After all, stocks are merely prices. They are not our children, or some corporation we run, where control is necessary. Besides, nobody can control stock prices (unless they are penny stocks, which is why advise against trading them). All we can do is try to stay on the right side of trend.

As you know, my forecast is bearish for U.S. equity markets, with a long-term cycle bottom for the Dow 30 to be established at about the Dow=9200 level. Moreover I believe that long-term traders, i.e., those with a greater than one-year time horizon for equity purchases, ought to be 80 pct in cash.

I also believe that four years after a cycle bottom, the Dow 30 index will rise to a record high in the 14000-range. That's because the global economy is growing at a +3 pct clip, and the Dow 30 corporations are in a mindset to buyback shares and raise dividends, so growth rates will be well ahead of +3 pct. Ergo Dow 14000 in four to five years.

One conundrum is, of course, the possibility for global inflation, which brings rising interest rates, which at some point could severely damage the real estate market (and discourage the millions of homeowners enjoying the Wealth Effect). If interest rates get too high, the usual economic growth would be curtailed. There could be recession or possibly even depression.

I don't think in those terms, but there is a possibility.

My problem is do I buy equities and bonds now if prices are going lower and yields higher? I really don't want to use my ammunition now, and then get stuck with negative returns for a year or more. Moreover, if that scenario plays out, my performance after the eventual cycle bottom would be significantly less than possible, or than I expect to earn for myself.

But this was a strange week to make decisions. For the Dow 30 alone there were some very strange trades: MO, HON, CAT, and MMM, for instance, confused me.

As for the full Dow, 15 this week were up and 15 down. And even the Dow (and S&P 500) went south and the Nasdaq went north.

And as for the ten ETF's I follow closely: five were up and five down. Also confusing to me: while XLE and XLU went south, XLB (Basic Materials) went north; and Consumer Staples (XLP) went north, but Consumer Discretionary (XLY) went south.

Moreover, XLF and the consumer lending stocks went north as the yield spread on the U.S. 30-year-3-month Treasuries dropped to a cycle low of just +93 basis points, which indicates that there is almost as much risk in holding fixed income over the next 26 years (the remaining term of the 30-year T-Bond) as there is in the next 13 weeks. It also indicates that lenders are going to have a tough time making money on their usual carry trade, but traders don't seem to mind.

I don't know why.

I have to know why.

Otherwise, how could I know which side of trend to position my holdings? That is the ONLY truly important concept in trading " whether you are a Intra-Day Trader or an Extra-Year Trader.

So I spent a day trying to resolve my conundrum, and I came to a few conclusions. Very few!

I decided that the trend is still bearish; that stocks and bonds are still going to go south. As to the Dow 30, the cycle bottom could in fact be 9800 (which is "4 pct lower) or 9200 (-10 pct lower). Since I don't have a strong feeling on that one, I decided to give you some insights I have on individual Dow 30 stocks.

I'll spend more time on the U.S. equities section today. Maybe next week I'll have a better handle on international equities, interest rates, commodities and forex.

---

Portfolio/Trades: Dismal performance after a good start

U.S. Sector ETFs: Same recommendations (i.e., 80-pct cash, with the balance as follows:)
10: Over-weighted: lower PE's (XLE "4.8 pct) but growing value
15: Over-weighted: waiting on China to revalue, lower raw material costs
20: Minimally over-weighted: export manufacturers will like lower USD
25: Market-weighted: still no money for Fords or Maytags
30: Market-weighted: defensive stocks fall less in a bear phase
35: Market-weighted: also defensive, but with some promise
40: Under-weighted: troubles with narrowing yield spread, rising yields
45: Under-weighted: weak unit growth, but signs of promise
50: Under-weighted: negative issues may go away in time
55: Under-weighted: debt service worries (XLU "1.7 pct)

Bonds: Late-in-week bull trap; real estate market still in doubt

Commodities: Pullback but still high, means high raw material costs

Oil & Gas: Prices dropped again but will stay strong from storm damage/winter's approach

Gold: Central bank sales cannot match foreign buying; USD is depreciating faster than real wealth" is growing

Goldminers: Still buying dips, and looking to buy smaller caps as Gold headed for $500, but two steps forward (maybe) for one back

Forex: Termination of the USD's short-term bullish phase? Not happening yet as international holdings being sold and capital repatriated. Flight to safety

International Equities: EWJ (Japan), EWU (UK) and EWC (Canada) were down "3.24 pct, -2.94 pct, and "2.10 pct W/W: international traders are showing their nervousness, and sending capital back to the U.S.

