This afternoon I received a letter that I'm sure is also on the minds of so many of my readers. Although I write often about matters like day trading, and regulatory concerns, and so forth, I believe that most readers want to see me write about long-term investment programs more than any other.

Here is the letter " minus some personal info.

Bill-I am glad I found your site. You have a very interesting blog. I have been looking for some time for a voice out there that recognizes fundamental analysis can be combined with technical measures to produce an integrated system.

I have a question for you. Is it possible to use ETFs and by timing switches from categories and sectors produce wealth-producing returns, ie 15-20% annually? I do not have huge amounts of time to invest on research, am relatively bright, will listen to logic, and don't like to trade in and out all week. Am I trying to work the tool (ETFs) too hard? Will I need a shorting strategy in order to produce those kinds of returns as well? Is that kind of return too hard in what looks like a sideways or slightly downward trending market? Any thoughts you may have would be appreciated. /Mark"

And here is my answer:

Hi Mark, Thanks for reading. Pls tell your friends and colleagues.

Your question is one that is, or ought to be, relevant to maybe 75 pct of my readers, and one that in future I'm going to demonstrate can work. I just need to complete two other systems I have under development.

Eventually, using a universe of maybe 50 liquid ETFs and HOLDRS, I am going to publish a simple portfolio. I am not going to short sell or buy puts, but just keep it simple by only buying and selling. I am not going to over-trade, and when I do trade, I am going to give my reasons -- fundamental, quantitative, and technical.

And at the end of the average year, I am going to expect minimum 15 pct returns. And some years, the returns will likely be much higher than that. So I would be hoping to average 18 pct returns over the long run, or say double what one should expect from a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds.

And I feel this return could be earned by spending, at most, no more than two hours a week doing the homework.

If I should succeed, nothing would make me happier. Cordially, /Bill"