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July 27, 2005

Chips still dip, Wed., July 27, 2005, 11:10 AM

You recall what I had to say about the semiconductor stocks on Saturday in my Week #29 in Review. Let's review:


"After a spectacular +4.08 pct rise the previous week, this week the semiconductor index (SMH) was up just +0.65 pct W/W, to 37.22, which was not bad considering the -5.5 pct beating INTC took this week.

However, on Friday, the gain in SMH was +0.30 pct, so the rest of the week was not as strong as it might appear.

And the other tech groups are not doing as well as the chip stocks, which themselves are topping out after being quite over-extended on the upside.

Exporters should do well here, but tech companies that import from Pacific Asia will experience higher costs in the months ahead.

Is there still a reason for U.S. Senators to be talking 27 pct tariffs on Chinese goods?

Well, I'm just waiting for some of those people in Washington to begin complaining that the currency revaluation in China that started this week is much too small, and too slow, and yada, yada. You haven't heard the end of this issue by a long shot, and it's going to get worse when the U.S. stock market starts to drop.

What traders have to be concerned about is more talk of U.S. protectionism, and trade war. Of course, politicians will say that these two concepts are mutually exclusive, but of course they are not.


Here's a look at the leading chip stocks. They have had a heck of a two-week run.
"


So SMH is trading today at about 37, which is down about "0.6 pct after two days and 90 minutes.

Let's have a look at the industry group.

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

Semiconductor- Memory Chips

Semiconductors -ex-USA

Semiconductors -Largecap USA

Semiconductors -Midcap USA


189a008.jpg


You will see quite a drop in the last few minutes for many of these stocks, particularly ADI, LLTC, and MXIM, which are well-managed companies. This is a warning.

After Intel (NDQ: INTC) hits the skids, the summer rally in this group will be history.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 27, 2005 11:10:35 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology