On May 18, I exited the Homebuilders way too early. They had another run until late July.

Still, I rang the cash register at the time, and made my point. That's all I can hope to do. I'm not T. Boone Pickens " i.e., perfect in all I do.

Mr Pickens" -- they call him now -- says he's five for five, and is impressed with himself. Hmmm. It must be nice to be perfect, and a Texas oilman to boot!

As for me, I was getting pretty concerned late in July that some readers might be getting caught up in the hype over the flaming hot real estate market, so on July 27 I wrote an article about Real estate bubble or not?" and then followed that one up the next day. Yes, that July 28.

In the second article, I basically said that some of the residential homebuilders are among the best managed companies in the world " like TOL, which is on the Cara Global Best 100 Companies list as you can see " and they are better investments than owning a home " if investing is your objective. But there is a point to exit, and that's when you see the market drivers pushing against your positions.

If I see a change in market conditions, I'll be back into TOL. It might be a while, but in the long-run, you can count on it.

Technical indicator believers will note the divergence between the RSI peaks and the share price peaks.

On another matter today, if you caught the Nasdaq virtual open on CNBC, you watched Cisco (NDQ: CSCO) head office staff in San Jose, dressed in brilliant red (I think ;-)), waving enthusiastically to the audience. Some open!!

The Company had just announced that profits had risen 12 pct for the quarter. Then the stock crapped out "7 pct through the day.

Cisco has had a tough year and a half, as the long-term chart shows. And sometimes all the yelling and screaming and stock promotion in the world doesn't help.

When it's time, it's time.

Ask the traders who have been long the homebuilders this month.