U.S. Equities : Dow 30 Index is down to 10215, but loss this week was just "0.70 pct (and S&P 500 -0.59 pct) vs gain of +0.84 pct for the googlified Nasdaq

---

Inflation and inflation-fighting interest rates are the capital markets' biggest fears at this time. Both stocks and bonds are being affected.

Interestingly, both the Dow 30 index had my 10-ETF monitor were totally mixed this week: the Dow had 15 up stocks and 15 down, and my ETF monitor was 5 up and 5 down. But when you look deeper into the individual components, both the Dow and the Equity ETF's had much bigger losers than winners.

I continue to believe that any bump that occurs in U.S. equities here is from short covering. After an individual bump (say like UTX on the 19th) there doesn't seem to be any follow-through. The RSI's seem to go quickly negative again, which is an indication of ‘pump and dump'.

As I pointed out a week ago, an intra-day trading event will not likely impact on the more important trends in the Daily, Weekly and Monthly price series data.

The Bulls are spinning the economic data on inflation now as a positive (we've passed the peak!"), but the truth is clearly the opposite. The global inflation that America is importing in the form of much higher import prices is a fact. There were spectacular rises in U.S. Month over Month import prices, and PPI/CPI data, which are being exacerbated by record high trade deficits.

These figures would have been worse had the USD not been so strong based on investment flows. But government spending and fiscal deficits are going to worsen the outlook for the USD sooner than later.

The picture did look not so bad for a time based on higher taxes being collected earlier in the year, which came from +4 pct economic growth, and taxes on extra dividends and capital gains in the equity market (helped along by share buybacks and excessive trading in the Googles).

But at economic growth below +3 pct, and less trading, this growth in taxes will likely fall away, but the trade deficits will continue (as American capitalists outsource manufacturing jobs to India and China where there is cheap labor and no healthcare/environmental protection costs to worry about).

So the repatriation of USD is likely to be short-lived because it is losing its value at home.

One new factor that may come into the mix is the attitude change of Americans with respect to fighting wars abroad. This is one topic I intend to avoid because it is so emotional (and I grew up during the painful Vietnam years), but I'd point to the weekend news-type shows on Dateline and CNN that is now focusing on homeland support for the Administration that appears to be rapidly dissolving.

I recall too the huge surge in inflation in the post-Vietnam years, which is likely being repeated at present. And that is the Bulls greatest fear: slowing economy and rising inflation. That's why they try to tell you the exact opposite is happening.

---

ETF Portfolio:

On Monday I sold XLF at 29.13, and bought TSX: XGD at 53.03. By mid-week, I had my doubts as to whether I had done the right move.

In earlier weeks I sold the IYZ @ 23.50 (two weeks ago) and the EWH (a week ago) at 13.03. I bought the XLP at 22.75 (two weeks ago) and the IYH (a week ago) at 60.54.

Short:
XLF (29.36)
IYZ (22.42)
EWH (12.62)

Long:
TSX: XGD (50.99)
XLP (22.87)
IYH (59.90)

Clearly, I moved into XLF for all the right reasons, but with bad timing. I think I will be exonerated. This week traders were watching all the impressive gains in revenue and earnings for the prior quarter, which is unlikely to continue, and next week or two, traders will be focused on the rising rates/yields, and narrowing yield spread.

I also moved into gold too quickly. If Goldfinger hadn't issued his Bullish forecast on the golds at noon Friday, I'd really be in a pickle.

And how can I make any money with IYH if Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Merck (NYSE: MRK) are getting smashed. If my crystal ball had warned me that PFE and MRK would be down "12.62 pct and "3.61 pct W/W respectively, I would definitely not have bought IYH a week ago! It must have been raining that day.

I am feeling under the weather right about now. How can Goldfinger be down "3.84 pct in less than five days on his XGD when he claims so much expertise? His Friday call had better be a good one, or else.

