Bill Cara:

« Buying opportunity for gold shares, Fri., Nov. 4, 2005, 3:38 PM | Main | Week #44 (2005-11-05) in Review »

November 5, 2005

Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net

SMH 35.29 0.18 0.51% 5.94% 1.61% -0.45% 8.05% -5.08% 11.54% 8.95%

XLY 32.54 0.12 0.37% 3.93% 4.09% 2.78% -7.19% -5.32% 1.69% -2.89%

XLE 49.51 -1.52 -2.98% 2.57% 7.58% -0.04% 41.54% 1.54% 21.41% 39.39%

IYH 61.14 0.33 0.54% 1.98% 2.07% 0.59% 4.94% -2.94% -0.36% 10.32%

XLI 30.09 0.02 0.07% 1.48% 2.73% 0.97% -2.24% -0.30% 1.62% 1.69%

XLB 27.85 -0.04 -0.14% 1.38% 5.02% 4.78% -5.37% -3.10% -3.50% -1.42%

XLF 30.63 0.05 0.16% 1.06% 4.33% 5.11% 0.69% 2.17% 5.29% 3.90%

IYZ 23.21 -0.02 -0.09% 1.00% 3.52% 1.58% -3.89% -4.09% 1.98% -1.40%

XLP 23.18 -0.01 -0.04% 0.43% 1.36% 1.49% 0.43% -0.47% -0.09% 2.34%

XLU 30.90 -0.03 -0.10% -0.48% 1.81% -4.25% 12.24% -4.84% 2.97% 14.28%

U.S. Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.77 3.74 3.73 3.39

6 Month 4.07 4.05 4.02 3.81

2 Year 4.45 4.44 4.37 4.17

3 Year 4.49 4.48 4.40 4.18

5 Year 4.55 4.53 4.44 4.20

10 Year 4.66 4.64 4.56 4.34

30 Year 4.85 4.84 4.77 4.56

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 2.85 2.82 2.81 2.69

2yr AAA 2.82 2.81 2.78 2.67

2yr A 3.04 2.94 2.76 2.78

5yr AAA 3.23 3.21 3.19 3.07

5yr AA 3.25 3.22 3.21 3.06

5yr A 3.31 3.31 3.29 3.11

10yr AAA 3.79 3.74 3.71 3.58

10yr AA 3.77 3.73 3.69 3.56

10yr A 3.83 3.88 3.86 3.75

20yr AAA 4.24 4.20 4.17 4.05

20yr AA 4.20 4.18 4.12 4.04

20yr A 4.35 4.33 4.23 4.20

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.56 4.54 4.49 4.21

2yr A 4.62 4.63 4.53 4.29

5yr AAA 4.73 4.72 4.61 4.36

5yr AA 4.85 4.82 4.74 4.47

5yr A 4.89 4.89 4.79 4.51

10yr AAA 5.24 5.26 5.12 4.80

10yr AA 5.18 5.21 5.09 4.83

10yr A 5.26 5.25 5.18 4.90

20yr AAA 5.47 5.49 5.44 5.15

20yr AA 5.79 5.79 5.77 5.53

20yr A 5.89 5.90 5.86 5.60

Symbol Close Net %Net 1W %Net 2W %Net 4W %Net YTD %Net 3M %Net 6M %Net Yr %Net

HON 35.90 0.47 1.33% 6.85% 8.10% -1.78% 1.70% -7.02% 1.07% 0.93%

MRK 29.22 -0.26 -0.88% 6.10% 11.61% 14.59% -6.53% -3.69% -16.35% 8.14%

CAT 53.55 0.07 0.13% 4.86% 9.46% -5.42% 12.67% -0.87% 19.77% 24.71%

WMT 47.69 0.24 0.51% 4.81% 4.31% 8.31% -10.61% -3.25% -1.57% -15.23%

AA 25.17 0.04 0.16% 4.79% 7.79% 9.15% -18.78% -10.43% -14.56% -24.19%

MSFT 26.66 0.22 0.83% 4.43% 7.59% 8.42% -0.30% -2.42% 5.75% 6.43%

DIS 24.81 -0.09 -0.36% 4.16% 7.96% 2.95% -10.92% -3.16% -7.39% -5.74%

PFE 22.26 0.39 1.78% 3.53% 4.75% -8.73% -15.84% -16.32% -20.01% -23.40%

MCD 33.43 0.20 0.60% 3.53% 2.92% 3.76% 5.06% 7.15% 10.95% 12.82%

DD 43.31 0.30 0.70% 3.12% 12.09% 14.33% -11.83% 0.72% -10.92% -1.12%

INTC 23.99 0.10 0.42% 2.83% 3.63% 0.71% 3.99% -11.18% -0.50% 4.85%

