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October 31, 2005

Best TV interview of the day, Mon., Oct. 31, 2005, 11:37 AM

ROBTV just completed a lengthy interview with David Rosenberg, who is the Chief North American Economist for Merrill Lynch in NYC. This 11:15 am interview will be replayed on www.robtv.com in the next hour or two, and it will be available for the rest of the week.

I urge you to watch. And if you happen to be sheep in the Cramer flock, I compel you to watch. After ten minutes of Rosenberg, or last week with CIBC's Larry Berman, I think you'll be going boo-to-you Jim".

Just for starters, Rosenberg says that he believes the U.S. housing market is overpriced by 30 pct". He thinks gold will go through $500 like a knife through butter". And he thinks that the USD can't go higher here, and that pretty soon the European and Asia Pacific banks will be tightening monetary policy there, which will catch up to the Fed moves, thereby taking the USD south and gold very much higher.

Rosenberg was basically saying these were no brainers". Actually that irked me a little because I have a tough time coming to conclusions like that, and I know that, every day, I do give data points and time frames, which puts me at great risk career wise (which btw makes it easy for me to tell you I'm retired).

Markets always have two sides. A Dow at almost 10500 and an S&P 500 at almost 1210 exists because there are precisely the same number and influence of buyers and sellers.

My point throughout this blog, however, is that sometimes people like me actually tell people the facts, and not try to cheerlead. ML's Rosenberg and CIBC's Berman and Bank of America's Tom McManus are three more.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 31, 2005 11:38:14 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

What is up with the XLF? I am thinking of closing out my short with a 4% loss at this point. I do not understand why XLF is going up (yes..I know about their strong earnings) but if (when) the fed keep raising the short term rates how can banks make money with such a flat to inverted yield curve?

Posted by: holdenll [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 31, 2005 1:31 PM [link]

Bill-
I keep hearing reasons for gold going up and the USD down, but it sure has been painful in the short run....

Posted by: mike_wilmot [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 31, 2005 1:42 PM [link]