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August 5, 2005

Awaiting the July Jobs Report, Part 2, Thur., August 4, 2005, 8:00 AM

At 8:30am EDT today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Jobs Report. It's an important report because the data gives traders a perspective on various drivers of capital market trends and cycles.

Remember, the devil is always in the details, plus of course the considerable PR spin put out for this report, usually based on the headline numbers.

Traders ought not to ponder the hype, at least not for too long, because the big money usually shows its face about 90 minutes after the report is released. Today, it could go either way -- for whatever reason the Gnomes decide is important to them.

So, I'll be watching money flow in the stock and bond markets, as well as reading through the report details.

Economists forecast the Jobs Report will fall within a range of 100,000 to 210,000 net new jobs for non-farm payrolls in July. The consensus estimate is 175,000, which is the number widely stated as one needed to sustain solid economic growth in the U.S..

I think there are many estimates, however, that fall in the 200,000+ range for this report. A number that is well above the upper range of forecasts, or below it, would be a sign the economy is too hot or too cold as the case may be.

An overly heated economy scares investors who would then believe that next Tuesday, the Fed will be more hawkish on policies that will slow the economy, which is a depressant for equity prices.

The unemployment rate forecast ranges from 4.9 to 5.1 percent, with consensus being 5.0 percent. The lower the number, the greater will be fears of wage inflation on the way, which would be a depressant for both stock and bond prices.

Prior to the release of important economic reports, I turn to Econoday (see link), a high quality service that provides this data and the following charts to websites at Nasdaq, Bloomberg, Barron's and others.



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Next week's economic calendar from Econoday shows that Tuesday (FOMC Decision on the Fed Rate), plus Friday (U.S. International Trade Report), are the only big news days.


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After the U.S. Jobs Report is released, I try to review the actual report for a line-item understanding of where the changes lie. What I look for in particular is whether the job growth is full-time or part-time, and in the most important economic sectors like manufacturing or others like health and education.

What I usually see in the details, however, is a wide discrepancy from the headline data and talking head commentary. In any event, the interpretation of this report by the major capital pools, and their resulting decisions to allocate capital in the market is all important, and the rest is just grist for the mill.

In fact, the whole Jobs Report, like the CPI Report, and many others, involve statistical methods that could provide such a wide range of results as to render these reports of dubious value at best.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 5, 2005 08:00:17 AM | Category: Economics