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August 23, 2005
Should you hold MRK? Part 2. Tues., August 23, 2005, 8:55 AM
The lawyer for the successful plaintiff against Merck (NYSE: MRK) in Texas has apparently said that the number of lawsuits that Merck will face will now increase from 4,200 to 50,000. That speaks to my statement in this Week in Review that lawyers across America would be working overtime on the weekend to manufacture similar personal wealth-creating cases, which I find a sad commentary on life.
Why not wait for a few weeks and months to discover what really happened in Texas before taking enormous amounts of time and money from unfortunate people who have suffered emotionally, if not also financially, from health issues?
But, isn't grabbing the iron while it's white hot the very proof of ambulance chasing these lawyers say they don't do?
Whether the number of separate legal claims against Merck is 5,000, 50,000 or 500,000 doesn't mean a whit to me. The share price does.
The on-air statement by the Texas plaintiff attorney that Merck management was murder for money" just said it all. In my books, the man has zero credibility. If it is true that Merck is Murder Inc, then this case is the beginning of the end for America, and I hardly think that's the case.
Let's look at the Merck stock charts as well as its financial data.

Merck through the 1980s and 1990s was on the Cara Global Best 100 Companies list. But after the 2000-2002 bear market, the stock never came back to match the performance of its peers. I happen to believe that if a stock under performs that of the peer group for a quarter year or longer there is probably serious matters ongoing in the boardroom, which means that long-term traders need to stand aside.

Late in the 2H04, I started to bottom pick MRK. Do you recall my November 7 recommendation and research on MRK for Trader Wizard (while it was$26.21). I hope you re-read it, as well as my Feb-18 follow up, and note the profit I made on that trade in addition to the fine things I had to say about management. I still feel the same about management.
But then the VIOXX fiasco hit. These things usually take on a life of its own. Merck is now in that realm.
Like AIG, MRK is a Dow 30 component that ought to be left to professional investors and speculators for a while.
I would not consider going long again until the Daily RSI 7 was a larger figure than RSI 21 (see Daily data chart above), and was indicating that the Weekly data was soon to go positive as well (see chart below). Traders might have a long wait.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 23, 2005 08:55:22 AM | Category: 35 Health Care , U.S. Dow 30
