Bill Cara: Why I was so pissed yesterday at Leslie Wines, Thurs., Oct. 27, 2005, 5:10 PM

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October 27, 2005

Why I was so pissed yesterday at Leslie Wines, Thurs., Oct. 27, 2005, 5:10 PM

Yesterday I reacted to a MarketWatch article that talked about yearning and pining for a rally that the writer, Leslie Wines, presumably thought was just starting. I gave it a Cara Dubious Feat Award.

You see, the Cara Crystal Ball was screaming at me to stop my readers from getting caught by that nonsense.

And btw Pedrolx, what was your point yesterday in the reader comment mail? I admit I am assertive, but were you saying I'm going to be wrong, or that I didn't see this coming, or that you think the Street is going to have their rally, or that... (what?).

You know, blogging is a terrible medium for those wishing to be fully communicative, but I know that reader comments are worse because readers try to be very brief, and they too often become excessively so. When I do the blogging so quickly, I often misunderstand what the reader is trying to say in their comments. So the point often gets lost.

I try hard to do what it is I do. Although it's not easy to put oneself out there in the ether, I think I'm successful. More important to me, I think I am a credible and caring person.

I'm also frequently wrong in capital markets. But I don't think I'm ever as wrong as say Leslie Wines or say Donald Luskin, who will become the next recipient of the Cara Dubious Feat Award.

And I think my readers know that.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 27, 2005 05:10:48 PM | Category: Cara Dubious Feat Awards

Discourse

I read Pedrolx the same way you did. A shot across the bow.

Now that the bond market has started tanking (some recovery today) let's see if it will drag the weakest index, the Dow, down with it. It has to break the 10200 support and if so will go as you say to 9800 or 9200. I think that your colleague Pring has shown the two bottom within 1-3 months of each other with bonds usually leading the way.

Posted by: MarkM at October 27, 2005 7:14 PM [link]

Bill,

PFE held up well today with $21 providing short term support. I hope it doesn't break higher with the broad market trending lower. No one said this was easy.

g034

Posted by: g034 at October 27, 2005 9:40 PM [link]

Hi Bill,

You are right, I tried to be brief and I guess I did not make my point clear. Sorry about that.
Although I dont blog I recognize itÂ´s not easy to expose yourself and your opinions out there (blogger or reader). When I used the word "assetive" its because when you write about the markets you write about much more than the markets. And I like that. That is why I follow your blog every day.
The markets and all good things in life, is much more than numbers. ThatÂ´s why trading is more of an art than science. That does not mean I allways agree with you but your opinions and knowledge shape some of mine. In the past I find myself being constantly more bullish than you, but as I get older (IÂ´m 31) and depend more and more on trading as a living, IÂ´m getting bearish :)
This time I agree with you.
I think the market is going to breakdown. I just happen to disagree when it will happen. From your posts I get the impression you are waiting to happen anytime now, and I think that it will only happen early next year because Wall Street fund managers can not afford to have a 2005 with negative results.
Specially when I follow earnings in the financial sector and the expression "record profits" keeps popping up. Some (few) in the press would love to make headlines with bankers getting big checks while customers loose money with funds (remember all indices are negative for the year).
Thats why IÂ´m not surprised with the reaction of CNBC, marketwatch or some wallstreet sharks that show up everyday on bloomberg to cheer up stocks.
My opinion is: wall street will have their santa rally and then the bears will party :)
By the way, IÂ´m a party guy so I plan to be there when santa comes :)

Thanks.

Posted by: pedrolx at October 28, 2005 5:32 AM [link]

Pedro-

This thing has been bouncing between 10200 and 10400. However, the swings are now 1 or 2 day eventsinstead of taking a week or two. I take that as a sign that it is ready to move. Just shaking out shorts and distributing a few last times. My opinion only.

Posted by: MarkM at October 28, 2005 7:44 AM [link]