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June 11, 2005

Week #23 (2005-06-11) in Review

I was away for the past three days for personal reasons, returning later than expected. The good news is I'm back. So, here is the report a day late.

Earlier this week, I received some of the usual reader comments and direct mail queries asking me to provide specific information. I responded graciously and in detail in a couple cases even though I decided some time ago that if a reader did not volunteer some information about themselves I'd just let it go. Sure enough, I received no reply, no thank you for doing that, which would have been nice.

What I did receive was a lot of spam, which wasn't. I use the best spam blockers, but you have to appreciate this isn't the usual spam. These are organized attacks, including several per minute sometimes for hours on end, linking into anything I've written about for months. These people are fishing for clicks because they sell that metric to advertisers.

This week, I have had a lot of time to think about what I'm doing with this website and blog. I decided to make changes because I'm not going to continue as is. My love for capital markets only goes so far.

As to the need for anti-spam laws, I have never advocated that. What I'd like to see is immediate prosecution under existing laws. These people are known; why are they not arrested?

If they stole my kid's bicycle or my automobile, or broke into my home, they'd be arrested. Well, they've broken into my computer and stolen my time and my patience and my willingness to contribute to society, which is worth a lot more than those other things.

And spam is not about me, it affects all of us.

I understand there are creeps everywhere; what pisses me is that so little prosecution is being done against spam artists who are causing tens of billions in damages. These people walk free on the street, and yet the authorities know who they are. What happened to the Rule of Law?

If you happen to be a federal prosecutor who disputes my claim that these people are known to you, send me an e-mail. I'll give you a list of 1,000 names. It'll take me ten minutes. And, I'm not getting paid to do your job.

Maybe that's the problem.

Basically my report this week is going to say that the bulls are hanging on by their thumbs. Next week may be ugly for all but the holders of gold shares, and maybe some oil shares. An intermediate-term decline is likely to unfold across the board.

Long-term, I'm still bullish for equities, and will be as long as interest rates are rising across all maturities. That's because rising interest rates would mean that money is becoming scarce and an expanding economy is looking for it.

Not to be confusing here, a rising interest rate is not a driver of the economy, but in the present picture would be a reflection of it. We need to see signs of economic strength.

Interest rates can rise moderately in a modest inflation cycle, but, at this point, they cannot fall lower without that being a response to deflation.

In a deflation cycle, equities and real assets will sell off significantly. In that event, my call for a cycle low of about 9,800 for the Dow will not hold. Not even close.

Having said that, I am reasonably confident, and have been since I started blogging about 13 months ago, that: (i) the equity market is in a long-term bull, (ii) the global economy will continue to grow at about 3 pct annually, and (iii) there will not be in the U.S. an inverted yield curve any time soon.

The key is long-term bond yields. T-bill yields are going to rise in order to fall in line with Fed policy, because in the short end of the debt markets, interest rates and bond yields are highly correlated. But long bond yields need to rise in sync. Otherwise there is a black flag waving on the U.S. economy.

To repeat; I am looking for signals. If the economy is overheated, where money would be in great demand at commercial banks, then central bank policy does in fact work. The Fed, for example, could then raise the rate they charge to the commercial banks, and that would soon slow an overheated economy.

But today there is so much cash in the hands of corporations, and so much underground economy that runs on barter (i.e., exchange of services), that raising the bank rate would have (and has had) little effect. The economy in North America and Europe needs to pick up, which requires changes to fiscal policy.

I say if U.S. T-Bill yields move to say 3.25 pct, then the 30 year T-Bond (26 years) yield has to move up to about 6.25 pct, i.e., yield spread of 300 basis points to be signalling economic health.

To summarize; given the fiscal policies of the U.S. in place today, its monetary policy is now ineffective. The Federal Reserve Bank cannot impact long yields. Only business spending can do that. But corporations are flush with cash, so their cash flow is going into long bonds, driving prices higher and yields lower.

