. Not even in Hong Kong where the Disney park there is not faring well.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

XLP (Consumer Staples) was also down "0.72 pct W/W to 23.53, proving once again that consumers need tickee, even for staples.

I don't know why I'm long; it's an embarrassment to my portfolio even though I'm up +3.4 pct in a couple months. Ill be saying goodbye this week.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

IYH closed at 62.17; down "0.43 pct W/W. I'm glad I got out with a small gain of +3.12 pct. MRK " up one week, down the next.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Yessiree. XLF was down "1.05 pct W/W, which was the worst ETF performer of my ten. That's the appetizer. Get ready for dinner, Katherine and Spenser. It's Sidney bringing his XLF.

This one will be sliced and diced. Let me see? Foreclosures. Loans to China and India. Flat yield curve. Whew I'm glad I'm not a banker.

Did you take note that CIBC just took the biggest hit in its thousand-year existence? Tell me, how does a bank like this actually lose money when they print the stuff?

Enron, WorldCom, ... can you dearly dearly departed 950 senior officers who just cost this once world-class bank $1.9 billion 3rd Q05 loss spell c-h-i-n-a or i-n-d-i-a? Anyway, that's what you left behind. Good luck getting another job.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

SMH was up +3.92 pct W/W to 38.93. In 4 weeks, SMH is up +10.9 pct. Why? Don't ask me.

Actually I think INTC being up over 9 pct in two weeks has some part of that. But, again, don't ask me why.

Maybe ET will be visiting earth this month to buy up the world supply of computer games, PC's, automobiles, cell phones, and whatever else uses these chips -- the ones that go into products that aren't moving so well in this year-end stampede at Wal-Marts and retailers everywhere?

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ was up +2.82 pct W/W a week ago. This week it did squat, which is what follows an RSI at 90 on the Hourly and 82 on the Daily.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU (Utilities) was down "0.57 pct W/W to 31.57. YTD, XLU is 2nd best performer at up +17.5 pct, just ahead of SMH " but well behind XLE.

---

Bonds:

Last week I rambled on about the widening bull trap for the bond buyers. Anyway I warned that the 3-week phenomenon would likely snap shut any week. I even wrote: I think the stakes have risen immensely this month."

Well, not even the Bond King could get his out of the vice this week. Tell me, does he own PIMCO? How does he keep his job?

This week on Tuesday morning early, there was news that (i) October durable goods orders were up +3.4 pct M/M vs a consensus forecast (promoted by the Bond King no doubt) of up +1.8 pct and a decline in Sept. of -2.0 pct, and (ii) the Conference Board reporting that consumer confidence skyrocketed from 85.2 past the consensus estimate of 90 to land on the square numbered 98.9. We bond bears didn't need (iii).

Then on Thursday morning early we bond bears got a little additional fortitude when (i) the Monster Employment Index jumped from 143 to 149, and construction job searches were in the lead among stickers on the UI jobs posted board, (ii) The Euro Community Bank pumped up their rate from 2 to 2.25, first time in 5 years on account of concerns about --- drum roll please " inflation, (iii) the consumer savings and spending data showed that wages and salaries were up on the month by +0.6 pct " oh oh, no wage inflation there! Huh?, and (iv) well, along with the first two today and the first three on Tuesday, we bond bears didn't need any more.

TLT went down down "1.12 pct W/W to 89.50. I wonder how many TLT's does the Bond King and Larry Kudlow hold?

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

What can I say about CFC, FNM and FRE having a bad week? They just had a bad week. Traders are starting to look at foreclosures, and the strength of their MBA paper.

Tell me what happens when property owners decide to walk from their assets?

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

---

Commodities:

Inflation is over. I heard it on CNBC. LOL every time I hear that.

Then again, $CRB was up +2.77 pct this week, so maybe CNBC tuned out the world.

$CRB closed at 323.38. It took just three solid days (Wed through Fri) for oil and gold to break some hearts on the bull side of the This economy is solid; the commodities are speculative" argument.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil contracts (NY Crude EOD chart at StockCharts) were up +1.04 pct this week. A week ago it was up +2.62 pct. $WTIC is now 59.32.

Do you think the editors at Forbes trust their owner Steve?

---

Gold:

Gold closed up +1.48 pct W/W at 503.40 (Continuous contracts). That just happens to be $7.32 in USD in case anybody is counting in USD.

Last week I wrote: What else can I say? I just love canary yellow, and at Christmas, when I get on that cruise ship, I'll be chirping for another Yellow Bird."

