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October 4, 2005

Country risk needs to be assessed, Tues., Oct. 4, 2005, 10:09 AM

One of the greatest concerns of international traders is to invest in companies where their major operations are located in countries that become politically and economically unstable.

Venezuela under President Hugo Chavez is a country that is giving major concerns for traders at present. Now I'm not going to pass any comment on the politics or economics of Venezuela, but I will say that when I see front-page news items that indicate instability in a country, I always turn to the JP Morgan website www.adr.com.

In this case, I hit Accept" (user terms), hit ADR Universe", click on Venezuela in the drop down window under Country", hit Submit, and voila... there is a list of Venezuela stocks that trade in the U.S.

By following up the related price charts, you will quickly see what foreign investors are thinking about these Venezuela-based companies.

For foreign-based companies that operate in Venezuela, you can use other sources like Yahoo, Hoovers and the like, to derive a list.

This morning I was alerted to new rules of ownership related to minerals (oil and metals) concessions granted by the Venezuelan government to foreign investors. There is concern now about the rule of law, which is to say if the law can be changed after the fact to benefit one of the parties, there really is no law.

Uncertainty is the bane of traders, requiring study at all times, particularly so if there is a country risk involved.

There are a few foreign-controlled goldminers operating in Venezuela. I have presented the charts below. You will note that prices have been reacting to the political risks there. There was a major fall-out on Sept. 20.

The players are:
Bolivar Gold: TSX: BGC
Crystallex: TSX and AMEX: KRY
Gold Reserve: AMEX: GRZ


Daily data charts: Bolivar Gold (top, TSX), Crystallex (middle, AMEX) and Gold Reserve (bottom, AMEX)


Hourly data charts: Bolivar Gold (top), Crystallex (middle) and Gold Reserve (bottom)

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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 4, 2005 10:10:42 AM | Category: Country Equities