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September 2, 2005

Katrina's legacy, Fri., September 2, 2005, 9:59 AM

There are people in very high positions in the U.S. today who are saying that nobody could have foreseen the result of Hurricane Katrina. And now you know why I am like I am.

Call me cynic or realist, or whatever, but for those who criticize me, I simply ask you to re-read the article I published on Katrina a full day before the killer storm hit.

Today seems to be a day for blame. In my case, I feel the finger pointing is missing the mark. For instance, I believe the media has done a good job reporting this event. Moreover, I believe the response by emergency services has paralleled their ability to perform under such circumstances. I see many heroes in this tragedy.

What happened here is not extreme ‘shock and awe' to me. Neither is it even a surprise. Anybody who has read my Sunday article can see that I wrote about this disaster 24-hours before it happened.

What surprises and disappoints me is that the Federal government did not declare a full-scale emergency last Sunday, and that several thousand militia and emergency water/food supplies moved at that point into the Super Dome, Convention Center and hospitals.

Katrina lost considerable speed and changed direction in the last few hours that preceded the hurricane's arrival. Had the eye-wall of a Category 5 storm moved directly over the city of New Orleans, the worst-case scenario would have played out.

Given the destruction we see to major buildings from a storm of lesser intensity, it is in fact probable that, in a direct hit by a Cat. 5 hurricane, the entire roof of the Super Dome would have caved, and some of the hotels and hospitals blown down. Any person hanging onto a rooftop would never have been seen alive again.

The result would have been the 40,000 deaths that an emergency worker was estimating on CNN the day before.

So given that the death toll would certainly have been 30 or 40 times what it is likely to be, is it a possibility that the authorities held back from taking extreme preventative measures that could have saved the day as it has turned out to be, in order to avoid the worst-case scenario that could have been? This is a question that must be asked.

Was there a lesson, good or bad, taken from the loss of hundreds of emergency workers in the Twin Towers on 9/11 " rushing into buildings that were beyond hope?

Was that event four years ago in any way responsible for why, when the danger was known, there were insufficient preventative measures taken on Sunday in New Orleans " for fear of losing even more souls?

If so " and I do not know the answer " then I believe the Federal government has an obligation to pay far beyond what otherwise might be expected. I believe they should be paying fully for the reconstruction of the homes and the lives of the multiple tens of thousands of Americans it abandoned.

I say that because government has a responsibility to serve and protect. However, most of the people who were left stranded in the city were not protected. They had no means to get out, and they were abandoned.

I for one can understand their civil unrest. In a rich society, they had little. Today they have nothing. That is, nothing but seething anger for their country, and for authority.

On the other hand, it's possible that the authorities were overwhelmed and silenced by the condition of fright that sailors call ‘in extremis', which I described in my Sunday article. The purpose of my writing that anecdote, in fact, is that I wanted to forewarn others that there are times in life when even the most responsible of people find themselves powerless in the face of nature.

Nobody is perfect. I, for one, do not expect it.

In any event, the City of New Orleans is dead, and the pain and anger is being felt today.

Tomorrow there will be a wake. After that life will move on.

I know because I have gone through this real life experience several times this summer. It is a cycle like everything I describe in capital markets. Ecclesiates 3.

In fact, in preparing for New Orleans' funeral processions and wakes to follow, I awoke at 2am this morning, and started to think of the good times I've enjoyed in that city.

It's too early to start describing them because, after all, many of the people there have not yet been found, and many others are dieing every day. But, I have already started the process.

The final death toll, I expect, will exceed the 1,000 that I wrote about last Sunday. And the cost to recover will exceed the $50 billion number I also estimated at a time when numbers one-third as high were being mentioned.

But, for now, I want to leave readers with the knowledge that I too have images of the New Orleans Convention Center because I have spent fully two months of my life in that building " almost 15 years of conventions " building a personal equity based on contacts, knowledge and experience in capital markets, which enables me to write this blog for you.

In spite of the devastation I anticipated with Katrina, I never thought that I would see happening at the Convention Center I know so well, the utter chaos, personal suffering and anarchy shown to the world on last evening's news.

To trade or write effectively, I have to be in a rhythm. I'm afraid I don't have that today. I feel assaulted and out-of-sorts.

The scene that I now envision " that all of you are soon to see " is the traditional New Orleans jazz funeral procession and wake. I expect to see a lot of it in the weeks ahead.

I can't wait for that because it will mean we are all getting back into the swing of things, and starting to build the legacy of this tragedy, a rebirth of the American South, which is something quite positive to look forward to.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 2, 2005 09:59:28 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market