---

Sector ETF:

Here are the ETF charts I follow for the ten sectors of the U.S. equity market:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table shows the list sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N, but please note that the Net and %Net columns show the Friday net change and pct change from Thursday. The other columns are not sorted.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
XLF	29.36	0.17	0.58%	1.00%	0.75%	0.03%	-3.48%	-2.10%	5.57%	6.57%
SMH	34.73	0.37	1.08%	0.78%	-2.03%	-4.06%	6.34%	-6.41%	10.99%	8.84%
XLB	26.52	0.24	0.91%	0.76%	-0.23%	-2.07%	-9.89%	-7.24%	-6.46%	-0.23%
XLP	22.87	-0.02	-0.09%	0.53%	0.13%	0.62%	-0.91%	-1.46%	0.04%	6.27%
IYZ	22.42	0.35	1.59%	0.45%	-1.88%	-4.19%	-7.16%	-5.00%	-1.19%	-2.22%
XLY	31.26	-0.06	-0.19%	-0.45%	-1.26%	-3.19%	-10.84%	-9.13%	-1.76%	-0.95%
XLI	29.29	-0.20	-0.68%	-1.15%	-1.71%	-1.55%	-4.84%	-3.65%	-1.18%	4.50%
XLU	30.35	0.40	1.34%	-1.65%	-5.95%	-7.13%	10.24%	-4.02%	2.78%	19.11%
IYH	59.90	-0.41	-0.68%	-1.72%	-1.45%	-3.81%	2.81%	-3.70%	0.13%	12.87%
XLE	46.02	0.47	1.03%	-4.78%	-7.09%	-12.44%	31.56%	0.59%	9.70%	29.45%

You can do this table yourself by inserting the following string into the window called "Summaries" at www.investertech.com, and then clicking on "Performance". After the table comes up, you can click on various table headings for different time frames:

XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU

This week there were five ETF's up (XLF, SMH, XLB, XLP and IYZ) and five down (XLE, IYH, XLU, XLI and XLY).

Not only is the board mixed, it's mixed up!

---

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

XLE was down "4.78 pct Week over Week to 46.02. A week ago I wrote that there is a level of support at about 48". Not!

The 800-pound gorilla XOM pulled back to 55.37 " and even though I remain over-weighted inside a portfolio that is 80 pct cash, I feel XOM could go lower.

Here is a minor conundrum: I think XOM needs to get to 50-51 before the U.S. equity Bull will begin to snort and run once again. I like the XOM share buybacks and the dividend increases based on the highest positive cash flow of any corporation in history, which will continue (unless NY crude drops below 55), so I think a small position is ok for the long-term.

If I thought the Bull market would start here (and I think it's too early), then 2006 earnings for XOM at say $5 (Value Line estimates $4.95) times a 14 PE would give a 70 price. That would result in a +26 pct return on price plus a dividend yield of over 2 pct to give a nice +28 pct total return. Those are Warren Buffett numbers. I hardly believe Wall Street is going to give you that in the next 12-15 months, so I'm over-weighted (within my portfolio). Got it?

But I'm 80 pct in cash, so what I plan to do is write puts on XOM through the next couple months. I'd love to see new acquisitions in XOM (which happens to be in the Cara Global Best 100 Companies list) come in at 50-51. That way (maybe wishful thinking), my total return in say 12-15 months would be about +40 pct.

That to my thinking is a reasonable performance target because my main objective is to manage risk. There are people around like Steve Forbes (almost called him Malcolm but couldn't picture a motorcycle) who are forecasting $35 NY oil.

If that forecast is right, Steve is a better capital manager than politician or whatever else he does, and Tom McManus at Bank of America (who I think is a terrific strategist) is wrong.

And I never put my money on politicians (or magazine owning capitalists). So I am hanging in for lower prices in the energy sector, but I'm not buying XLE, and I'm waiting for XOM to drop some more before I start writing puts.

---

Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

A week ago I wrote: The basic materials group are having a tough time right now with weak economic data (i.e., pricing power issues), high raw material prices, and an overall equities bear phase to deal with. The USD also needs to drop some before the pressure comes off."

So what happens? The USD strengthens, but XLB becomes the third best performer of ten.

XLB was up +0.76 pct W/W to 26.52, and it wasn't gold that put it there. Darn it.

But there are some obvious beneficiaries in XLB (and the Dow 30) of lower energy costs, which happened this week. The GICS sector 15 stocks in the Dow 30 are AA and DD. And this week, with lower energy costs, and in the one case lower raw material costs, AA and DD were each up +1.7 pct W/W.

Here again is my conundrum: I think the Dow 30 is going lower, taking XLB with it, but I am starting to like these two stocks.