If the U.S. Administration wants to continue building a service economy and a financial trading economy, then one of two things has to take place to alleviate the current pressures: (i) get the fiscal house in order (more tax, less spending), or (ii) create mega federal projects, like long-span bridges, improved inland waterways, or huge new technology centers and a better Internet, that will serve to directly improve productivity.

Bill's Portfolio:

Long-term I think the broad equity market in the U.S. is in a bull trend, but the intermediate term cyclic phase started down on the first day of the year. For four weeks in May, the market's short-term price cycle has been moving higher, but then started topping two weeks ago. Now I think the short-term cycle will head down, and work in sync with the falling intermediate-term cycle to try to find a cyclic bottom where the long-term equity bull market can continue.

I think that cycle bottom for the Dow will be around 9,800, which is about 7 pct lower than where the index presently sits. Nasdaq started its cyclic decline already this month, and now the Dow is about to follow.

There has been a run-up in prices in the technology sector (GICS 45), including HPQ, often on speculation. This week I think HPQ will come back to earth.

Observers know that the bulls are strongly touting the tech stocks, but two weeks ago I exited INTC at $27.39, and am pleased I did.


Intel Corp
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For reasons I'll detail later, perhaps in a comprehensive separate report, I went long Friday at 11:00am, the senior gold mining producer Placer Dome (NYSE: PDG).

I believe there will be a significant 10 pct to 15 pct up move in PDG in the next 30 days. This is an Intra-Month trade (18 sessions or fewer).


Placer Dome Inc.
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On Friday morning, at the same time I bought PDG at $13.90, I sold GM at $35, after catching the market open on CNBC. The selling hype for GM was simply ridiculous.

With old file footage, plus some misleading words, and zero evidence to support such wild claims, the CNBC "personalities" pumped the audience with claims that the UAW union would re-open labor contracts and address the healthcare costs issue.

If, as and when GM and UAW agree to re-open existing labor contracts, the parties have a duty to disclose. I'm still waiting to hear from the horse's mouth, not the CNBC jockey.

If I could re-play the video of CNBC anchors touting GM, I think you too would be ill. That was cheerleading at its best.

They even went so far as to extrapolate this nonsense into on-air statements, like "If Ford could do the same as GM;" As GM did what? That reeks.

And if I hear Joe Kernan talk one more time about Disney and Pixar getting together, I may put my foot through the monitor. "Come on guys, get your act together!" is simply not reporting. It's promoting, and for promoters to call themselves journalists is disgusting, in my book. Let's start calling a spade, a spade.

Speaking of video services " both online streaming video plus video clips of past shows, you know I have pointed out ROBTV. I challenge CNBC to do the same.

I'm guessing, because of a lack of intellectual honesty, they won't, which is one reason I say "- head to head against ROBTV -- CNBC just can't cut it.


General Motors Corp
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Last fall, when GM dropped well below 40 I recommended accumulating it. When it dropped well below 30, I recommended buying it. I've done well with GM; let's close the books.

In case you are a new reader of my blog, let's review exactly what I wrote in my Week #17 in Review (April 30), with XLY (Apr 29 weekly close) at 31.05, MYG at $9.63, and GM at $26.25:

"For all my negative talk here, XLY is now over-sold, and could be ready for a rally next week. Wouldn't that be something if GM and your friendly Maytag repairman MYG were to lead the charge down Wall Street?"

Now here's the chart proof that I called the cycle bottom at the end of April for XLY (up +6.7 pct), MYG (up +50.5 pct) and GM (up +31.5 pct, all in exactly six weeks).


217c002.jpg


Do you recall my reference to Pisani's smart-ass on-air remark that day, "Maytag? May Day! May Day!"

Some people you just know are liars. Do you know how to tell?

Their lips are moving.

Getting back to my rant about GM, I said a few weeks ago that whenever I see THs pimp a stock, I start looking at the charts to find a technical exit point. But when these same people start frothing at the mouth, I don't even wait; I'm gone.

