Bill, I was watching CNBC (C'mon Now Buy Chumps) and Pasani is on the floor stating how today the market is up because the "economy is good". Yet every time the market is down the hacks report "the market is down BECAUSE..." and then insert the hotest flavor of bullsh*t available. In the history of CNBC has any member of the cast ever uttered "the market is down because the economy is bad?"
p.s. any other anagrams for CNBC?

Well, my call on bonds going lower was correct, we actually saw new highs in the 10 yr. yield at 4.6%, but my guess on stocks selling off due to this was way off to say the least.

I wanted to pull the trigger on PFE (due to reasons found in comments for the Wed. 26th Cramer Legacy post), but the stock rally doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I can always buy it next week...truth be told I am chomping at the bit but experience says to wait, there is a lot of upside in this trade if it works out.

g034

Over at Real$ I made note that Marcin, Cramer, DePorre and Smith have all suggested that they believe the lows are in. Birinyi just put a report out showing historic support for that position.

These are all veterans and it appears that a concensus is forming... is that a good thing?

Even those negative in 2006 seem to expect a tradable rally here. It's the obvious trade here isn't it?

However I am looking at that trend up in bond yields (as is g034) AND the deterioration in the NYA relative to the SPX. Both red flags in my book. It also concerns me that the prior leadership energy, utes and homies seem to be in hot hands.

That being said if solid new leadership emerges and these red flags are resolved I would have to go with the flow.

As a former portfolio manager at a large firm, I would not get paid on cash assets over a specific percentage (due to investment policy), so as I raised cash in what I perceived as a downtrending market to protect my client's portfolios (in addition to puts), there was a definite urge to look for "safe" stocks to buy at the end of a month/quarter during a downtrend. I admit it, I was thinking about my family and the revenue that I was bringing into the firm. Fortunately I never got caught up in that nonsense and lost client's money because I was greedy, but this unfortunate policy makes many managers buy stocks in the face of falling prices at the end of a quarter/month. Look at the end of 2004 and the subsequent sell off in 2005. IMHO, that year end rally was brought about by managers and the same process will be seen again and again and again and.....

If portfolio managers at that firm are 80% cash now, they will have a very skinny Holiday Season this year.....though they will probably be sleeping better on Sunday nights!

BTW, I now work for myself.

g034

g034-
If you want the clearest sign not to buy PFE yet it's because I DID! :) I missed WMT at my price and have been kicking myself since. Just trade against me and you'll do alright.