XOM 57.90 -0.67 -1.14% 2.82% 4.57% -2.85% 15.59% -1.06% 1.17% 15.36%

AIG 65.99 0.07 0.11% 2.63% 4.88% 6.66% -0.06% 7.95% 21.37% 8.06%

JPM 37.31 0.22 0.59% 2.39% 6.21% 10.06% -4.70% 5.22% 3.35% -5.88%

HD 41.38 0.59 1.45% 2.12% 4.36% 9.47% -3.99% 0.24% 11.54% -1.34%

HPQ 28.53 -0.21 -0.73% 2.04% 3.48% 5.28% 35.53% 16.64% 35.66% 46.08%

IBM 83.00 0.13 0.16% 1.94% -0.40% 3.11% -15.09% -0.14% 7.68% -10.15%

UTX 51.63 0.12 0.23% 0.49% 1.41% 2.95% 0.25% 4.26% 1.04% 7.63%

PG 55.92 -0.04 -0.07% 0.00% 2.03% -0.21% 1.32% 3.23% 1.41% 5.13%

GE 34.02 0.04 0.12% -0.09% 0.86% -0.58% -7.02% 0.03% -6.02% -3.05%

AXP 49.40 -0.33 -0.66% -0.28% 4.77% -0.84% -11.64% -11.55% -7.70% -10.10%

BA 65.28 -0.22 -0.34% -0.55% -1.12% -3.00% 28.08% -1.49% 8.29% 29.04%

C 45.60 0.15 0.33% -0.65% 2.91% 0.42% -5.53% 3.83% -2.92% -1.06%

SBC 23.66 0.14 0.60% -0.96% 2.87% 4.00% -7.54% -4.37% -0.59% -9.42%

KO 42.30 -0.28 -0.66% -1.24% 0.88% 0.24% 1.83% -4.64% -3.71% 2.27%

MO 74.03 -0.26 -0.35% -1.44% 1.45% 2.17% 22.10% 9.59% 10.91% 36.51%

MMM 75.13 -0.01 -0.01% -1.46% 0.32% 4.74% -8.82% 2.43% -2.87% -3.78%

GM 26.77 0.16 0.60% -1.80% -5.27% -5.37% -33.57% -25.74% -18.38% -32.23%

VZ 30.90 0.07 0.23% -2.52% 4.67% 1.01% -23.68% -8.31% -10.95% -24.78%

JNJ 60.88 -0.32 -0.52% -3.29% -4.98% -0.75% -3.21% -5.10% -10.76% 2.80%

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 5, 2005 07:07:26 AM | Category:

Discourse

Okay, so treasury yields are increasing day to day almost, inflation is on the rise, we have weaker jobs data, yadda, yadda, yadda, yadda so that must mean the market will melt.....UP. Gahd this is frustrating, Bill. (Patience, Mark, patience.)

Posted by: MarkM at November 5, 2005 8:38 AM [link]

4Q rallies 9 of last 10 years (looking at NYA). Single down year 2000 only down slightly. Lots of things to worry about many of those years but most certainly in 2001 and 2002. Seasonality trumps.

Upside to trend line resistance modest at 4-5%.

Negatives will likely come home when seasonality fades... 12/31. While WS talks about 'best 6 months'... beware. Since entering this trading range in 1999 (7 years) 1Q performance favors the dark side.

Playing current rally requires one to be nimble. Downside to 2006 lows (much) more meaningful than most believe in my opinion.

Posted by: stockman at November 5, 2005 9:58 AM [link]

Bill-
Found this article that speaks to a bullish USD going to 95-100 before beginning another bear cycle:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-4062.htm

I could see this if the Fed raises through Spring 2006 and gold hits a cycle low in the $440-$450 range.

It has been amazing to watch the Yen get smoked lately against the dollar....

Posted by: mike_wilmot at November 5, 2005 11:12 AM [link]