I saw Sonders also and it made me wonder, is she clueless, or is this just standard operating procedure? It is easier to be wrong about gold with all the other Wall Streeters than to stick out her neck. Then I realized, who cares? I don't, because it means that I can buy weakness for many years to come and look like a genius. The gold gravy train will be over when people like her are extremely bullish.

Got gold?

I believe g034's thought process is a healthy one. If the street were now as bullish on gold as they are on oil, the easy money would be made already. The stocks would not be relative bargains (relative to the metal), they would trade at historic premiums to the metal.

Gold doing well does not imply positive things. When you talk to people about the key reasons for owning gold you may cause them discomfort, they have to think about things not being so good after all. Cheerleaders don't go there.

John Rutledge (Rutledge Capital) on CNBC saying right now 'Gold is very expensive, I don't own it, not in it. There's a lot of FEAR out there.' Implying 'I'm not scared, I'm an optimist, a true American. THEY are cowards, pessimists, lost souls.'

Anayst that are bullish are low on their numbers, the rest are like Rutledge and Sonders- just sales people selling people what people want to buy.

I think in December 2006 the story will not be energy, it will be gold. If one has conviction that this is a long term secular move, the important thing for now is not to trade out of your long exposure on ramps like yesterday. (Even though I prefer to 'scale' in and out I found myself too light on energy too early this year.) The stocks appear to be breaking out of their relative funk this past week. However, I fear they are trading in too much sympathy with stocks and may take a tumble right along with the market, if so I have room to add some further exposure.

Got gold.

stockman-
Although I think you are right I too think they are trading in too much sympathy to the market. I haven't figured out what that means other than some people with no conviction are scaling out. Personally, I took the GLG spike and will wait for it to pull back and re-enter it. Love that miner. If it gets pulled down along with the market I now have room to come in big time.

MarkM

Understood. As I only have a 9% position in metal stocks I have room to add. If I was already at max exposure (15% +/- for me) I would take advantage of spikes as well. I also have a cash alternative (gold bullion!) making up 10% of my account.

If I were inclined to sell stock spikes I would probably reallocate those funds to the less volatile bullion in order to maintain my exposure. I gather you have 80% cash so your situation is different from mine. I want the 'insurance' of the gold miners and bullion to hedge my TLT and other stock exposure. My actual cash is only 35% and with the current composition the beta is about .45

stockman-

I appreciate the community Bill and others are building here and hope you will become one of his "monitors" so that I may benefit from your thinking in other areas as well. I think I would learn a lot.

Yes, 80% cash is right. My top gold/miner exposure is 10-12%. I am not holding gold as a cash alternative but I hear you and others are.

I did not take your comments as critical of my move. Yes it looks stupid today but I was comfortable with itand still am. If this runs up 10% without me THEN everyone can send me a Get Well card!

Good luck with the TLT. Shorted it at 91.50ish myself and got out at 88 something. That was a while back before the trap. Haven't played with it since. I'm a very poor player on the short side. Can't seem to get my mind to "work in reverse".

MarkM-

Agreed on Bill's commune. It is rare in the money business that you find people doing something to help others- just because. They almost always seek financial gain or lack objectivity (usually both!)

As far as offering to help out, not sure. I looked down the list and didn't feel I had enough specific expertise to add value.

I will plan to be an active participant here as time allows. If I can ever become an 'expert' on any specific category I'll be happy to volunteer. I guess I'm more of a generalist?

Short selling- definitely not my area of expertise. I own the Rydex Arktos in my trading account to hedge my equity exposure at this point.

The TLT position reflects my pessimistic outlook on the economy and is a hedge I own in both my trading account and my investment account. I really like looking at things that are significantly out of favor and trying to build an opposing view. The risk:return can be favorable when everyone (pro and public) dislikes something (like bonds). Not expecting much from the bonds really, just to outperform cash and stocks over the next 12 months.