I look forward to being able to get back to trading -- and writing more cogently. The rambling at the start of last week's Week in Review shows how distracted I have become.

My focus in recent blogs on my attempt to systematize my research and blog production protocols is an admission that I have become unproductive. As I begin this report, I wonder whether I can do it in the five hours it once took " or, more likely in the eight hours that I have been averaging in recent weeks.

Goodness knows; the quality has not been improving.

But, then again, maybe I'll get a phone call, and won't be able to finish it at all.

Bill's Portfolio:

I have been of the long-term view that the broad equity market in the U.S. is in a bull trend, which is easier to repeat during bullish phases in the market, as was the case this week. So nothing has changed my outlook there.

But, I have also been of the opinion that the intermediate term cyclic phase, which started down on the first day of the year, would start to accelerate on the downside, as the short-term trend got in sync. That's where I may be wrong.

While we don't ‘buy the market' "- unless we are trading the MMI (Major Market Indexes) like the S&P500 (SPY) or Nasdaq (QQQ) (on their own and not part of a hedging strategy) " it is very important to be on the right side of the general market trend.

If the market is headed up, we can let our profits run longer. On the other hand, if the general trend is down and we are long certain stocks, we need to focus on our need to cut short our losses.

The strategic approach to my portfolio is a rather simple one: when the broad market is in a topping phase, which is indicated by an RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70 for the MMI, I begin to write call options against stocks that also have an RSI above 70. If these stocks continue to run on the upside through the strike price, I allow the stock to be called away from me.

But when the majority of the stocks in my portfolio have an RSI above 70 " sometimes 80 and occasionally above 90 " and then the RSI starts to fall, my strategy changes from call option writing to just plain selling the long position.

These are my distribution tactics. They usually occur in times when people are calling me contrarian.

I tend not to buy put options on individual stocks unless the RSI on the MMI has recently been above 70 and is now falling below it, and the same condition exists for the stocks for which puts might be considered.

Whenever I am buying puts, I have already finished distributing portfolio positions, and am now actively bearish. I am not outright bearish unless the general market has become so, so at that point I am no longer contrarian.

Now after a general bearish phase in markets has occurred, taking the RSI to under 30, I will start to look at accumulation tactics, where I once again become contrarian.

I start to look for industry groups where all or most of the component stocks are bearish " with an RSI under 30 but heading back up. The longer the period of elapsed time between the previous cycle top and the current cycle bottoming process, the more interested I become.

The accumulation and then the outright buying tactics are pretty much the opposite of the distribution/selling process.

At the cycle tops and bottoms, I look for evidence of involvement in capital markets by external influences "- mostly the actions of an influential media, and occasionally the news itself " to push me into selling or buying.

For example on May 16, Jim Cramer "screamed" at his CNBC audience of a couple hundred thousand active traders that he was having nothing more to do with the oils. I had been ready to buy the oils, but that was my signal to call the turn.

Similarly, on June 10, Phil Lebeau and others on CNBC spent the early morning hyping GM (as an aside, tell me Phil what time is it in Chicago at 7am edt, and what caused you to start reporting at that hour that GM and the UAW were coming to a mutual decision to re-open labor contracts?). I could sense it was a campaign that would go at least through the day, or until GM or UAW spokespersons denied the immediacy of the ‘story'.

So I waited until the wave of buying came in, and then sold into strength at about 11am, when GM hit $35. The fact it could have gone higher, or did go higher, was of no concern to me. I didn't make a decision on the basis of what might happen after I made a decision. The decision was made on the basis of analysis and proven portfolio management tactics.

The fact is that if GM were to go to $40, I would have been happy for GM workers, management, the UAW, and the U.S. economy, but it would have had zero impact on my portfolio.

You see, every trading decision I make is in the context of my portfolio P&L. That's Profit and Loss.

My portfolio is a business, and my job as manager is to make decisions that effectively grow it at a rate of return of 30 pct or more annually " at the worst of times.

If your business happens to be manufacturing nuts and bolts or grooming dogs, do you really care about how the weather this season might affect the Maine lobster market? But when the media reports on these matters, I'm like you; I take note for interest sake, and the possibility I might be taking a summer vacation that way.

But these media items have nothing to do with my business, until of course they start reporting or speculating on my General Motors.

