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August 19, 2005

Energy packed day, Fri., August 19, 2005, 1:30 PM

About 2:00pm ET yesterday, the energy sector (GICS 10) started moving higher, and that move powered up the broad market indexes in the U.S. About 10:30am ET this morning, the energy group " already up from +1 pct to over +2 pct on the day " started to run out of steam, and so did the U.S. equity market.

This comparison chart using the Dow 30 as the baseline index, along with XLE (energy) -- at the top -- and XLB (Basic Materials), XLI (Industrials), XLY (Consumer Discretionary) and XLF (Financial) " all below the Dow 30 (in black) " show that situation clearly.


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I suppose the question traders have to ask is, how long can higher crude oil contracts based largely on random geopolitical events carry the rest of the equity market. Higher oil & gas prices are costs to most corporations and individuals, and at such high cost levels the pain is evident.

I believe the equity market will continue to soften as it has for the past month. Due to rising energy costs, next quarter's earnings growth is likely to slow, and the number of reporting corporations guiding lower will rise. That's not good for equities.

The retailers obviously are getting hurt, but so too are corporations in other industries that don't have pricing power. With an inability to pass along increasing costs to their customers, their operating margins get squeezed, which sooner or later comes out in the wash.


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So, watching CPI and PPI trends is a trader's tool I recommend using.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 19, 2005 01:30:12 PM | Category: 10 Energy , Cara Today in the Market , Trader Tools , U.S. Equities