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July 29, 2005

How to read the market, Part 1, Fri., July 29, 2005, 11:34 AM

Whenever the Dow 30 index has a micro (very short-term) reversal of 25 to 50 points or more immediately following the release of a key economic report, I take a hard-copy snapshot of my Dow 30 trading monitor. Then I think through the market response to how I think traders ought to respond to the key drivers of such a report.

For example, today, the Dow went down "25 points after the Commerce Dept 2Q05 report on the GDP. Because it was a weaker than expected report, I anticipated that bonds would sell down, gold improve, and that selected equities like the financials (JPM, C, AXP and to an extent GE because GE Capital produces about half GE profits) would be down relatively more than the Dow 30 index of which they represent the financial industry components.

That reaction, by the way, is a short-term one that is not based on the economic data, but on traders reactions as to how they think the U.S. Fed will react to it. You see, like driving quickly down a crowded highway, you can't focus on the car immediately ahead, but on the ones ahead of that. You are always trying to anticipate.

This is for the short-term traders. Ultimately, it is the big money of the long-term traders that moves capital markets, which requires different tools to assess.

Here is the graphic of the Dow 30 trading monitor.


187a003.jpg


You can see that JPM, C, AXP, and GE are down. So too is AIG, but with the internal and regulatory situation ongoing there, I stay away from trying to figure out that one.

Gold is also up.

So the universe is unfolding as it should. At least for now.

My point here is that after months and years of applying this simple tool, you too will start to see the interrelationships in capital markets at work. These markets do not operate randomly, but as people (like me and you) direct them through our trading orders.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 29, 2005 11:34:59 AM | Category: Trader Tools , U.S. Dow 30

Discourse

Hi Bill,

I enjoy reading your blog, most of it is way beyond my knowledge set...but i am learning.

What do you use or where do you set up your monitor screens?

Mark Gademsky CPC

Posted by: gademsky [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2005 12:06 PM [link]