You see when I buy GM at just under $28 and a couple weeks later a trader (Kerkorian or whomever) comes along and bids $31, then my still open P&L is up over 10 pct. Annualized, that's over 100 pct, which fits into my objective of earning a minimum of 30 pct annually " if my decisions keep working out that way.

But an unexpected bid like Kerkorian's usually leads to other speculation and perhaps higher bids. So I wait to see the fall-out. GM then goes to about $33, which takes my unrealized gain to over 20 pct for about one month.

Now you recall I got into GM and Maytag (MYG) when I started writing about Willy and the Pied Piper and the need to pay the Ratcatcher. That was six weeks ago. Seems like a lifetime.

All I was saying is don't follow the crowd; neither you (nor your children) will like the ending of that story.

I recall the infamous Mr Cramer even "screaming" on his popular TV show, "What has GM ever done for this country?" and I reported that in this blog " as a marker for future events I knew would come down the road " or the Street, or the path of the Pied Piper. So I bought GM when everybody was selling.

You see, what goes around, comes around.

So at $33 a week or more ago, I'm ready to sell my GM, but I'm looking for the usual take-out in the form of "news" or more likely a story (founded or unfounded) in the influential media. Then I am travelling on June 10 but awake to the drumbeat of CNBC, as Phil Lebeau is on the warpath.

I wrote it up at the time. "Sold to you at $35!

Thank you Cramer, thank you Lebeau, thank you all the boys and girls at CNBC for all your help. Thirty-point-eight percent realized gain in GM, in exactly six weeks (29 trading sessions). That's 267 pct annualized.

Ka-ching. Ring the bell. Money in the bank. Again.

Do you think I care now whether the GM stock price goes to $37 or $33? Not a whit.

That's because it's not in my portfolio.

So when this Friday I get a call from somebody saying that Lebeau is up to his old tricks by referring to J.D. Power data that GM has increased market share to 30 pct, I can only laugh.

You see, it would be impossible for GM to increase market share from less than 25 pct to over 30 pct in a year, nevertheless a month, regardless of what any so-called journalist reports. So when you hear reports like this, just put it down as somebody's selling.

A week ago I bought Placer Dome (NYSE: PDG) at $13.90. This is a major gold producer. Last week I told you my minimum expectation was for a gain in PDG of +10 pct in 18 trading sessions or less. PDG exceeded that target during the 4th trading session.

One of my readers wrote to say he enjoys watching me crow about these things. I have to admit I do. Maybe that's not right because I'm often wrong too.

I was wrong this week about market direction. Maybe next week, I'll get it right.

What I'm trying to say in the portfolio section is that (i) you have to make decisions based on protocols, (ii) you have to have the discipline to stick to them, (iii) you have to always be thinking in terms of percentage gains or losses in your P&L, and (iv) you don't realize a gain until you close the trade. This is a business; the rest is entertainment.

Part of my entertainment happens to be pointing out to you how to trade, and then watching real life unfold as I indicated it would, as in the case of GM.

Sooner or later all of you will get what this game is about, and you'll then be able to play it, rather than have it play you.

---

Sector ETF:

This week there were just two of my closely monitored ten ETFs that were down, and eight up. The previous week it was a case of 7 up and three down.

Last week I wrote: "XLE was strong, and may continue so." Wasn't that an understatement? XOM was up +4.30 pct W/W, so that helped!

Last week, I also wrote: "The rest (of these ETFs) are in trouble. Let me show you why I think that." I was wrong seven out of nine times.

Still, I remain bearish for the broad market, but, mostly because of the bullishness I see in foreign markets, I think the present rally in North American equities could have a couple weeks further to go before finally topping out.

Here are the ETF charts for sectors 10 (energy: IYE), 15 (basic materials: IYM), 20 (industrial: IYJ), 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY), 30 (consumer staples: XLP), 35 (healthcare: IYH), 40 (financial: IYG), 45 (technology: IGM, IGV and IGW), 50 (telecom: IYZ) and 55 (utilities: IDU).

10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, and IXC)

XLE closed Week #24 at 45.84, which is up +5.02 pct. Yes; it was up +2.39 pct on the prior week, after being up +1.50 pct the week before that, plus up +5.93 pct the previous week, and +2.16 pct the one before that. What a string of wins!

