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August 30, 2005

More about VoIP, Tues., August 30, 2005, 8:52 AM

Yesterday, I received a lot of mail related to VoIP after I published an article. Readers are clearly showing an interest. So, as grist for the mill I thought I'd re-publish one of the mails I got. It comes from a free/premium web service called High-Tech Bulletin, published by KCI Communications, Inc. While I don't personally have any involvement with HTB or KCI, I think the info in this particular article is timely and relevant, and you may wish to subscribe to HTB.


Going Wireless
August 29, 2005
By GS Early, editor of High-Tech Bulletin and executive editor at KCI Communications, Inc.

Last issue I had Jason Koepke hold forth on wireless Voice over Internet Protocol (wVoIP). In the meantime, I've been doing some digging about the w" part of wVoIP"--Bluetooth, Ultra Wideband (UWB), WiFi, WiMAX and now even xMax.

If you're looking for the place where things are popping, the wireless space is where it's at for the next five years. And companies are already profiting as this journey kicks off.

From a recent press release:

Worldwide wireless LAN [local area networks] switch ports jumped 52 percent to 170,000, and revenue grew 55 percent to $80.8 million between the first and second quarters of 2005 and is expected to top $735 million by 2008, according to Infonetics Research's quarterly report, Wireless LAN Equipment .

The overall WLAN equipment market is holding steady, with worldwide revenue dipping 1 percent to $733 million between 1Q05 and 2Q05, and unit shipments increasing 7 percent. Annual revenue is expected to increase to $4.1 billion in 2008 as WLANs continue to gain traction across all regions."

Worldwide revenue for WLANs, just a facet of the wireless world, is around $2.8 billion already.

This technology will completely change the face of telecommunications and the companies that are its beneficiaries. At this point, the most vulnerable industries will be the legacy phone companies.

While the Baby Bells--or what's left of them--have been relatively quick to jump on the VoIP bandwagon, these services are commoditized in a wireless world, and all that infrastructure maintenance, etc. will be a great burden to old telephony types.

Also, the cellular phone companies--some of the largest of which are subsidiaries of the big phone companies--will also lose serious market share during the coming years.

The Register (www.theregister.co.uk) recently published an article addressing this issue. Click here to read the article

In following issues, I'll discuss each of the wireless technologies more specifically. But I want to address the 800-pound gorilla first--WiFi.

This is the wireless Internet connection you get in Starbucks (NSDQ: SBUX; www.starbucks.com), airports and Paneras (NSDQ: PNRA; www.panerabread.com--even some cities now. Tempe, Ariz., is about to get hot"--that's figuratively, since it's already hot literally. Philadelphia is also looking at bids; San Francisco, South Lake, Tex., Malden, Mass., and Fullerton, Calif., are all connected. Check out www.muniwireless.com for more news on who's getting hot and who's not.

WiFi stands for Wireless Fidelity, a play on the HiFi or High Fidelity of bygone days when kids bought albums, not disks, and turntables were a necessity, not solely hip-hop DJ accoutrements.

Anyway, when you're out and about and spy a café or bookstore that says it's a hot spot," you've found an open wireless network where your computer, PDA or Web-capable phone connect, often times without fees. The immediate goal is to maintain an umbrella of connectivity that's as broad as possible.

On one level, a traveler in an airport might want to check his/her e-mails, look at current sales reports or do research on a potential client. On a broader level, municipalities can keep their employees connected to one another, so a child services worker visiting a house can send video or conduct interviews that the supervisor can see at the home office. And the supervisor can be sending the most current information on the family to the case worker as he/she sits with the family.

Instead of going through all the scenarios and advantages, just use your imagination to visualize your town--or your country--where you would have constant access to high-speed Internet. It's going to be revolutionary for the winners and the losers. And it will happen.

Already on the telephony side, Vonage (www.vonage.com) is looking to have about 1 million subscribers to its VoIP phone system by year end. It's also entering into strategic partnership with TowerStream (www.towerstream.com) to expand its commercial business on a wireless platform into major metropolitan areas already covered by TowerStream's fixed wireless. And the younger generation is signing up to Skype (www.skype.com) and Google's (NSDQ: GOOG; www.google.com) VoIP service by the tens of millions.

For now, the public companies that are seeing the most from the current WiFi movement are the switching companies: Cisco Systems (NSDQ: CSCO, www.cisco.com), D-Link (Taiwan: 2332.TW, www.dlink.com) and NETGEAR (NSDQ: NTGR, www.netgear.com). There are also a number of smaller private companies that are heating up cities all over the country.

Hopefully next week, Azul Star Networks (www.azulstar.com) founder and CEO Tyler van Houwelingen will give you his view on what we can expect to see as our world becomes increasingly wireless. Azul Star Networks is a company that built two of the first wireless cities in the country."


I have a list of maybe 100 small private companies involved primarily in VoIP, which I will publish if and when I find it. Like Vonage and Skype, some of these companies will eventually go public.

Stay tuned.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 30, 2005 08:52:56 AM | Category: 50 Telecom Services , Special Situation Equities

Discourse

Bill,

In anticipation of what will surely be a mountain of hype regarding the upcoming Vonage IPO filing, I think its worthwhile reviewing the VoIP companies that area already public. Surprisingly, some are reasonably valued.

One segment provides VoIP equipment to incumbent cable providers. This is a huge growth segment in my opinion, but the premier company has already had a nice run. Keep Arris Corp. (ARRS) on your VoIP watchlist. They provide not only the VoIP modem/gateway products for Comcast and others but also (together with APC) a battery backup system that allows Comcast phone to operate independent of temporary power losses. This is obviously important in emergency situations, and will become more of a benefit when e911 programs are rolled out.

The second segment provides VoIP equipment to businesses. Until I retired to trading, I worked for many years at a national law firm in the US. The amount the firm paid for long distance calling and WAN service was incredible. This equipment, once installed, will save companies a great deal of money and should therefore have a bright future. Here I like Vodavi Technology (VTEK). Vodavi equipment can integrate VoIP and PBX systems, as well as provde unified messaging for businesses. Vodavi is profitable, has a great balance sheet, and has pulled back on what appears to be only a temporary inventory issue.

The third segment is the VoIP service providers, like Vonage. In this segment I like CallWave (CALL). Like Vodavi, it is profitable and has a great balance sheet. It also owns some intellectual property regarding the integration of VoIP and wireless. As a bonus, it should see a nice boost from any Vonage hype.

For full disclosure I have owned ARRS in the past (no position now except that I am long one Arris phone equipment system via Comcast), and now own small positions in CALL and VTEK.

Posted by: josh [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 30, 2005 9:30 AM [link]

Bill,

I am not the tech guru so everyone's perspective is appreciated. We all recognise that there is a new wave of wireless applications coming but is Wifi the way to go or is it Wi-Max.

Alvarion is a publicly listed company that is the leader in WiMax and we have already seen Intel take steps towards WiMax deployment.

So, looking at this from 50,000 feet, will it be WiFi or WiMax.

Posted by: Tifosi at August 30, 2005 10:05 AM [link]

Well i gave skype a try...and I love it!!!
This will definately be a huge thing...any comment on the EBAY buyout? best regards /sergio

Posted by: sergio [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 13, 2005 9:40 AM [link]