« Home-builder trashing, Tues., Nov. 8, 2005, 9:49 AM | Main | Schwab talk reminds reader of SNL Straight Talk, Tues., Nov. 8, 2005, 10:38 AM »

November 8, 2005

Weak open to U.S. markets may signal turn, Tues., Nov. 8, 2005, 10:17 AM

As you know, I have remained bearish on the intermediate-term prospects for the broad equity market in the U.S.

I have stated a belief that the present capital risk that is unrecognized in share prices at this point could soon be factored into trading decisions. If so, the Dow 30, for example, could drop to 9200 at the next cycle low sometime in 1H06.

I am awaiting a close below Dow=10300 to set off a flurry of selling. Presently the Dow is trading at Dow=10530, so I am not calling the turn yet, but just looking for potential weaknesses in the Bull side armor.

Readers know that every time there is a 100-point move in the Dow I take a snapshot of the market's biggest winners and losers, and use it to try to determine a link between the key drivers and the resultant share prices.

Today I did that snapshot because, with the Dow down about 55, there could be an impending market sell-off, and I want to see the sector/groups that are looking like they are the weakest and would likely lead on the downside. So, here is that picture, which has not changed much over the past half hour.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 8, 2005 10:18:11 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market