That's now about 20 pct in six weeks. The price of Crude Oil is setting new record highs. At $58 oil for any extended period, the stocks in this sector can continue to rally.

Oil analysts continue to be surprised, because the fundamentals do not seem to be supporting the record high prices. I'm starting to think that possibly traders are becoming more than a little concerned about the impact Al Qaeda is having in recent weeks.

Here's the XLE Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Daily data:

15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, and VAW)

The Basic Material ETF XLB closed up strongly +2.38 pct to 28.80, but was down -0.45 pct on Friday.

Last week I wrote: "I think there is a little more upside to XLB, but mostly because of the golds, and I'd prefer to play the XGD ETF on the Toronto Exchange. Last week I wrote, "Again, I say that I think the Gold Bear is coming out of hibernation., and what a week the golds had.

Well, the golds had another great week, as did the aluminum producers, and base metal miners of copper, pushing this Basic Materials sector up.

In spite of a bad Thursday afternoon and Friday, the Basic Materials ETF is back up to its 40-Week Moving Average of 28.83. AA (up +4.24 pct) helped.

But the Sector RSI is falling, so traders had better watch this.

This sector (other than gold) makes me a little nervous because so much of the demand has to do with China, and China could turn off the purchase orders very quickly.

Here's the XLB Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Daily data:

20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials ETF (XLI) was up +0.70 pct to 30.36, which is holding above the M40 (29.94). HON (up +4.73 pct) helped.

Last week I wrote: "Traders in this Industrials sector, just like the Basic Materials, have to be closely watching the USD action in the next month. This coming week, I believe that the over-bought USD will come off, which could help these two sectors for a couple weeks anyway."

Well, the USD finally started to come off on Friday in a big way. It will pay to focus on the overnight forex markets Sunday night, to get ready to take action on Monday.

Did you note that on Friday, as the USD was getting hamered, the XLI was up +0.56 pct. The earlier four days, XLI was up just +0.11.

Maybe Boeing supporters were commiserating the Paris International Air Show, where once again EADS/Airbus were productively eating the Boeing lunch.

Here's the XLI Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Daily data:

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY and VCR)

Consumer Discretionary Spending stocks (XLY) were up strongly +1.69 pct to 33.69, which is just above the M40 (33.14), but getting pricey. A lot of very large flat-screen TVs being sold these days are not enough to convince me that the U.S. consumer is flush however.

What I am convinced of is that America is splitting between the haves and the have-nots at a pace not seen before. I think this change will likely continue until (i) house prices level off and/or start to fall, or (ii) mortgage debt does the same.

In previous business cycles, the wealth effect was largely caused by bull rallies in equity markets. The housing market is typically a slow and steady climber. Now, the real estate market is the driver. And it is at the high end where the biggest impact is being experienced.

When you make it big in the real-estate market, there is some physical evidence for all to see, and you become a target. At least with making it big in the capital markets, there's only some electronic debits and credits, which are easy to hide from the have-nots.

I note that the high-end retail stores seem to be doing well, whereas the Wal-Marts are not.

Here's the XLY Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Daily data:

30 (consumer staples: XLP and VDC)

Consumer Staples (XLP) was down -0.21 pct W/W to 23.30, all of which was experienced on Friday.

XLP, for all the TH hype about being the place to be in a nervous market, has been sideways tracking for over a month. The current price sits just above the M40 (22.86).

Here's the XLP Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLP Hourly data:

XLP Daily data:

35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

IYH had a huge week, up +2.08 pct to 62.42. It could go higher, but I think this is a dead-cat bounce, aided by an acquisition by Pfizer. PFE, up +3.97 pct W/W, helped a lot.

What's going to push IYH next week? It is extended on the upside, having grown from 52 in Oct-04.

Here's the IYH Hourly and Daily data charts:

IYH Hourly data:

IYH Daily data:

40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial XLF was up +0.95 pct W/W to 29.63, for a very good week. Friday was soft however as the bond market softened.

Next week watch bond yields. If they move up, XLF will sell down. The key is the bond market, I think.

XLF is barely above the M40 (29.24).

Last week I wrote: "Technically, the XLF chart seems to be forming a ‘head and shoulders' pattern from last August, which is bearish. Could this be confirmation of rising interest rates and a soon-to-be bearish bond market?"