It could actually get to be quite a few too many. For sure I don't want to run into any BillCara.com readers, judging from the number of people who wrote to say there were going to buy me drinks when we meet.

I'll have to wear a disguise, cut off the graybeard, or something. I cannot afford to get drunk, other than with the joy of writing this stuff.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

Silver was up this week +4.14 pct to 8.55. I'm glad I got aboard on Nov-17 at about 8.00.

Last week when silver closed at 8.21, you might recall my words: Last week I wrote (with silver at 8.05): For a real silver bull stampede, the Crazy's have to get the price above $8.25. But that is likely to happen."" Hmmm. 8.55.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

Platinum closed up 23.60 (+2.40 pct W/W) to $1007.90. New all-time record, and I hear they're not making any more? :-)

Wonder what's likely to happen when the auto manufacturers actually start to produce cars again?

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

Palladium was down a week ago "1.65 pct, but this week was up +2.78 pct to 271.57, which just happens to be $7.34. Like Platinum and Copper, I guess you could say that it consolidated previous gains the prior week, and now has moved onward and upward.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

Copper was up +6.56 pct W/W ($11.51 on the contracts) to 201.37. You recall last week I wrote: The same people who say Copper is going to crash are telling you the economy is red hot. Go Figure."

This week the ABN AMRO base metals head trader told the Bloomberg TV audience the fun has just begun. Well, he didn't actually say fun" " he works for a bank after all. It's just that I took it that way, so blame it on me.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

---

The Philly goldminer index (XAU) was a shocker, but that's what happens when U.S. fund managers are desperate to save their jobs. They want to book profits while they have them.

That gets them into 1Q06, when they can enjoy spending their 2005 bonuses knowing they have a job to go back to.

And then when their boss comes by at the end of 2Q06, when the goldminers are up say 30 pct on the Q, they have a good story to tell: This is just a peanut sized index anyway. I've been doing some good work on the techs and financials, trying to bottom fish."

Anyway, I was day dreaming again. It's now 6pm and there's a hockey game to watch at 7, so I have to move it along.

$XAU was down 2.05 pct W/W to 116.23. People got scared re the ECB rate hike. Could actually set of a pattern of common sense.

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The XGD Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF TSE:XGD was also weak.

XGD was down "2.60 pct W/W to 57.34, which didn't help my portfolio a bit. Hurt me actually. But just like $XAU was down "2.05 pct and Friday was "1.62 pct of that, XGD was down "1.82 pct on Friday, which was a golden lion's share of "2.60 pct loss on the week.

I'm not going anywhere until I personally get a call from John Snow to tell me he put a stop to M3 growth.

Here are the Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

For an interactive look, here are links to the Hourly data charts of three groups of proven goldminer stocks. You can click on the tabs for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts.

List #1

List #2

List #3

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Forex:

The trade-weighted USD index closed at 91.92, down from 92.04, which is a drop of "0.13 pct W/W. $USD has been flat for a month, and btw for 18 months.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) was down "0.07 pct W/W to 117.07. But Friday it was down a ton because traders are sad that the ECB raised rates without getting hawkish about it. And you know traders are either for you or against you.

No middle ground. You either bought or you sold. That's (a) why I love trading, and (b) lawyers make a complete and total screw up at it. You see, they can't speak with forked tongue or they get slapped in the head, and the pocketbook.

The problem with European politicians now of course is that they can't appear to be hawkish on interest rates without setting off more riots. Tough job. Requires a lot of diplomacy.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

---

International Equities:

Japan and South Korea have been on a tear because of their favorable position as being vendors to China, and not the other way around. So what is a good thing becomes a great thing after Mr. Joe revalues his Yuan RMB upward.

But the foreword today indicates my feelings on China, where all is not as solid as it appears. So traders beware.

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

This week, EWJ (Japan) was up +1.76 pct W/W to 12.74. There was quite a pop Thursday at the open because of the ECB hiking rates. That gives more breathing room to the Japanese.

But the Weekly STO is now screaming out 96.2. And South Korea's EWY is up almost +200 pct since Aug-04. We're talking a country here; not SanDisk.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The U.K. ETF (EWU) was up +1.39 pct W/W to 18.97. Last week I wrote Toppy". This week I'm just going to say I never thought the Brits could ever get their market RSI up to a 96.8 on the Weekly.

Pinch me.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

As long as we have a Canadian judge on holiday in deepest Africa or Florida while we have a country upset at his shenanigans, I'm not going to write another word about Canada.