When any one of those same THs start giving you market calls as good as mine, then I'll start to pay them an ounce of respect. Until then, whenever they say buy, I say sell.

It's worked well for me over the years.


Sector ETF:

This week there were just three of my closely monitored ten ETFs that were down, and seven up, but are you guessing I even see the glass half full (or empty)?

XLE was strong, and may continue so. The rest are in trouble. Let me show you why I think that.

Take a look at the last hour of trading on Friday for XLB, XLY, XLP, and XLF. Without a rash of end of the week buy orders, these four ETFs would have closed down on the week, making my scorecard, seven down and three up.

But it is worse; take away the last two hours trading in IYZ and three hours trading in XLU this week, and they too would have been down, making it nine down and one up.

I say it again; the market plays people. It's trying always to fool the suckers into believing something different is happening.

When you see an airline ticket price at say $300, you have to know that the large majority of seats were sold at $600. That's the way life is these days; it's mostly fiction, trumped up to cause you to buy something that is overpriced.

Didn't I say the same type of thing last week: "It doesn't seem like a bad week after all, until you look to see the ‘market on close' buy orders that pushed up the closing prices of IYZ and XLU into positive territory on the day. Otherwise, Friday would have resulted in 9 of 10 losers."

This is what goes on in a topping market; you are being misled that the equity market is stronger than it really is.

I remain bearish for now, for the broad market.

Here are the ETF charts for sectors 10 (energy: IYE), 15 (basic materials: IYM), 20 (industrial: IYJ), 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY), 30 (consumer staples: XLP), 35 (healthcare: IYH), 40 (financial: IYG), 45 (technology: IGM, IGV and IGW), 50 (telecom: IYZ) and 55 (utilities: IDU).


10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, and IXC)


XLE closed Week #23 at 43.65, which is up +2.39 pct on the week, after being up +1.50 pct a week ago. But 3.9 pct is a lot in two weeks, especially when XLE was up +5.93 pct the previous week, and +2.16 pct the one before that.

That's 12 pct in four weeks. How much market cap do you really think Big Oil can grow in a month? I mean, is there something new going on in the oil patch that the world is not aware of?

Or is this move just a cover for the rest of the sector groups that are topping out?


Here's the XLE Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLE Hourly data:

217d001.jpg

XLE Daily data:

217d002.jpg


15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, and VAW)


The Basic Material ETF XLB closed up 0.11 pct to 28.13, and was up +0.25 pct on Friday.

I think there is a little more upside to XLB, but mostly because of the golds, and I'd prefer to play the XGD ETF on the Toronto Exchange. Last week I wrote, "Again, I say that I think the Gold Bear is coming out of hibernation", and what a week the golds had.

Actually, what a Friday the goldminers had!

Here's the XLB Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLB Hourly data:

217e001.jpg

XLB Daily data:

217e002.jpg



20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials ETF (XLI) was down "0.23 pct to 30.15, which is barely holding above the M40. CAT (up +3.25 pct) helped.

Traders in this Industrials sector, just like the Basic Materials, have to be closely watching the USD action in the next month. This coming week, I believe that the over-bought USD will come off, which could help these two sectors for a couple weeks anyway.

Here's the XLI Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLI Hourly data:

217f001.jpg

XLI Daily data:

217f002.jpg


25 (consumer discretionary: XLY and VCR)


Consumer Discretionary Spending stocks (XLY) were up +0.24 pct to 33.13, which is just barely above the M40.


Here's the XLY Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLY Hourly data:

217g001.jpg

XLY Daily data:

217g002.jpg

30 (consumer staples: XLP and VDC)

Consumer Staples (XLP) was up +0.04 pct W/W to 23.35. That's up just a penny.


Here's the XLP Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLP Hourly data:

217h001.jpg

XLP Daily data:

217h002.jpg


35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)


IYH was down "0.31 pct W/W, but was down "0.39 pct on Friday. The same Friday weakness has happened every week for six weeks, since Week #17. That is a sign of bearishness. Nervous traders don't want to hold weak stocks over the weekend.


