The Dow Jones Industrials Average reversed short-term trend this morning with a weak opening. I believe the weakness will persist.

The Dow 30 would have to drop below 10,400 to violate the bull market's long-term trendline that started in April 2003, which was the first higher cycle low following the 4Q02 bear market bottom.

I believe that the probabilities of starting a new bear at this point are at least 50:50. This is a time to be cautious.

The key, I believe, will be interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes, presently yielding 4.18 pct, may move into higher levels, which would cause further damage to the bond market, which would extend into the real estate market, and then into the equity market.

If you read my Week #28 in Review, you will see that I am not surprised by this weakness in stocks.