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August 9, 2005

Perspective on Canada, Tues., August 9, 2005, 11:26 AM

A reader from Canada (Tifosi) has asked if I would provide some personal insight as regards the Canadian market.


"Bill, We all recognise that the Bank of Canada is intent on raising rates and I think, like Jeff Rubin of CIBC, this is a big mistake as OIL will remain at high levels.
Further, as stated by Don Coxe of BMO this past weekend, there is a strong chance that the SEC will soon change its rules as regards booking reserves for oil sands projects. In the end, there will be strong upward pressure on the loonie and the CDN $ will move towards par, forcing the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates as our exporting economy in the East will be greatly affected, such that Canada will then get its equivalent Housing Bubble."


Compared to the U.S., I think the Canadian economy, stock market, and Loonie, are in good shape. Real good shape.

Last week, the benchmark EWC had another excellent week, up +1.55 pct W/W to 19.61, after going up +2.95 pct the prior two weeks. This week, EWC almost hit 20 (19.94!), and it hasn't been remotely close to that high-water mark since a brief period in mid-2000.


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The Canadian bond market has been rising for five straight years, and now the yields are significantly less than in the U.S., for comparable maturities. See the 5-year Canada's (TSX: XGV).

If needed, " to combat any inflation problem -- the Bank of Canada has leeway to move rates higher and faster than the U.S. Fed. In fact, Greenspan must be envious.


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But Canada has a very successful track record at fighting its debt because it doesn't have budget deficits, which again would make Greenspan envious. Then again, Canada spends very little, relatively, on the War Against Terror, and the country enjoys a strong resource-based economy, particularly in the energy industry of Western Canada.

The Canadian Loonie is on a tear as well, and, while that helps imports, and keeps inflation down, it hurts exports and tourism. I think the Loonie will get stronger, putting more pressure on Canada's exporters and destination resorts. It's even possible the Loonie could move to par.


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So, what's not to like about Canada these days.

The reader points to the words of CIBC's Jeff Rubin and BMO/Harris Bank's Donald Coxe, both of whom I regard highly. In fact, I happen to think that Don Coxe is one of the great capital market strategists of the past 25 years.

So, if Coxe is concerned about something, I'd pay heed.

But, generally, I think Canada is in good shape. The housing market is not bubbling over, as far as I can tell. Maybe that's because interest rates in Canada are not rising anywhere close to the U.S. experience. And mortgage debt and re-financings for cash to be spent elsewhere are not anywhere near the problem in Canada.

The Vancouver real estate market has been very hot for years now, but that's largely because of Chinese immigration, and the money they bring, and the rapid assimilation into the Canadian economy the Chinese families make.

Real estate is also flying in the Ft. McMurray area of Alberta, in the Oil Sands region, but that is to be expected because the capital investment there is phenomenal and will continue to be so for the next 15 years at least.

Montreal, or the Atlantic provinces, has never been a hot real estate market " at least not for 35 years when political separatism became an issue, and a possibility.

The Toronto real estate market is solid with young persons moving into relatively inexpensive condos. But the banks still require high down payments and the ability to service the mortgages with room to spare. So developers have resorted to give-aways in the form of kitchen appliances wherever the market cools down.

I see a few signs of the Toronto condo market slowing, but not collapsing. The relative value of Toronto real estate, based on lifestyle considerations, exceeds most other world-class cities. The fact is that people from the Asia Pacific region want to live in Toronto, where they are welcomed into the culture, and where they enjoy the personal safety and economic stability.

That's my take on it -- as I sit here within 100 feet of the north side of the Lake Ontario shoreline.

Now if the weather in the winter was a little kinder, I would never consider moving south. ;-)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 9, 2005 11:24:06 AM | Category: Canada

Discourse

I'm struck by the uncanny resemblance of the EWC monthly chart in this post (the first chart shown) with TASR's weekly chart in 2004. If the resemblance is more than coincidental then things may not be as well as they seem.

Posted by: jontait at August 10, 2005 12:47 AM [link]