Here's the IYH Hourly and Daily data charts:


IYH Hourly data:

217i001.jpg

IYH Daily data:

217i002.jpg

40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)


The Financial XLF went up +0.24 pct and was down "0.31 pct on Friday to 29.35.

XLF is barely above the M40. Technically, the chart seems to be forming a ‘head and shoulders' pattern from last August, which is bearish. Could this be confirmation of rising interest rates and a soon to be bearish bond market? I'm not so sure.


Here's the XLF Hourly and Daily data charts:


XLF Hourly data:

217j001.jpg

XLF Daily data:

217j002.jpg

45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, and MTK)

SMH was down "0.63 pct W/W, but "0.1.98 pct on Friday to 34.60. It has been up very strongly for six weeks, but the bulls have run out of steam. Reality is setting in.

Last week I wrote: "Chip stocks always do well when the autos, consumer electronics, and PC-makers are doing well. That takes a strong economy, which does not exist today. The Bulls will argue that the semiconductor industry group is a leading economic indicator. I on the other hand would say that stock promotion also has a lot to do with these "leading" things. I think the April-June rally for SMH is over, but some readers are not likely to want to stand in front of a speeding locomotive. Superman here will try anything."

Seems like the train stopped just when I ordered it to. And I wasn't even around to enjoy it.


INTC and the chip stocks did look good.

Here's the SMH Hourly and Daily data charts:


SMH Hourly data:

217k001.jpg

SMH Daily data:

217k002.jpg


50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco Services sector (IYZ) was up +0.39 pct W/W to close at 23.41. But trading in the last two hours put it up +0.60 pct on the day, so I'm suspicious.

IYZ is barely holding above the M40. As I said a month ago, "IYZ actually looks like it is terminating a bull phase that started back in 3Q02."

Here's the IYZ Hourly and Daily data charts:


IYZ Hourly data:

217l001.jpg

IYZ Daily data:

217l002.jpg


55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities have tracked the oils again. XLU was up +0.79 pct W/W, which is less than recent weeks. Trading in the last three hours on Friday put XLU up +0.42 pct on the day, which made the week look better than it really was.

These stocks, being high dividend payers, will be hurt when bond yields rise. Investors will simply switch out of equities into the more attractive bonds.


Here's the XLU Hourly and Daily data charts:

XLU Hourly data:

217m001.jpg

XLU Daily data:

217m002.jpg



Bonds:

There was a small reversal of the flattening action across the yield curve as well as an increase in yieldsas the long bonds fell off in price this week.


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From the U.S. Fixed Income (Bonds) Yield Table at Yahoo Finance, the 30-year T-Bond (actually 26 years) is now yielding 4.32 pct, up from 4.27 pct.

At the same time, the 3-month T-Bill yield moved up to 2.85 pct from 2.84 pct W/W. Therefore, the spread between 30-year T-Bonds and 3-month T-Bills (which had dropped from 194 basis points to 143 bp in just six weeks) is now at 147 basis points.

In my book, a yield spread of 300 basis points reflects a healthy economy. The way the market had been heading until this week at least was indicative of a deflation.

But all is not well. The more important spread between the 10-year and 2-year T-Notes (which had fallen from 76 bp, to 65 bp, 57 bp, 56 bp, 54 bp, 47 bp, 44 bp, to 42 bp last week) has nearly gone flat, at just +36 bp.

As I have said, "I don't see enough business borrowing in the financial system to drive interest rates higher, so the Fed tightening is just serving to withdraw liquidity, which under the circumstances ought to be hurting the stock market. As long as foreigners wish to continue buying U.S. debt securities, I can understand the bond yields falling. Surprised maybe, but I can understand it. What I don't understand is how the average TH can point to a healthy and growing U.S. economy with the narrow yield spreads and the flattening yield curve. Traders get very nervous at times like this."

The eminently qualified Bill Seidman expressed another concern I have written about recently. Too much mortgage debt is being rolled over without principal being paid down. When that happens in such a ridiculously low interest rate market, it's a clear sign of a real estate bubble.