As you know, I am portfolio over-weighted. I'd even add to positions if the USD would just start to weaken. But I do think a decision is in order.

So here is what I plan to do " but before I do I just want to thank Merrill Lynch for the excellent trade they gave me last October. ML went positive on AA right at the top, and I took the short side. At least Trader Wizard did.

AA ($23.35): write puts to try to accumulate at a price of $22.50. The stock has been hammered because there are no buyers on the F and GM auto lots, but there is a hot commercial airplane market, o things are not bad, and when car buyers return (and they will some day), the aluminum producers will look good again.

On Sept. 23 there was a gap down from 26 to 24, and then a slide down to about 22.50. Now that I see the support there, that's my price.

DD ($38.64): is a very earnings predictable company. When raw material costs and energy costs are high, and the USD is high, DD's earnings fall or stay under pressure. These factors are easing. I think DD is going to earn $3 next year and carry a 16.5 PE, which gives me a forecasted price of ay $49.50 and a dividend yield based on today's price of about 4 pct. So by writing some puts on weakness, and getting filled at say $37.50, my total return for the next 12-15 months is in the +36 pct range. And those are better than Buffett numbers, and much better than Wall Street is going to give you.

So why fight the Trader Wizard?

---

Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

XLI weakened again this week, down "1.15 pct to 29.29 and getting closer to its support at about 29, which is unlikely to hold.

A week ago I made some comments about GE's Jeff Immelt doing his best impression of Jack Welch, but being burdened by holding much profit-generating capacity in GE Capital that doesn't generate so much profit when the bond yield curve flattens and interest rates rise.

I look at the companies in the GICS 20 sector and the Dow 30, like GE, BA, CAT, HON, MMM, and UTX and I see as many real problems as anything that looks good.

Sure BA ($66.02) has strong commercial aircraft sales, but all the production slots are already taken and the cash flows estimated by Wall Street. Now what happens if the military spending cuts back.

BA ($66.02) had a tough week, down "2.2 pct W/W (albeit "1.9 pct was Friday, which makes me think the Gnomes in New England and Westchester County have decided the broad market needs to drop another level).

In fact the seven biggest losers of the Dow (PFE "12.62 pct, CAT "10.63 pct, HON "8.01 pct, XOM "5.58 pct, MRK "3.61 pct, PG "2.32 pct, BA "2.19 pct, GE "1.78 pct), plus a throw-in UTX down "1.39 pct W/W represent the modern era record Westchester-Fairfield County Smackdown.

And PG fits here because the Boys in Beantown are pissed over Gillette.

You see, these guys (believe me I don't see too many women in this group) all met a week earlier in a so-called Business Roundtable Backroom and decided to put on a brave face for the Bloomberg/CNBC camera crews at the resort. But in private they were admitting they had to face up to reality. I know; I had my fly on the wall.

So CAT took the hit on Friday, down "9.5 pct at the open. HON took the hit on Oct. 19, from 36 to 34, then a slide to 32.75. MMM had its play on Oct. 18 (according to StockCharts). And what can I say about the pop of UTX on Oct. 19 followed by zero follow-through except a sell-off. Can you say pump and dump?

So, I'm just waiting for GE to be the final shoe to drop of this sector's leadership. RSI on the GE Weekly data is 42.5, and I figure it has to dip down to 30 or lower before the broad market is going higher. Ergo: my bearishness.

I'm going to write a book about these White Plains-New Canaan guys some year. University Profs will learn something.

---

Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

XLY was down W/W by "0.45 pct to 31.26, and getting yet closer to its support at the 31-level.

This is a difficult one to try to figure. The rich people who got ‘em are smoking ‘em. That means the Bentley and Ferrari order books are overflowing, but the typical American new car lot is looking like most bowling alley's at 3 am in the morning.

This is a true story: in 1990 in the recession, when car lots were devoid of customers, I went to a Cadillac lot in Atlanta and after my final, final offer was rejected by the manager, the salesman followed me out to the sidewalk and got down on his knees on the pavement and said: Please!". I swear that is true.

Then I went out and bought a classic Rolls Royce (my wife was furious) for $20,000, drove it like crazy up and down more I's than I care to remember (20, 10 and 75 were favorites) between Atlanta, Dallas-Ft Worth-Ft. Lauderdale, taking care of 40 of my flock. After a year I drove that 7500 pound beast to Canada where I sold it for $25,000. And then my wife was happy.

