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August 23, 2005
Real estate in trouble?, Tues., August 23, 2005, 5:48 PM
A month ago I wrote an article on the real estate industry. I called it: Realty top? Mon., July 18, 2005, 6:23 PM"
You can click on the charts I posted that day (and change the time frame from Bi-weekly to Daily) to see that two weeks later, most of them hit the wall.
But, let's review what I had to say that day:
But, for this group of realty stocks, maybe you can tell me where (and how) traders are going to make money say a year from today. You'll have to tell me because I must be blind. :-) I can't see it.
In fact, not being blind, I'll tell you what I do see: the long-term cycle has peaked. The game is over."
I thought the homebuilders would fall too, but not as fast. I was wrong there because right about the time I published that real estate article, they too crapped out, as this chart shows.
Homebuilding -USA

Today it was reported that re-sales of existing homes dipped from an annual rate of 7.35 million to 7.16 million, which is still impressive. The problem appears to be that the unsold inventory is now the highest since 1988.
Tomorrow we'll find out how new home sales went this past month. Should be interesting.
Traders have to be cautious in that the 10-year bond market has boomed in the past two weeks, taking yields down. It's when yields are rising that the real estate market feels the greatest pressure.
I suppose the reason that real estate is topping here is because it is over-built. So, along with interest rates, the housing inventory and repo's will be the keys to this market now.
That, and of course oil & gas prices because these houses have to be heated this winter, and the home-owners and renters need some change left at the fuel pumps after re-filling their autos. In the real world, the Rat Catcher must be paid.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 23, 2005 05:48:19 PM | Category: 40 Financials
Discourse
I'm buying more insulation for my house. I'll bet I'm not the only one. Opportunity? Johns Mansville?
Posted by: Fred at August 24, 2005 12:56 AM [link]
Bill-
Yes, I saw this report today too and thought back to your article. Great call! Will the herd run for the exits if tomorrow's report is negative as well? Should be interesting trying to get the elephant through the keyhole. Can you pump and dump a whole sector? ;)
Posted by: Mark at August 23, 2005 6:57 PM [link]