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July 21, 2005

Ballard powerless, Thurs., July 21, 2005, 5:54 PM

Yesterday I was asked by a reader what I think about Ballard Power (NDQ: BLDP) (TSX: BLD). It was not a good time to be contacting me, and I may have insulted the reader by replying, "Why ask me?"

Then I thought that maybe this person hasn't been a reader long, and doesn't know that responding to queries like that is not my game. Try Cramer. Anyway, he wrote back, and asked again:

"Bill, what are your thoughts about Ballard Energy Systems. They seem to be doing a lot of R&D on the use of hydrogen as an alternative to oil and gas?"

So, here goes.

Ballard Power is a company headquartered in Burnaby, a suburb of Vancouver Canada.

Speaking for Canadians, I can say that, as a Canadian technology company, even Nortel ranks somewhere between Research In Motion and Ballard, and Ballard is so far out that it's almost off the page.

You might even call it Ballard Powerless, or even Research In Motionlessness.

One look at a stock chart tells you all you need to know.


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I lived and worked in Vancouver in 2000 " even took my daughter to meet the Simon Fraser University registrar, atop Burnaby Mountain, in hopes she would enrol there. (She decided instead to go to University of Toronto, where she graduated.)

While in Vancouver, at the height of the Internet Bubblemania, I decided to telephone an information officer at Ballard to check into their products. You might say I was wondering about global revenues and not Burnaby research.

The answer I got at the time from this $18 billion market cap company was " or should have been " an embarrassment. When asking about revenue prospects, the abstract response was so far out on the moon, or up the mountain, that I ought to have known better.

Had I shorted Ballard Powerless then, at $150.00, it would look terrific in my portfolio today at $5.00. That's what happens when traders apply common sense to some of the most ridiculous stories floated by stock promoters. They win, and the promoter loses.

I can only imagine how much government (excuse me, taxpayer) money in Canada has gone into this deal.

Have a look at the financial analysis. Can anybody give me a reason to invest in this dog?

The company was organized in the 1980's, and total revenues this year (2005) are just $51 million, not a dime of which are in Canada. Think about that. Five years ago, the market cap was $18 billion.

This year the company will spend more in research " yet again " than they receive in revenues. There is a significantly negative cash flow.

There is a Return On Capital Invested (ROCI) of about MINUS -30 percent per year!

So give your head a shake if you think this company is going anywhere but bankrupt.

Yes, I suppose hydrogen plus battery-powered electric vehicles is an interesting story " the first time you hear it.

But if you're looking for something explosive out of this company, I'm thinking that, in this age of terror, maybe a bullet through the battery pack is the only way it's going to happen.

Sorry, Al, but that's how I feel.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 21, 2005 05:54:45 PM | Category: 20 Industrials