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October 22, 2005

Week #42 (2005-10-22) in Review prelim note

As the capital markets have arrived at a potential trend reversal juncture, I decided to spend the day today researching rather than writing. I'll publish my full report tomorrow.

At this point, I'll hold to my previous forecast that the most likely outcome for U.S. equity markets is bearish with a long-term cycle bottom for the Dow 30 to be established at about the Dow=9200 level, and that long-term traders, i.e., those with a greater than one-year time horizon for equity purchases, ought to be 80 pct in cash.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 22, 2005 08:26:52 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

Bill-
Any comments you can make around the USD and how repatriation is inflating the value of the USD would be helpful.
Thx-
MW

http://www.americanshareholders.com/news/article.php?article=185

Posted by: mike_wilmot [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 22, 2005 4:41 PM [link]

Goldfinger-
As I was reviewing my charts this weekend it struck me that since the introduction of gold ETFs (11/04) that mining stocks have not traded as well as one would expect relative to gold. Is this new alternative method of hedging inflation risks bleeding away money flows? Given the relatively high beta in the miners relative to gold it's interesting that the ratio of the mining index to gold appears about the same today as it was 5 years ago (although both have doubled+/-). Thoughts?

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 23, 2005 12:06 PM [link]