Just kidding. I have to. I live here.

Well today the still-Prime Minister walked lock step with the head of the Canadian union movement, causing the head of the NDP Party to have a bowel movement. I mean really. How many gazillion dollars did this PM offer from the taxpayer's kitty to pull that move?

I tell you, this election is going to turn out to be Anybody but Martin" " and I think we'll probably end up with Everybody but Martin" " which means of course that I expect a minority government comprised of all the non-Liberal Parties.

But I'm not supposed to get political. Well, I helped vote them in, I can help vote them out!

The Canadian EWC closed Friday at 21.57, which is a small gain of +0.56 pct W/W. That's nothing after the move a week ago of 4.99 pct. Incidentally, the RCMP are now investigating possible criminal leaks of the pre-election campaign platform " the one where the Liberal Minister of Finance says nobody knew in advance he was going to bring presents to the millions of Cdn income trust holders (and voters) of this country. The market says otherwise.

Do I think there was a leak? Is the Pope German?

Have you ever known a politician to keep a secret from his most valuable supporters?

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

The Dow 30 and S&P500 indexes were both down, -0.49 pct and "0.25 pct W/W respectively. On the other hand, the Nasdaq and the Russell small cap indexes were up +0.46 pct and +1.02 pct W/W.

On the other hand yet again, the Naz and the Russell just hit Weekly data STO's of 99.9 and 99.6 respectively. How many times can traders say yikes!!! ?

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
MCD	34.91	-0.42	-1.19%	4.33%	5.18%	5.06%	9.71%	9.44%	12.18%	11.11%
AA	28.10	-0.18	-0.64%	2.82%	6.24%	11.82%	-9.33%	4.38%	1.19%	-15.94%
INTC	27.43	0.25	0.92%	2.31%	9.24%	14.82%	18.90%	8.50%	-0.58%	20.78%
CAT	58.81	-0.19	-0.32%	1.48%	2.33%	9.97%	23.73%	0.96%	23.58%	28.21%
MMM	79.40	0.13	0.16%	1.38%	2.77%	5.67%	-3.64%	11.05%	3.70%	-0.64%
UTX	54.99	0.77	1.42%	1.25%	2.31%	6.76%	6.78%	8.68%	2.71%	10.96%
MSFT	28.01	0.12	0.43%	0.90%	0.14%	5.94%	4.75%	3.66%	8.61%	3.40%
SBC	24.91	-0.14	-0.56%	0.57%	4.27%	4.75%	-2.66%	4.62%	5.24%	-1.03%
BA	69.44	-0.23	-0.33%	0.55%	2.65%	6.02%	36.24%	7.93%	7.86%	26.58%
JPM	38.99	0.42	1.09%	0.33%	2.79%	5.12%	-0.41%	14.31%	9.09%	1.43%
PG	57.36	-0.28	-0.49%	0.14%	0.37%	2.50%	3.93%	2.45%	2.48%	2.76%
KO	42.82	-0.02	-0.05%	0.05%	2.27%	0.56%	3.08%	-2.46%	-4.38%	5.94%
DD	43.16	-0.16	-0.37%	0.02%	2.13%	0.35%	-12.13%	11.09%	-7.30%	-6.11%
IBM	88.65	-0.56	-0.63%	-0.17%	2.03%	6.97%	-9.31%	11.57%	14.61%	-7.42%
MO	73.32	0.32	0.44%	-0.20%	2.12%	-1.31%	20.93%	4.65%	8.43%	26.41%
VZ	31.87	-0.27	-0.84%	-0.34%	0.54%	3.37%	-21.29%	-1.85%	-9.38%	-23.97%
DIS	24.88	-0.08	-0.32%	-0.68%	-4.27%	-0.08%	-10.66%	0.48%	-9.33%	-9.92%
JNJ	61.21	-0.47	-0.76%	-1.51%	-3.36%	0.02%	-2.69%	-2.69%	-8.64%	-0.87%
C	48.77	-0.08	-0.16%	-1.51%	1.73%	7.30%	1.04%	11.14%	2.22%	6.58%
HPQ	29.23	-0.33	-1.12%	-1.68%	0.79%	1.70%	38.86%	5.91%	28.88%	42.10%
PFE	21.30	-0.08	-0.37%	-1.71%	-0.23%	-2.61%	-19.47%	-15.91%	-24.47%	-25.16%
XOM	59.07	-0.28	-0.47%	-1.73%	2.95%	0.85%	17.93%	-2.65%	3.05%	17.74%
HD	41.67	0.13	0.31%	-1.77%	-1.98%	2.16%	-3.32%	3.32%	3.30%	-1.14%
AXP	51.61	-0.38	-0.73%	-1.92%	4.26%	3.78%	-7.69%	-6.77%	-4.87%	-8.09%
GE	35.50	-0.25	-0.70%	-1.93%	2.42%	4.47%	-2.98%	6.51%	-3.79%	-1.22%
AIG	67.29	-0.52	-0.77%	-2.29%	0.33%	2.08%	1.91%	13.42%	20.40%	3.28%
HON	36.06	-1.20	-3.22%	-2.33%	-1.02%	1.78%	2.15%	-5.03%	-1.56%	0.28%
MRK	29.97	0.29	0.98%	-3.26%	1.22%	1.66%	-4.13%	3.95%	-7.01%	4.79%
GM	22.08	-0.53	-2.34%	-3.41%	-2.43%	-17.02%	-45.21%	-32.91%	-29.32%	-42.53%
WMT	47.97	-0.06	-0.12%	-4.99%	-2.58%	1.10%	-10.08%	7.68%	-0.52%	-9.49%

