« Week #31 (2005-08-06) in Review | Main | Pre-open market drivers, Mon., August 8, 2005, 6:45 AM »
August 8, 2005
Sector review (Aug 1-5), Mon., August 8, 2005, 6:36 AM
U.S. equities review by market sector, for the week ending August 5:
Sectors that are sensitive to forex and commodity-price cycles:
1. Energy: This week, XLE closed up +1.66 pct W/W, to 48.39, including a loss of "0.76 pct on Friday. Tuesday was a huge up day, but the remainder of the week, XLE was soft. So, I continue to see that XLE's Mo" is slowing, even though the price is trending higher.
2. Basic Materials: XLB was down "0.17 pct W/W, to 28.59. The 40-Week Moving Average (M40) is up to 29.01, so the price is falling below technical support. Without strong commodity prices this week, XLB would have been down more.
3. Industrials: XLI was the worst performing ETF on my list this week. Whenever there is talk of protectionism and trade war, traders head for the hills. XLI was down "1.67 pct W/W to 30.02.
Sectors that are sensitive to consumer purchasing and lifestyle decisions:
1. Consumer Discretionary: XLY was down "1.59 pct W/W, to 34.11, which was second most on the week. That's what happens when retailers don't meet Wall Street's lofty revenue forecasts for the quarter, which is a little hard to do when Americans no longer have ‘tickee for laundry'.
2. Consumer Staples: The big defensive sector was also down large. XLP fell "1.45 pct W/W to 23.14, which is now at the M40 (23.11). Rising energy costs, rising interest rates, rising consumer price inflation (ignoring government data but looking forward to the prospects of a lower USD) are going to take a toll on all consumer stocks.
3. Healthcare: IYH was down "0.65 pct W/W to 62.45. I suspect that once XLY, XLP and IYH all have RSI technical indicators that are pointing south on the Weekly data that the broad market will be noted by many as being in a bear phase.
Sectors that are sensitive to capital flows and interest rates:
1. Financial: XLF was down "0.97 pct W/W to close at 29.64, which is barely above the M40 (29.47). But the big news was Friday, when the bond market went off the rails. That's when XLF was down "1.13 pct.
2. Technology: This week the chip stocks took a big dip, down "1.23 pct W/W to 36.90, including a bad day Friday, down "0.75 pct. M40 is 33.37.
3. Telecom: IYZ was down "0.54 pct W/W to 24.04, not much above its M40 (23.47). There's going to be lots of bullish action here because mobility is what people want.
4. Utilities: XLU was down "1.12 pct W/W, to 31.91, but it was Friday's U.S. Jobs Report that was the killer here, causing XLU to drop "1.72 pct on the day due to a falling bond market.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 8, 2005 06:29:04 AM | Category: U.S. Equities