Commodities:

Commodity prices started falling again, down "1.38 pct W/W, including "0.56 pct on Friday to 302.48.

The 50-day MA is just 302.20, but that may hold as the USD looks like it is far over-bought here and is ready to come off, as I see it.

The $CRB recent daily data cycle top of 310.25, and the weekly data cycle top of 323.33, are technical resistance lines for this popular commodity price index.

As I was away I wasn't able to watch this market closely, so I will defer comment until next week.


217p001.jpg


I will continue to print the following list of oil stocks in sub-industry groups until another market driver, like interest rates, takes the lead, which may be as soon as next week.

10101010 Oil & Gas Drilling

10101020 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

10102010 Integrated Oil & Gas

10102010 additional list.

10102020 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

10102020 additional list.

10102030 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

10102040 Oil & Gas Storage & Transport Companies in storage and/or transportation of oil, gas and/or refined products.


Gold:

Gold prices, unlike many other commodities, rallied this week, again. $GOLD was up on the week +0.99 pct W/W to $427.02. But, the M40 is $428.25, so GOLD still needs to clear this key price level before I turn really bullish on the bullion (from just modestly bullish).

As I said a week ago, "I'd be looking for some support in the form of a weakening USD". That didn't happen this week. But something better did happen: gold shares were up very strongly on Friday.


This interactive chart shows the week for the Gold Bullion index.


217q001.jpg


The Philly Gold & Silver stock index (XAU) was up +0.44 pct to 88.54, but Friday alone was up +3.71 pct.

The $XAU M50 is 86.44; so gold stocks are above the 50-day MA, but have 7.8 pct to get back to the 200-day Moving Average (95.47).


217r001.jpg


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD was up +1.96 pct W/W to 47.96.

And Friday was up +3.38 pct. The previous Friday, XGD was up +1.36 pct, and +2.81 pct the Friday before that. So, clearly, the mood of the gold traders has turned bullish, unafraid to hold these gold shares over the weekend, and in fact seeming to anticipate monetary or geopolitical issues prior to trading on Mondays.

The XGD M40 is a lot higher at 50.46, and the 12-Month MA is just 50.10, so technical resistance is close at hand, but the USD is positioned today right where the gold bulls want it.


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Here are the interactive charts of the leading goldminers on the board.

List #1

List #2

List #3



Forex:

The U.S. Dollar got stronger again this week. The USD closed at 88.69, which was up +0.73 pct W/W, but Friday was up +0.69 pct.

So, when I was thinking it might weaken this week, it didn't, but it took some bullish trading on Friday to keep it moving up. That did set a new cycle high, at 88.69, up from 88.35, but the USD is very over-bought here, and may back down.

The 5-day MA for the USD is 85.43, and I'm expecting the USD to come back and test that level, soon.


217t001.jpg


The $XEU closed down "0.83 pct also, to 121.18. On Friday the Euro was down "0.87 pct on the day, so the rest of the week was actually a gainer.

The Euro is now well over-sold. The 50-day MA is 127.21, and I'm expecting the Euro to come back and test that level, soon.


217u001.jpg


International Equities:

Oil and Gold helped the Canadian equity market move higher this week, and maybe next as well. But the Japan and U.K. equity markets do not look as strong.

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan (EWJ) was up +0.10 pct on the week to 10.18, which is a single penny this week, after being up just a single penny a week earlier.

There was a big drop Thursday and Friday morning, but I was away and didn't catch the process.


Hourly Data for EWJ:
217v002.jpg


Weekly Data for EWJ:
217v003.jpg


U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The U.K. market was stronger this week. EWU was up +1.01 pct W/W to 17.92. It was down "0.28 pct on Friday.

I still believe there are a lot of problems with the economy and forex considerations in Europe and the U.K., so I do not see much reason to be bullish here.