Ahh, but I'll never forget losing a hub cap on I-75 in Tennessee. What with the color-match to the body paint, that sucker cost me $800 in Toronto. Still, a classic car without a hub cap is not so classic.

And I'll never forget 1990. Nobody but the rich had any money then either, and the banks were tough to deal with. I learned. I went from Dream Merchant to Dreamer.

But, I'll be ok. I've now got a crystal ball.

---

Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

XLP was down this week-0.39 pct W/W to 22.75.

My strictly defensive" XLP was up this week +0.53 pct, to 22.87. Still, I'm not too comfortable.

---

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Last week I was saying to the Gnomes thank you, thank you, thank you.

I never learn.

IYH was down this week "1.72 pct o 59.90. Ouch.

MRK (-3.6 pct) and PFE (-12.6 pct) did wonders for the IYH shorts. Unfortunately, I'm long as a so-called defensive play".

---

Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

XLF really has me stumped. For a month, XLF has outperformed the rest except for XLP. And for two weeks, XLP is the clear winner.

For reasons expressed elsewhere today, I think I was a week early in shorting XLF.

---

Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

A week ago, maybe I gave a heads-up that even I ignored: IBM was up +2.30 pct and except for just three bad days a week ago HPQ seems to have found a new life under its new CEO. This is just a reminder that the Technology sector (GICS 45) is not just semiconductors (SMH). When it comes to this huge sector, I really ought to study more industry groups for you, but what the hey, it's free, and I only can sit at a keyboard for so many hours on a Saturday."

So today is a Sunday. I'm now working seven days a week, and my son is coming over shortly for an early birthday celebration. I never toast stocks with champagne, but my children are different, so I had better bring this report to a rapid conclusion.

---

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

Yes I did short IYZ and yes IYZ was up +0.45 pct this week to 22.42. But it was two weeks ago I shorted IYZ at 23.50. Small miracles do happen. :-)

I'm going to write about IYZ this week in the blog because I may have to close my short. I'm nervous. All the bad news on SBC and VZ is out. I need interest rates/bond yields to go north or else my short could go south.

I still think they are going to fall in price, though.

---

Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

Last week I wrote: You go girl. XLU dropped "4.37 pct this week after a week ago being down -3.96 pct. XLU is now down to 30.86, which is a far cry (and a lot of crying) from its high just two-weeks ago of 34.05. That two-week loss in XLU ("9.4 pct off the high) is a terrible loss of capital. So how great are those annual 2 and 3 pct dividends now? Besides if XLU can fall from 34 to 16 (into 3Q02), it can also fall from 34 to a lot lower price than 30.86, which it is today."

Well, now XLU is 30.35 because it lost a further "1.65 pct this week.

---

Bonds:

I still think THE BIG PLAY IS COMING. But it didn't happen this week. This week, the Bond King got me back. The Friday trading in TLT and most of the treasuries went against me. The interest-sensitive equities went against me by the end of the week. In fact the past couple weeks has been unkind. So I'm not going to say much.

I see a yield spread between the 30-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury market down to the shocking low of 93 bp. How low can it go?

I also see some other changes in the bond market that make me think that maybe Alan Greenspan's speech in China was effective. His monetary policy seems to have started working.

He says it's all right to hold cash, and he'll crank up the short rates to make it interesting for you. In fact, this month alone the 3-month T-Bill rate has lifted from 3.37 (Oct. 1) to 3.67 (Friday). That is huge. It could suck dollars out of the stock market. Also, the yields on the 2-year to 10-year Treasury paper has moved up from +4 bp on the two-year to +6 and 7 on the 5-and-10-year paper. That puts a lot more pressure on the mortgage market. The bond money has shifted from the mid to the long-term paper.

I'm guessing that is foreigners helping out the Fed slowly rein in the inflation problem (and the rose on the housing boom).

Still, I think bonds are headed further south.

And I'm not going to make another comment about the interest-rate sensitive market until next week sometime. The charts below speak volumes.