Here's the XLF Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Daily data:

45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, and MTK)

The semiconductor index (SMH) was weak. SMH was down "0.46 pct W/W, after being down a week earlier "0.63 pct. SMH now sits at 34.44.

A week ago I wrote: "SMH has been up very strongly for six weeks, but the bulls have run out of steam. Reality is setting in. Last week I wrote: "Chip stocks always do well when the autos, consumer electronics, and PC-makers are doing well. That takes a strong economy, which does not exist today. The Bulls will argue that the semiconductor industry group is a leading economic indicator. I on the other hand would say that stock promotion also has a lot to do with these "leading" things. I think the April-June rally for SMH is over, but some readers are not likely to want to stand in front of a speeding locomotive. Superman here will try anything." Seems like the train stopped just when I ordered it to. And I wasn't even around to enjoy it."

You might recall I sold INTC a few weeks back, at the peak of the hype. The price is down. I'm not unhappy. My goal is to increase the rate of return of my portfolio by at least 30 pct Y/Y, which means that every month I am trying to outperform the index. I cannot afford to be sitting in INTC for a couple months, as the stock settles back (or worse), even though Intel is on the Cara Global 100 Best Companies list.

INTC and the chip stocks did look good.

Here's the SMH Hourly and Daily data charts:

SMH Hourly data:

SMH Daily data:

50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco Services sector (IYZ) was up again, +1.07 pct W/W to close at 23.66. I had been I'm suspicious with the end of the week trading the prior week. Sometimes thee sharp end of the week moves are due to the Gnomes setting up to take markets up or down the next Monday morning. It's often hard to tell which.

IYZ is now above the M40 (23.35). I still believe that "IYZ actually looks like it is terminating a bull phase that started back in 3Q02."

Here's the IYZ Hourly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ Daily data:

55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities (XLU) hit a high of 31.06 during the week, which surprised me. But then, while XLU was up +0.49 pct W/W to 30.87, it was up +0.49 pct just on Friday. So, once again, XLU makes a week saving move.

Also, the move higher on Friday surprised me because it appeared that bond yields were going to move back up after coming off sharply on Wednesday. As I have been saying, these stocks, being high dividend payers, will be hurt when bond yields rise. Investors will simply switch out of equities into the more attractive bonds.

The point though is that this process takes time. There is a tipping point.

Here's the XLU Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLU Hourly data:

XLU Daily data:

---

Bonds:

There was a change in the bond market this week as the yield spreads grew for the first time in weeks.

From the U.S. Fixed Income (Bonds) Yield Table at Yahoo Finance, the 30-year T-Bond (actually 26 years) is now yielding 4.35 pct, up from 4.27 pct two weeks ago. At the same time, the 3-month T-Bill yield moved down slightly to 2.82 pct.

Therefore, the spread between 30-year T-Bonds and 3-month T-Bills (which had dropped from 194 basis points to 143 bp in just six weeks two weeks ago) moved from +147 basis points a week ago to +153 bp this week.

I believe that a yield spread of 300 basis points reflects a healthy economy. The way the market had been heading until last week was indicative of a deflation. Now the yield spreads are growing, and so are the base metal and precious metal prices.

And the more important yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year T-Notes (which had fallen from +76 bp to +36 bp over the past eight weeks was up to +49 bp.

I believe the character of the bond market really affects the equity market at times. For example, if the yield spreads start to grow after a long period of decline that is a sign that the economy is starting to power up. In that case the basic materials and industrial sectors are favored.

But if the yields at the long end of the bond market start to rise too quickly, that would serve to really hurt the real-estate market, and the mortgage financing market. There would be significantly more bad debts, so traders would want to avoid the related stocks.

Also if the whole yield curve rises, money starts flowing out of bonds and into both T-Bills and high dividend paying stocks that are not from high-debt companies.

For example a utility that is saddled with bond debt that has to be rolled over at higher cost of capital will not be favored, but a manufacturing company that is flush with cash, and has low debt, and a relatively low payout ratio tied to a solid dividend, and prospects for a higher dividend payout, will be favored.

As to what makes a real estate bubble, it has less to do with price of housing than the prospects for continuing to service the debt. You have to look for signs such as foreclosure increases to spot the trouble.

Also, should the equity market lift, there will be relatively more available cash going its way rather than taking on more risk, and more mortgage debt. That would cause some trouble for the housing market too.

