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December 13, 2005

The Fed speaks, but are you listening?, Tues., Dec. 13, 2005, 2:25 PM

The FOMC has increased the discount rate to 4.25 pct, and has stated that the economy is solid. With the accompanying statement, the Fed seems to be more or less indicating that further rate increases may be in store because energy prices are still a problem.

There is nothing here to make the equity and bond markets zip higher as they have. This is nothing but cheerleading.

The higher Fed rate and the lower bond yields are actually flattening the yield curve, which means that recession is that much closer. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys is only 10 basis points and it is flat between the 2-year and the 5-year. So when the long end comes down here and the short end rises, the near flat curve may even invert soon.

And you tell me how an inverted yield curve can lead to the picture below. But don't waste your time thinking about it because it cannot happen unless traders are being misled.


069a004.gif


Although my PC is jammed, I am working around the problem to get this article out. I will also publish another one soon (I hope) that talks about what Wall Street doesn't want to tell you is really going on today.

The problem today is not the economy, nor is it inflation or deflation (at this point anyway). The problem is a bubble, and that bubble is not in housing prices, metals prices or energy prices.

What the Fed and Wall Street are struggling with today is how to stop the global credit bubble from exploding.

Today's FOMC decision is merely trying to buy time.


btw, at exactly 2:14pm today, with everybody breathlessly awaiting the announcement out of the Fed, I saw a small group of Canadian Geese taking off from the litle inlet beside me, so I rushed out to take this photo.

Also, my fine feathered friends are not migrating, they are permanent neighbors (at least a couple hundred are), putting on their fly-by ritual about three times a day. I can never figure out why they come and go like this -- maybe just for the exercise?


069a002.jpg

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 13, 2005 02:25:37 PM | Category: Economics

Discourse

hi bill

Nice to have you back.

The image shows on my browser as a GIF
Maybe you did solve this problem.

Andrew

Posted by: Andy [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 13, 2005 4:33 PM [link]

Spot on! Good work, Bill.... Finally someone gets it. The blather coming out of all the 'economists holes' was remarkable. And for all the talk, yet another failed push from the S&P today...

Posted by: rhetguy [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 14, 2005 12:13 AM [link]