Hourly Data for EWU:
217w001.jpg


Weekly Data for EWU:
217w002.jpg


Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

After being quite oversold a couple weeks ago, EWC has rallied back. This week the EWC was up +0.69 pct W/W to 17.52, after being up +0.75 the week earlier.

Higher golds and oils helped the Canadian traders to another win.

The loss of Alanis Morissette wasn't really a loss to Canadians. This fall, if NHL hockey returns as expected, I'm anticipating that, quid pro quo, Mr. John Smith, formerly of Dallas TX, who came to Waterloo Ontario to make his mark programming RIM BlackBerry pda wireless email solutions will be invited to sing the Canadian national anthem at the Leafs-Canadiens opening game.

Hourly Data for EWC:
217x001.jpg


Weekly Data for EWC:
217x002.jpg


For an interactive look, here are the hourly data charts of the various international equity markets as represented by the U.S.-listed and dollar-denominated ETFs:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)
(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)
(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).



U.S. Equities:

Here is the 10-minute data chart of the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes. You can clearly see the end-of-the-week window dressing.


217y001.jpg


The 30-minute data charts show the erratic nature of trading through a topping out process that is rapidly unfolding. Note that except from the last hour on Friday, the equities were dropping rapidly all week after the first hour Tuesday morning. Stocks are being distributed into the hype created by Wall Street and CNBC.


217y002.jpg


The Weekly data charts show the extreme up move in the past four weeks. Beyond this point there must be drivers in the market that will take prices higher. But oil prices are high, interest rates are rising, bond yields have started to rise, and economic data is weak, so where is the move to come from?

My look earlier at the sector ETFs showed some strength Friday in the telecom and utility sectors, once again. But, recall our point a week ago as well as this week, that there was a degree of week ending window dressing.

Other than Big Oil, which has had a flaming hot month, up 12 pct, where is the leadership to come from? The Banks are burdened, Intel just reported and that stock is now headed down, and so forth.

So, where's the beef?


217y003.jpg


Speaking of beef, the big loser in the Dow this week was McDonald's. MCD ended down "6.19 pct. Other losers were: MRK, down "2.18 pct, IBM down "1.35 pct, INTC down "1.28 pct, and UTX down "1.25 pct.

You see, I was happy to exit INTC two weeks ago.

Re MCD, you'll find the current Value Line report published this week, at the link below. I haven't had the time to look at it, yet.

In thinking about the bigger picture, I still feel there is a possibility that a full-fledged bear market could unfold. For that to occur, however, I believe that interest rates in the U.S. would have to turn north and literally skyrocket from here, which is possible I suppose, but not likely for many months.

I do believe an Intra-Year cyclic bear phase is soon to unfold, taking the Dow down some 700 points, but likely not more. Already, some of you are thinking I'm nuts; but, really, a Dow at 9,800 would be a very modest bear.

This week for U.S. equities, there were 13 of 30 Dow stocks up W/W, which was an improvement on last week, where 5 were up and 25 were down.

The big Dow winner this week was GM, up +11.57 pct W/W. Other winners were HPQ up +3.43 pct, CAT up +3.25 pct, MO up +2.89 pct, and DD up +2.49 pct.

GM had been down -4.6 pct over the past two weeks. I expressed my views on it earlier. Sold to you at $35, Friday morning.

I can only take so much b.s. from source, about one stock, on one day.

Even if my surname was Waggoner-Lutz I'd have offed the stock soon after that Friday performance by CNBC.

The following table shows the price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.


217z001.jpg


A week ago Friday, only two Dow component stocks were up on the day: BA and HPQ. This week, these stocks, plus MO, were at or close to their highs for 2005.


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You can do this table yourself by copying the following list of the Dow 30 stocks and entering them in the window for "Summaries" at Investertech.com.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG SBC UTX VZ WMT XOM

After you bring up the list, click on the Performance tab. To sort for the relative price performance for any recent period, you just need to click on the column header of the period that interests you.