This performance chart of the Dow 30 shows 13 stocks up and 17 down this week. So were you told that all the Dow dogs are rock stars? Now you see they can't all rock and roll.

We'll a few of them will be rolling, down the hill, pretty soon.

Lets take a look at what happened:

The five big winners out of 13 on the week:

MCD, up +4.33 pct: so-called private capital" wants to steal this one
AA, up +2.82 pct: price of aluminum is like copper, which is like gold
INTC, up +2.31 pct: for now anyway
CAT, up +1.48 pct: mining equipment now in big demand
MMM, up +1.38 pct: I don't have a good reason

The five big losers out of 17 this week:

WMT, down "4.99 pct: Shoppers have no tickee!
GM, down "3.41 pct: A whole lot of problems; where do you start? Ch. 7?
MRK, down "3.26 pct: looking ahead to 6,500 court trials
HON, down "2.33 pct: Maybe the Pentagon went on vacation early
AIG, down "2.29 pct: Spitzer Redux: a movie made for TV

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

(AA) (AA) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jan. 20)

(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Feb. 25)

(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Feb. 25)

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Sep. 23 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Dec. 23)

(C) (C) (Here is the Nov. 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Feb. 25)

(CAT) (CAT) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jan. 27)

(DD) (DD) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jan. 20)

(DIS) (DIS) (Here is the Nov. 18 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Feb. 18)

(GE) (GE) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jan. 13)

(GM) (GM) Here is the Sep. 2 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Dec. 2)

(HD) (HD) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jan. 6)

(HON) (HON) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jan. 27)

(HPQ) (HPQ) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jan. 13)

(IBM) (IBM) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jan. 13)

(INTC) (INTC) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jan. 13)

(JNJ) (JNJ) Here is the Sep. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Dec. 2)

(JPM) (JPM) Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Feb. 25)

(KO) (KO) (Here is the Nov. 4 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Feb. 3)

(MCD) (MCD) (Here is the Sept. 9 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Dec. 9)

(MMM) (MMM) (Here is the Nov 18 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Feb 18)

(MO) (MO) (Here is the Nov.4 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Feb. 3)

(MRK) (MRK) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jan. 20)

(MSFT) (MSFT) (Here is the Nov. 25 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Feb. 25)

(PFE) (PFE) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jan. 20)

(PG) (PG) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jan. 6)

(SBC) (SBC) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on SBC: next one is due Dec. 30)

(UTX) (UTX) (Here is the Oct. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jan. 27)

(VZ) (VZ) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Dec. 30)

(WMT) (WMT) (Here is the Nov. 11 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Feb. 11)

(XOM) (XOM) (Here is the Sep. 16 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Dec. 16)

The Value Line Reports for this week are GM and JNJ.

Value Line dropped GM to a Timeliness rating of 4 this week (Nov-25). Claims they are now on shaky ground. Truly; I'm not making this up.

Value Line also raised JNJ on Friday to a Technical 4 (2nd lowest rating), and says JNJ should be a core holding. I say the same thing. But I tend to do it on a more timely basis, like when RSI is down at 20 (Aug-05) @ 62, so you can write some puts, and pick up premium while you wait for the stock to possibly to go lower..

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Wrap up

Nine minutes to hockey time. So that's a wrap.

It's been a slice.

BCara@BillCara.com