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August 3, 2005

The Ruble rules, Wed., August 3, 2005, 1:55 PM

Oh, how this rating upgrade by Fitch must put a frown on Kudlow's mug. It seems that, according to Fitch, the Ruble is now a full BBB credit, up from BBB-minus. The Russian bonds received a double rating upgrade too.

Why, you ask? I'll let Fitch speak for themselves. They are a little late mind you; I have been all over this story for the past year.


The rating action is underpinned by a massive improvement in the government's financial ratios," said Sharon Raj, a director in Fitch's sovereign group and the agency's lead analyst for Russia. "We estimate that the general government surplus is likely rise to around 6 pct of GDP this year, supported by high oil prices as well as back tax payments. Against a background of real rouble appreciation, GDP growth of 5.5 pct and external debt prepayments to the IMF and the Paris Club of more than 17 bln usd, this should result in a decline in government debt to 17 pct of GDP by end-year, far below the 'BBB' median of 36 pct, as well as the continued accumulation of assets in the Stabilisation Fund."


I continue to say that America should have it so good, and that Kudlow ought to stick to his knitting, which I gather is spinning stories for his employers at CNBC.

The Ruble has weakened in recent months as the USD got strong. But, that move appears to be over as the USD is going south, resuming its long-term vacation.

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Currently, the Ruble/USD pair is trading at about 28.47 Rubles to the Dollar. It had been under 27.5 in February.

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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 3, 2005 01:55:49 PM | Category: Forex , Russia