Here are the Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

(AA) (AA) (Here is the Apr. 22 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jul. 22)

(AIG) (AIG) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Aug. 26)

(AXP) (AXP) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Aug. 26)

(BA) (BA) (Here is the Mar. 25 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Jun. 24)

(C) (C) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on C: next one is due Aug. 26)

(CAT) (CAT) (Here is the Apr. 29 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jul. 29)

(DD) (DD) ( Here is the Apr. 22 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jul. 22)

(DIS) (DIS) (Here is the May 20 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Aug. 19)

(GE) (GE) (Here is the April 15 Value Line report on GE: next one is due July 15)

(GM) (GM) Here is the Jun. 3 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Sep. 3)

(HD) (HD) (Here is the Apr. 7 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jul. 8)

(HON) (HON) (Here is the Apr. 29 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jul. 29)

(HPQ) (HPQ) ( Here is the April 15 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due July 15)

(IBM) (IBM) ( Here is the April 15 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due July 15)

(INTC) (INTC) ( Here is the April 15 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due July 15)

(JNJ) (JNJ) Here is the Jun. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Sep. 3)

(JPM) (JPM) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Aug. 26)

(KO) (KO) (Here is the May 6 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Aug 5)

(MCD) (MCD) (Here is the Jun 10 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Sep. 10)

(MMM) (MMM) (Here is the May 20 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Aug 19)

(MO) (MO) (Here is the May 6 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Aug 5)

(MRK) (MRK) ( Here is the Apr. 22 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jul. 22)

(MSFT) (MSFT) (Here is the May 27 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Aug. 26)

(PFE) (PFE) (Here is the Apr. 22 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jul. 22)

(PG) (PG) (Here is the Apr. 7 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jul. 8)

(SBC) (SBC) (Here is the Apr. 1 Value Line report on SBC: next one is due Jul. 1)

(UTX) (UTX) (Here is the Apr. 29 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jul. 29)

(VZ) (VZ) (Here is the Apr. 1 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Jul. 1)

(WMT) (WMT) (Here is the May 13 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Aug. 12)

(XOM) (XOM) (Here is the March 18 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Jun. 17)


Finally for this week, I see that Google is now trading up at $79 billion market cap, and TV-based stock promoters are telling us it is headed soon to $360+. That would put GOOG into Verizon (NYSE: VZ) territory, which just happens to be the 15th largest Dow 30 component.

Some are even touting $450 for GOOG, which would place it up at the size of IBM, or 13th largest. About that number 13, are you feeling lucky?

I have a belief, whether or not well-founded, that Google's so-called "monetization revolution for web content producers" like me, named Adsense, makes no sense.

But that's just me.

You see I happen to think Adsense is a con that permits spammers to develop more hits and get paid more Adsense bucks by stupid operators who are legit, and by pharmaceutical manufacturers, and people who run electronic casinos.

But, I guess if you can run an electronic poker game for nothing, or ship pills that cost next to nothing, why not pay real bucks to a few spammers in hopes you actually get to meet somebody real?

Google's promises of using Adsense to earn high incomes (like $100,000) is more than a bit misleading, even for bloggers like me who aspire to a million hits daily. Then again, maybe Page and Brin are referring to those high payouts over a lifetime, presuming again that I'm sixteen years of age.

But it's a good story, and, like most fisherman tales, one that grows bigger by the week.

So thinking about GOOG's $79 billion market cap, and rocketing, according to some at CNBC and on Wall Street, I thought I'd have a look at the market cap of the Dow 30, starting at the largest " just to see the mega corporations that Google has in it's crosshairs.


217z002.jpg


When I returned home Saturday, I found my wife planning a party for me today. She phoned my kids to come over for a special Father's Day dinner. Trouble is, they told her; it's not Father's Day for another week.

I told her I'd take two this year.

Maybe I don't deserve it, but I sure feel I need it.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 11, 2005 08:01:41 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

Bill:

Picked this up from another blog. Source for data is found at:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/

First quarter credit growth was stunning, and parabolic. It's amazing they would even think of pausing in raising rates...