Yes, Friday was painful.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

U.S. Treasury Bonds
Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.67	3.65	3.61	3.19
6 Month	3.96	3.96	3.91	3.61
2 Year	4.19	4.21	4.24	3.91
3 Year	4.22	4.24	4.28	3.93
5 Year	4.24	4.29	4.33	3.97
10 Year	4.38	4.43	4.47	4.17
30 Year	4.60	4.65	4.70	4.45
Municipal Bonds
Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.77	2.77	2.75	2.54
2yr AAA	2.74	2.76	2.79	2.56
2yr A	2.77	2.79	2.72	2.73
5yr AAA	3.12	3.12	3.13	2.91
5yr AA	3.18	3.17	3.19	2.91
5yr A	3.18	3.18	3.26	2.95
10yr AAA	3.62	3.62	3.72	3.44
10yr AA	3.60	3.62	3.55	3.43
10yr A	3.75	3.75	3.70	3.56
20yr AAA	4.07	4.07	4.22	3.93
20yr AA	4.04	4.04	4.35	3.96
20yr A	4.15	4.23	4.35	4.07
Corporate Bonds
Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.29	4.30	4.29	3.96
2yr A	4.38	4.40	4.37	4.07
5yr AAA	4.47	4.53	4.48	4.15
5yr AA	4.54	4.58	4.59	4.22
5yr A	4.57	4.64	4.64	4.30
10yr AAA	4.96	5.02	4.95	4.65
10yr AA	4.90	4.94	5.00	4.66
10yr A	4.95	5.02	5.06	4.73
20yr AAA	5.27	5.39	5.32	5.12
20yr AA	5.62	5.66	5.68	5.41
20yr A	5.70	5.71	5.76	5.51

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

$CRB closed down "1.57 pct W/W to 322.51, and is the smaller number I predicted a week ago.

The M50Day (324.89) did not hold. Crude oil also did break downward a bit, as forecasted, and it could now go to the 55-60 level, which would take the $CRB down another peg. Still the long-term trend is up.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil contracts (NY Crude EOD chart at StockCharts) dropped this week to 60.63, which was down "2.19 pct W/W. It is a little weaker than I thought.

Whether this has anything to do with Refco fall-out I don't know. I think it has more to do with the hurricane season coming to an end and Wilma staying out of the northern Gulf, which leads to the day traders jumping off the bandwagon.

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Gold:

This week, $GOLD closed down 0.55 pct W/W to 466.90, and it was down "1.13 pct the week earlier. But a late-day save by Goldfinger (leading gold back up on the day) may be temporary.

A week ago I wrote: Gold is headed to $500 and higher. As to whether or not it happens next February 14th , I don't know." One thing I do know is that if the USD completes a double top here (along with the completion of a double bottom for the Euro (priced in USD), then gold is going higher sooner than later.

But I am nervous as to short-term direction.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The $XAU U.S. goldminers index was down again this week, down "1.89 pct W/W to 104.93. It had been flattened a week earlier by "5.5 pct.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. This week, XGD was down "2.02 pct to 50.99. A week earlier it too was crushed, down "5.52 pct.

So minutes after I made a call on buying gold/gold shares, the Xgd was up Friday +4.4 pct, and the $XAU was up +2.9 pct. I may be good (at times), but I'm not big enough to carry the global gold market on my back. Not in 2005 anyway. I truly do not know why gold took off a couple minutes after I put out my Alert on Friday at noon.

Who knows, maybe the Gnomes of Zurich and Saudi Arabia are following my blog now?

Last week I wrote: I will buy XGD this week. I just don't know what day. I'd like to buy it at 48-50. That way if it goes back to 58, that would be a 16-21-pct gain over say a three-month period. But what I'd like to do, and what the market lets me do are often opposing arguments." So this dummy paid 53.03.

Here are the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

XGD Hourly data:

For an interactive look, here are links to the Hourly data charts of three groups of proven goldminer stocks. You can click on the tabs for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts. Note that some of these companies have mining operations in countries where the currency and the operating costs are rising or falling relative to similar operations in different countries. Also, some produce greater or lesser percentages of gold, silver, copper, and so forth, which have prices that may not move synchronously.

List #1

List #2

List #3

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Forex:

The trade-weighted USD index is now at 90.27. It was up +1.03 pct W/W.

I think the earlier top at 90.77 is the ceiling this time around as well. I am thinking there will be a Double Top.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) was down "1.26 pct W/W to 119.42.

I think the earlier bottom at 118.87 is the floor this time around too. I am thinking there will be a Double Bottom.

I sure hope I'm right. But with falling oil prices, I am confused. And without a falling USD, my gold forecast will likely not work out for a while.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

The cracks in the international markets are happening, not only in the main ones I follow, but also in Russia, India, and so forth. This week, Japan, UK and Canadian equity markets were off large!

