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August 24, 2005
Katrina, where are you?, Wed., August 24, 2005, 11:15 AM
The 11:00am ET report from the National Hurricane Center regarding the storm called Katrina, shows that there is a minimal 12 pct probability of the storm reaching to within 65 miles to the EAST of Key West through Saturday, and we know the winds are strongest to the northeast of that by some 60-80 miles.

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS... 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR.
So, tell me, please, how this monster" 35 kt weather system shut down oil & gas production in the Gulf of Mexico?
We're talking about a system that is presently over Nassau Bahamas where the winds at ground level are not even affecting the local boating activities.
When does the B.S. stop?
Shame on any financial reporter in the mass media for parroting the party line.
The B.S., by the way, started in the early morning hours in Singapore, out of the AP offices. It was a story that somebody paid to be manufactured for the consumption of those traders who suffer from credulity syndrome, i.e., they read and believe the "news".
This incident is another example why, for many years, I have said that the capital market is a game that plays people.
If you don't understand for whom the mass media works (clue number 1, 2, and 3: it's not you), then don't play the game. You'll get ill every time you drink their lemonade.
BTW, for those who are interested in facts, Katrina is presently just north of Nassau, with max winds over Abacos that are insignificant. The "storm" is now 1150 miles east of Houston TX, moving NW. There is practically zero pct probability of getting anywhere near Houston. Jacksonville FL maybe, but don't cancel your tennis game.
For those who care.

Katrina 2:00pm ET update: So now I'm receiving private meterologist reports. Why?
Why do people make life more difficult than it is?
According to the lat-long co-ordinates, the "storm" has just passed by Nassau Bahamas on a North-Northeast direction. I checked the weather there, which is a simple procedure I'm sure all of you do, and the wind is all of 12 mph.
Except for a little rain, it's just another day in paradise.
And there are no oil & gas wells there! :-)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 24, 2005 11:17:02 AM | Category: 10 Energy
Discourse
Remember the East Coast "Storm of the Century" nonsense when the media couldn't come down off their Bush v Gore high at the end of January 2001? These people are pathetic.
Posted by: Mark at August 24, 2005 1:30 PM [link]
Even independent Value Line was parroting the storm story for yesterday. (www.valueline.com/news/marketnews)
Posted by: Mark at August 25, 2005 6:14 AM [link]
At 6:00am ET Thurs Aug-25, Katrina Petrina is over Freeport Bahamas, where the max sustained winds are now registering 39 mph. Freeport btw is about 10 miles north of the center of the storm, so the counterclocking winds are at max strength over Freeport right now.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78062.html
There are places on the west coast of U.S. and Canada that get those kinds of winds weekly.
This just goes to show that promoters can make mountains out of molehills.
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at August 25, 2005 6:43 AM [link]

Bill,
I had the exact same thought as I saw Oct nat gas at over $10/Mcf this morning. For all of the hype about the storm season, it has been pretty mild so far. Cnbc really ruins whatever shred of credibility it had by talking about Katrina as if it will surely turn into this year's hurricane Ivan. My guess is that idea was planted by a trader who needs to unwind some long positions on the nymex.
Posted by: josh
at
August 24, 2005 12:14 PM [link]