Q1 2005 Z.1 “Flow of Funds:

The Credit Bubble remains in a period of spectacular blow-off excess. First quarter Non-financial Debt increased at a 10.0% seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAA) rate. This was up from the fourth quarter's 8.2%. One must go all the way back to 1986 (when 10-year Treasury yields averaged 7.66%) for a year of stronger Non-financial Debt growth (11.9%). It is also worth noting that the first quarter growth rate was almost double the ‘90s 5.37% average annual rate. First quarter Non-Financial Debt expanded a record $2.411 Trillion SAA. This compares to 2004's $1.918 Trillion, 2003's $1.668 Trillion, 2002's $1.321 Trillion, 2001's $1.115 Trillion and 2000's $836 billion. During the decade of the nineties, Non-financial Debt expanded on average $700 billion annually. Blow-off Credit creation excess is now more than three times this pace.

The Credit system is certainly firing on all cylinders. Federal Government borrowings expanded 13.8% SAA, Households 9.3%, Corporate 7.5%, and State & Local 16.2%. Non-federal debt expanded 9.1% annualized, the strongest quarterly growth since Q2 2000. Non-financial Debt was up 8.9% y-o-y. For the quarter, Total Credit Market Debt (non-financial and financial) expanded at a 6.9% pace to $37.31 Trillion (306% of GDP).

The growth of Financial Sector Credit Market borrrowings slowed to a rate of 4.8%, as GSE asset growth turned negative. However, GSE stagnation was more than offset by a surge in Bank Credit expansion - bank asset growth predominantly financed by deposits, repos and other non-“Credit Market� borrowings.

Bank Credit expanded an amazing $1.054 Trillion seasonally-adjusted annualized during the quarter to $7.0 Trillion. This was a growth rate of 13.4%. One has to go all the way back to inflationary 1978 (13.6%) to find a year of stronger Bank Credit expansion. Bank Credit expanded at an 11.6% rate during the past six months. This is up from 2004's blistering 9.2% increase and compares to the average annual 7.2% expansion during the five-year period 2000-2004. Bank Credit expanded by an average 6.2% annually during the (supposedly “disinflationary�) ‘90s and 8.5% during the (conspicuously inflationary) ‘80s. The first quarter's record nominal Bank Credit increase of $225.6 billion exceeds the $215 billion average annual growth during the decade of the ‘90s (and there has been no letup in bank Credit growth during the second quarter!).

Bank Loans expanded at a 9.5% rate during the quarter and were up 9.9% y-o-y. Bank Loan growth averaged 5.8% annually during the ‘90s. Bank Loans were up 17.5% during the most recent two-year period. Bank Mortgages expanded at a 14.5% rate during the quarter to $2.69 Trillion, with a 12-month gain of 15.4% and two-year rise of 28%. For comparison, Bank Mortgage loans expanded an annual average 6.9% during the ‘90s. Bank Mortgage holdings have increased $360 billion over the past year. This compares to the nineties annual average of $72.5 billion (2000-2004 average $220bn). Or, from a different angle, Bank Mortgage loans expanded $727 billion during the past 10 quarters, compared to an increase of $725 billion during the ten years of the nineties. Bank Credit has now doubled over a period of just less than 10 years."

Posted by: jill at June 12, 2005 11:18 PM [link]

Bill, My apologies for jumping to the conclusion that you were talking about normal email spam (as opposed to trackback spam). In an effort to remain positive, I hope a reasonable technical solution in this particular spam arms race is still easily within reach:
"Spammers are getting more aggressive with Movable Type blogs everyday. I have found the only really effective measure to completely block spam is the combination of using MT3 and TypeKey to require approval of comments before they are posted and the MT-Blacklist to keep your inbox from being swamped by hundreds of spam comments waiting for approval...". Contains some recent updates.
http://www.elise.com/mt/archives/000246concerning_spam.php

Cheers,
Keith.

Posted by: Keith Nelson at June 13, 2005 8:21 AM [link]