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

This week, EWJ was down "3.24 pct to 11.65. I predicted the world would be saying "sayonara". I told you a couple weeks ago, right on the mark, it was the time to say good-bye.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The U.K. ETF (EWU) was down this week "2.94 pct to 17.84. It's been a tough month for the Brits.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The Canadian EWC closed the week at 19.54, which was down "2.10 pct W/W.

Not good, but better than the UK and Japan, and many other international markets.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

I have already said enough this week about the U.S. equity market. Nasdaq encountered GOOG, which took this market up +0.84 pct W/W. But that was the extent of the good news for the broad U.S. equity markets.

The Dow 30 index was down "0.70 pct W/W to 10,215.22. S&P 500 was down "0.59 pct to 1179.58. And the Russell small cap index was almost flat, down "0.07 pct to 632.73.

All in all, it was a strange week. There were 15 down Dow stocks, and 15 that were up. But seven of the losers were down by "2.0 pct or more. Four were down over "5.5 pct, and two were down over "10.0 pct.

That is an immense amount of portfolio damage. It was not just related to commodity prices (linked to Refco) either. XOM was only the fourth worst performer. The big industrial giants did not do well. Next week, all eyes will be on GE to see if it is the next industrial conglomerate to hit the skids.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

Symbol	Close	Net	%Net	1W %Net	2W %Net	4W %Net	YTD %Net	3M %Net	6M %Net	Yr %Net
MMM	74.89	-0.01	-0.01%	5.90%	4.41%	3.23%	-9.11%	0.46%	-3.85%	-3.49%
SBC	23.00	0.46	2.04%	3.60%	1.10%	-3.24%	-10.12%	-2.99%	-0.78%	-10.44%
MO	72.97	0.27	0.37%	3.27%	0.70%	1.47%	20.35%	10.90%	11.73%	54.21%
HD	39.65	0.08	0.20%	3.20%	4.89%	2.91%	-8.00%	-8.54%	8.13%	-0.20%
JPM	35.13	0.38	1.09%	3.08%	3.63%	3.11%	-10.27%	-0.76%	0.26%	-6.82%
DD	38.64	-0.13	-0.34%	1.68%	2.01%	-0.36%	-21.34%	-12.46%	-20.23%	-9.17%
AA	23.35	-0.01	-0.04%	1.65%	1.26%	-4.38%	-24.65%	-18.44%	-20.98%	-26.46%
WMT	45.72	0.12	0.26%	1.51%	3.84%	5.83%	-14.30%	-7.43%	-4.31%	-12.26%
IBM	83.33	0.16	0.19%	1.19%	3.52%	6.83%	-14.75%	-1.27%	12.56%	-5.41%
GM	28.26	-0.12	-0.42%	1.00%	-0.11%	-9.04%	-29.88%	-21.48%	8.65%	-25.79%
AIG	62.92	0.22	0.35%	0.77%	1.70%	4.76%	-4.71%	3.91%	21.23%	11.46%
JNJ	64.07	-0.10	-0.16%	0.58%	4.45%	0.13%	1.86%	0.14%	-6.18%	10.89%
MCD	32.48	0.08	0.25%	0.50%	0.81%	-0.49%	2.07%	5.52%	8.81%	13.88%
MSFT	24.78	-0.01	-0.04%	0.45%	0.77%	-1.94%	-7.33%	-6.28%	-1.98%	0.45%
HPQ	27.57	0.15	0.55%	0.11%	1.73%	-3.16%	30.97%	13.50%	30.79%	50.16%
KO	41.93	-0.19	-0.45%	-0.33%	-0.64%	-0.99%	0.94%	-4.60%	-0.12%	6.21%
INTC	23.15	-0.47	-1.99%	-0.34%	-2.81%	-5.05%	0.35%	-14.35%	-0.90%	6.73%
VZ	29.52	0.32	1.10%	-1.27%	-3.50%	-8.21%	-27.09%	-13.63%	-13.84%	-25.81%
UTX	50.91	-0.91	-1.76%	-1.39%	1.52%	-1.53%	-1.15%	-1.72%	-0.55%	11.84%
C	44.31	-0.03	-0.07%	-1.62%	-2.42%	-2.06%	-8.20%	0.36%	-4.24%	3.17%
AXP	47.15	-0.21	-0.44%	-1.67%	-5.36%	-17.14%	-15.67%	-13.22%	-6.45%	-9.83%
DIS	22.98	0.02	0.09%	-1.75%	-4.65%	-1.03%	-17.49%	-10.09%	-16.95%	-9.17%
GE	33.73	-0.15	-0.44%	-1.78%	-1.43%	0.99%	-7.82%	-3.63%	-6.62%	1.08%
BA	66.02	-1.28	-1.90%	-2.19%	-1.90%	4.46%	29.53%	0.47%	11.75%	33.21%
PG	54.81	-0.36	-0.65%	-2.32%	-2.19%	-3.40%	-0.69%	-0.58%	1.14%	2.22%
MRK	26.18	-0.74	-2.75%	-3.61%	2.67%	-5.21%	-16.25%	-16.57%	-23.63%	-16.25%
XOM	55.37	0.11	0.20%	-5.58%	-7.10%	-13.32%	10.54%	-4.35%	-6.60%	13.44%
HON	33.21	-0.15	-0.45%	-8.01%	-9.14%	-11.39%	-5.92%	-13.83%	-8.69%	0.64%
CAT	48.92	-5.11	-9.46%	-10.63%	-13.60%	-16.97%	2.92%	-6.46%	9.12%	27.03%
PFE	21.25	-0.65	-2.97%	-12.62%	-12.87%	-14.59%	-19.66%	-20.08%	-21.93%	-25.23%

