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August 19, 2005
Conspiracy re MRK?, Fri., August 19, 2005, 3:46 PM
I received the following letter, and it made me think that possibly too many readers believe I am a total skeptic. The truth is that I try to be a realist, where I see the glass half full AND half empty. It takes that kind of balanced approach to trading to become a better trader.
Bill, Is it not strange that the previous FDA decision to withhold VIOXX was on a Friday Options expiration in the early afternoon AND today's decision from the courts on the 250M reward is the same timing!? /J"
Here's my reply:
J: You may have a point, but also I think that courts try to clean up as many open matters as possible at the end of every week, and I know that most juries want to get things over with too, and come Friday morning, their deliberations get more focused. When I was younger, I served on about five or six jury trials, which taught me a lot about life, however I know that I personally wanted to get back to work on Monday. But, maybe lawyers have a different take on this? /Bill"
One other opinion I hold, and I can say this having held a multiple entry E-2 visa to the U.S., for the years I owned 100 pct of a company that employed 40 full-time persons there. I think too many Americans think they can create wealth in a courtroom.
Just like too many bank directors incorrectly think they are creating wealth on their proprietary trading desks, trading against their customers.
They can't.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 19, 2005 03:46:41 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
But Mike, if bullion has a "sinusoidal pattern" that indicates the low 420's, why were you telling us you were in buying goldminer stocks early this week -- particularly after I warned against it for a couple weeks?
I think gold is in an uptrend. Like many who are in the gold industry I believe that gold will trade in the 475 to 525 range within a year, which to a goldminer is like $60+ crude oil to an O&G company. It translates to solid cash flow, and earnings growth. So, when share prices come off a bit, you buy them on weakness. It's not rocket science.
Cordially, /Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at August 19, 2005 4:25 PM [link]
I agree I should have waited a bit (patience is a lesson the market is teaching me at a co$t), I guess I am stumped on why you picked 440 when just by eyeballing the cyclical nature of gold, it looks like it could go back down into the 20's before it goes back up.
I did notice yesterday that though Gold was down .5% that the goldminers were generally up. I own some RGLD and it was up 6% on strong earnings.
Posted by: mike_wilmot at August 20, 2005 9:14 AM [link]
Bill, I respect your opinion but lets face some reality proprietary trading desks don't make their money off mom and pop. Plain and simple mom and pop don't control ( by them selves ) enough capital to keep all the desks in business.
Two other quick notes. 1) The courts don't care what day in the options cycle it is. 2) In regards to one of the other posts from a reader. Individuals and even most prop desks don't have the ability to distinguish an order which is part of a basket trade from any other order. Also basket trades are part of either program trading or sophisticated hedges to other derivative products, or lastly for arbitrage.
Posted by: hyman at August 20, 2005 2:05 PM [link]
Bill,
You would be amazed at the number of jury verdicts that come out on friday afternoon or evening. Jurors simply want to get on with their lives. They are paid roughly $40/day depending on the jurisdiction, and are asked to do very important work under what is often difficult circumstances. When faced with the prospect of another week or more of deliberations, or possibly even a weekend session, it is simply human nature to find a common ground. I am almost certain that is what happened here. In fact, I would wager 2:1 that not a single juror knew that friday was options expiration.
Posted by: josh
at
August 20, 2005 3:15 PM [link]
Hyman,
Respectfully, since I know you are a senior person in the securities industry, it is precisely my contention that sell-side prop desks do make money off "Mom & Pop", and they make it off your Fund as well, and anybody else's order flow they manage. They do so as part of their strategy. And every time there is a quote query, or a limit order, put through their system, they manage that info to their benefit. Moreover, they monitor the trading decisions of their most successful clients.
If you want to challenge me on this, I'll agree to take the matter further if you disclose your identity, because it's not so easy making statements like I do in the light of the day, without the benefit of anonymity.
And to correct any possible misimpression, I never said that sell-side prop desks make ALL their money off Mom & Pop.
As to buy-side prop desks, like I presume you have, you happen to be in the same position of being screwed over like Mom & Pop. IMHO.
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at August 20, 2005 6:04 PM [link]

Bill-
You mentioned gold holding around $440, but based on its sinusoidal pattern:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$GOLD
it seems more likely to wind its way to the low $420's, before popping back up... based on history. What am I missing here?
Thanks-
MJW
Posted by: Mike Wilmot at August 19, 2005 4:11 PM [link]