Last week I wrote: "The eminently qualified Bill Seidman expressed another concern I have written about recently. Too much mortgage debt is being rolled over without principal being paid down. When that happens in such a ridiculously low interest rate market, it's a clear sign of a real estate bubble."

---

Commodities:

Commodity prices rebounded as I called it.

A week ago I wrote: "The 50-day MA is just 302.20, but that may hold as the USD looks like it is far over-bought here and is ready to come off, as I see it."

This week the CRB was up +2.81 pct W/W to 310.98, and looks like it's going higher next week.

I will continue to print the following list of oil stocks in sub-industry groups until another market driver, like interest rates, takes the lead. Again, that may be as soon as next week, as the oils are getting pretty rich here, and the yields and rates are starting to rise.

10101010 Oil & Gas Drilling

10101020 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

10102010 Integrated Oil & Gas

10102010 additional list.

10102020 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

10102020 additional list.

10102030 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

10102040 Oil & Gas Storage & Transport Companies in storage and/or transportation of oil, gas and/or refined products.

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Gold:

$GOLD was up +2.49 pct W/W to $437.67. The current price is now well over the M40 (429.15).

A week ago, I wrote: "Gold prices, unlike many other commodities, rallied this week, again. $GOLD was up on the week +0.99 pct W/W to $427.02. But, the M40 is $428.25, so GOLD still needs to clear this key price level before I turn really bullish on the bullion (from just modestly bullish). "

Rather than crow any more, I'll let you re-read my articles this week on gold, if you have any interest.

The more important point is where the direction for the gold market next week, and beyond. Well, the recent cycle highs are 447.05 (short-term) and 456.87 (intermediate-term). That would be a good start.

Months ago, at much lower prices, as THs were suggesting the gold price would fall below $400, I was pointing you to $450-$475 this summer. Well Tuesday, summer arrives!

This interactive chart shows the week for the Gold Bullion index.

The Philly Gold & Silver stock index (XAU) was up sharply +4.94 pct to 92.91. Since a week Friday, it was up +3.71 pct, that is a six-session move of +8.65 pct.

And I hit the precise bottom within a half-hour with PDG. On the road no less.

But M would say that's crowing, so I had better cool it. Next month may not be so kind.

The $XAU M40 is 95.75; so gold stocks now have just a short haul to get back there. I don't know what day it will be, but that day will soon come.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD was up +3.07 pct W/W to 49.43.

Last week I gave you four charts of different time series of the XGD on the TSX. I wrote that a move was at hand. Did you catch it?

A week ago I wrote here: "And Friday was up +3.38 pct. The previous Friday, XGD was up +1.36 pct, and +2.81 pct the Friday before that. So, clearly, the mood of the gold traders has turned bullish, unafraid to hold these gold shares over the weekend, and in fact seeming to anticipate monetary or geopolitical issues prior to trading on Mondays. The XGD M40 is a lot higher at 50.46, and the 12-Month MA is just 50.10, so technical resistance is close at hand, but the USD is positioned today right where the gold bulls want it."

The M40 for XGD is now 50.50, and with the USD having its first real bad day on Friday, could this move continue and take out the M40 technical resistance in the next day or so?

Here are the interactive charts of the leading goldminers on the board.

List #1

List #2

List #3

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Forex:

The U.S. Dollar finally weakened. The USD closed at 87.72, down "1.09 pct on the week. The big news was that the USD was down "1.12 pct on Friday alone.

When you tell time on a broken watch, you are going to be right twice a day. That's what I feel like with USD and the Euro.

A week ago I wrote: "The 50-day MA for the USD is 85.43, and I'm expecting the USD to come back and test that level, soon."

The M40 is now 84.47. That would be a nice first step. It may not happen. Seems like everybody is calling for further weakness in the Euro, and maybe that in itself is a good thing.

The $XEU closed up this week +1.28 pct W/W to 122.73. That was my broken clock functioning again.

You recall a week earlier, $XEU was down "0.83 pct, but that Friday it had been down "0.87 pct on the day, so the rest of that week the Euro was actually a gainer, as I pointed out. Now another gainer. Does that make a trend?

Last week I wrote: "The Euro is now well over-sold. The 50-day MA is 127.21, and I'm expecting the Euro to come back and test that level, soon." We are still a long way away from that target, but this Friday the Euro did move +1.45 pct on a single day!