This performance chart of the Dow 30 shows 15 stocks down and 15 up this week. That's the same totals as last week, but much different detail. Lets take a look at what happened:

The five winners on the week:

MMM, up +5.90 pct:
SBC, +3.60 pct:
MO, up +3.27 pct:
HD, up +3.20 pct:
JPM, up +3.08 pct:

The seven biggest losers on the week (since I had to show you all the losers over "2 pct):

PFE, down "12.62 pct:
CAT, down "10.63 pct:
HON, down "8.01 pct:
XOM, down "5.58 pct:
MRK, down "3.61 pct:
PG, down "2.32 pct:
BA, down "2.19 pct:

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

(AA) (AA) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jan. 20)

(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the Aug 26 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Nov. 25)

(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the Aug 26 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Nov. 25)

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Sep. 23 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Dec. 23)

(C) (C) (Here is the Aug 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Nov. 25)

(CAT) (CAT) (Here is the Jul. 29 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Oct. 28)

(DD) (DD) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jan. 20)

(DIS) (DIS) (Here is the Aug. 19 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Nov 18)

(GE) (GE) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jan. 13)

(GM) (GM) Here is the Sep. 2 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Dec. 2)

(HD) (HD) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jan. 6)

(HON) (HON) (Here is the Jul. 29 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Oct. 28)

(HPQ) (HPQ) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jan. 13)

(IBM) (IBM) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jan. 13)

(INTC) (INTC) (Here is the Oct. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jan. 13)

(JNJ) (JNJ) Here is the Sep. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Dec. 2)

(JPM) (JPM) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on JPM: the one that was due Aug 26 was not published for some reason; next one due is Nov. 25)

(KO) (KO) (Here is the Aug. 5 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Nov. 4)

(MCD) (MCD) (Here is the Sept. 9 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Dec. 9)

(MMM) (MMM) (Here is the Aug 19 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Nov 18)

(MO) (MO) (Here is the Aug. 5 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Nov. 4)

(MRK) (MRK) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jan. 20)

(MSFT) (MSFT) (Here is the Aug 26 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Nov. 25)

(PFE) (PFE) (Here is the Oct. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jan. 20)

(PG) (PG) (Here is the Oct. 7 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jan. 6)

(SBC) (SBC) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on SBC: next one is due Dec. 30)

(UTX) (UTX) (Here is the Jul. 29 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Oct. 28)

(VZ) (VZ) (Here is the Sep. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Dec. 30)

(WMT) (WMT) (Here is the Aug 12 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Nov. 11)

(XOM) (XOM) (Here is the Sep. 16 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Dec. 16)

The Value Line Reports for this week are AA, DD, MRK and PFE. Note that Value Line did not publish a JPM report on Aug. 26, for whatever reason. I'll ask them.

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Wrap up

It's been a slice. I now have a birthday party to attend, and a little champagne to drink. :-)

BCara@BillCara.com