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October 3, 2005
Just another headfake, Mon., Oct. 3, 2005, 6:20 PM
Late last week, I noted that the broad equity market had run up strongly for no apparent reason, or at least one I could see. Then this morning, for half an hour, I observed more of the same as the Dow moved sharply higher to 10,608.
So now the game has been played and the Gnomes have left their fingerprints, and everybody can see that this was just another headfake.
As soon as the ISM manufacturing index was published, it was apparent to me that stocks and bonds would behave badly, and I pointed that out. As it turned out, the Dow dropped a lot today to close at 10,535.
The earlier power move was, in my view, simply contrived in an attempt to keep the Dow inside a narrow sideways trading band after receipt of the very negative economic news that certain people knew would be released today at 10am. The following chart shows how their game has worked.

A few minutes ago I watched, with minimal interest really, a self-styled guru by the name of Don Luskin, bring his comedic styling to the Kudlow stage. I usually pay zero attention to these pompous Talking Heads, but I could not overlook the arrogance of the man's call on gold.
Gold bullion (spot) today closed at $464.20 (GLD = 46.42) before Luskin made his call. So let's count out the 30 days, and see how successful a forecaster Luskin proves to be. He confidently stated that gold would be $30 to $40 lower, so that would take GLD to a range of 42.42 to 43.42 by the market close on October 31.
Yes, it is appropriate that gold settle back and test its new higher support level. After all, it had quite a run up. But let's get something clear: Luskin (or is it Kreskin?) called for the complete break in the support of gold. I'm telling you to buy the dips, which you will likely see this week, and that gold is definitely not broken.
If Luskin is right, then I'll publish some appropriate remarks. If he's wrong, I'm going to ask my readers to permanently tune out the Amazing Mentalist Luskin. That should be his last attempt to spin you.
It being Halloween that evening, should he fail to trick us, perhaps I'll have the Trader Wizard concoct a special treat, in response.
I hope I'm right because there is no place in my world for people like him, and it will be a joy to close the book.
Now everybody is entitled to his or her opinion, but when it becomes part of a collective production, with a larger objective in mind, I draw the line.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 3, 2005 06:20:55 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