What's up for next week? More orders for the Airbus? More strength for the Euro?

---

International Equities:

Isn't it ironic that a week ago I wrote: "Oil and Gold helped the Canadian equity market move higher this week, and maybe next as well. But the Japan and U.K. equity markets do not look as strong."

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan (EWJ) was up +1.67 pct on the week to 10.35, which is a nice move after two weeks of zip.

Hourly Data for EWJ:

Daily Data for EWJ:

U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The U.K. market was also stronger this week. EWU was up +1.90 pct W/W to 18.26. It was up +1.50 pct on Friday alone. Do you think there was an inflation scare in the U.S.?

Hourly Data for EWU:

Daily Data for EWU:

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC had the week I called for. Yes, EWJ and EWU were up, but the Canadian EWC was up +4.00 pct W/W to 18.22. Now that's where the beef is!

You just can't say that Canucks are called hewers for no good reason.

We Canadians might not be playing on the ice right now (I could say it's almost July after all, but that would be unkind to my fellow Canadians because after missing a whole hockey season, we should be playing in July and August, not just this September, which I'm pleased to predict that we will). But we are known for other skills as well.

We mine metals and gold. We cut trees, We fish. Some of us even don't mind potash, or uranium.

Our belt buckles might not be as big as they are in Texas, but we do know we're just a little more cyclical. ;-)

Hourly Data for EWC:

Weekly Data for EWC:

For an interactive look, here are the hourly data charts of the various international equity markets as represented by the U.S.-listed and dollar-denominated ETFs:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)
(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)
(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

---

U.S. Equities:

Here is the 30-minute data chart of the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

I continue to feel that the media hype is causing (helping?) the summer rally, but the charts now look like the move may take hold and extend for a couple more weeks.

Last week I wrote that: "The Weekly data charts show the extreme up move in the past four weeks. Beyond this point there must be drivers in the market that will take prices higher. But oil prices are high, interest rates are rising, bond yields have started to rise, and economic data is weak, so where is the move to come from?"

Elaine Garzarelli pointed out on the Kudlow Show after Friday's close that previous equity market indexes have moved up strongly in the face of broadly negative market drivers. She and Kudlow seem to be saying (maybe they did?) that it's Dow 12,000 on the horizon.

Isn't that like the Captain of the Titanic, being told he was in iceberg waters, ignoring prudence in order to heed the call of New York to make a timely and satisfying arrival?

I'm sure that another time, another ship might have been lucky enough to avoid a sinking, and met those smiling faces in New York. I, on the other hand, believe that prudence dictates going with the odds relative to the situation at hand. The cards are stacked up against this market going higher.

Yes, I do think the broad market indexes might go higher for a couple weeks; but this happens to be the right time, in my books, to start thinking about writing calls against long stock positions that have RSI indicators in the 80s and 90s.

Here is the RSI for the broad market indexes in the U.S.:
Dow 30------60.9
Nasdaq------68.8
S&P500------68.8
Russell2000—70.4

The Dow RSI is being held down by a few stocks like IBM and WMT. The other Major Market Indexes are all at about 70 for the 7-week RSI. That is the time to consider taking action to distribute stocks into the rally, and lock in profits.

The following table shows the price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

You can do this table yourself by copying the following list of the Dow 30 stocks and entering them in the window for "Summaries" at Investertech.com.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG SBC UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

Here are the Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

(AA) (AA) (Here is the Apr. 22 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jul. 22)

(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Aug. 26)

(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Aug. 26)

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Mar. 25 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Jun. 24)

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I was planning to stay at home for Father's Day tomorrow, but after receiving a spate of phone calls today, I guess I'll be headed up to see my own father. When the doctor says Dad is in his final stages, and there is nothing more can be done now in the hospital so maybe he should be returned to the Lodge, it appears his passing must be very close.

Like my Mother at the Lodge close by, I'd hope that nobody would have to live like that for so many months. It's hard on them, and us as well.

It was early February when the care providers started to console our family. That's about 140 days now, being on double death-watch for Mother and Father, wondering if the next telephone call is the big one. I would hate to not be there on Father's Day, it that was the day, so aptly named, that he died.

I tried to get through this report quickly, but other phone calls kept coming in, and my mind would wander.

There are times when it's near impossible to concentrate.

BCara@BillCara.com