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June 28, 2005

Silver moon? Tues., June 28, 2005, 11:23 AM

About 8:30am this morning, the silver spot price took a dip from $7.19 to $7.11 before rebounding a couple pennies. That is close to the 40-Week Moving Average (M40), which is about $7.07. As you know, commodity traders are mindful of technical support and resistance lines like the M40, which many consider to be the most important one.

I tend to rely more on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a key indicator because it combines the effect of time and space, which is multi-dimensional.

Investopedia gives a good review of the RSI. It also gives an explanation of how to use this indicator.

Here are the five heaviest weighted Silver stocks in the market along with their interactive (click on the link in the heading) and current charts (below) for the 30-minute, daily, weekly and monthly time series data analyzed with the RSI:

30-Minute Data Charts of Silver Stocks

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Daily Data Charts of Silver Stocks

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Weekly Data Charts of Silver Stocks

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Monthly Data Charts of Silver Stocks

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What traders want to do is look at the RSI charts to see the RSI(7), RSI(14), and RSI(21) indicator values, for each time series.

The Monthly (long-term) data chart is more important than the Weekly, which is more important than the Daily, which is more important than the Hourly or Half-Hourly, in terms of the study of momentum, which is what a Stochastics-type indicator like RSI does for you.

So, if I'm looking for a "buy" trade in a silver stock, based on my fundamental and quantitative analysis of corporate and stock data for these companies, plus my assessment of the economy, commodities (including spot silver and gold), interest rates, and forex markets, then my decision comes down pretty much to the study of momentum.

Bearing in mind that I have already made my decision to buy one of these silver stocks, I then run the four time series charts with the RSI analysis.

I am looking for commonality, which in this case applies to the quality of the RSI data across all four of the time horizons. Specifically, I am looking for RSI that has fallen below 30 and has turned around and headed back to 30 or above " for all time series.

I am also looking for synchronicity, which in this case applies to the majority of charts for companies whose stocks trade with a high price correlation due to the fact they are in the same business.

Now a couple companies in any group may be having "issues" related to management, shareholders, or whatever, so the price data, including the RSI data, may be temporarily out of whack. So I try to see similar rhythms across at least two-thirds of the charts in a relatively homogenous group of companies.

Now, I'm going to let you do the reading, learning, and application of this type of analysis if it is the least bit interesting to you. I am only telling you how I do things, not what to do.

The final tactic is to look for any evidence of the crowd coming to you. You don't want to chase a stock once you have made a decision to buy it.

So you look for weakness, like what happened in the silver bullion early this morning, tied to gold bullion weakness and the strength in the USD. Typically that comes with the mass media talking heads spouting off at how bad a deal what you want to buy really is. Their garbage is your treasure, and never forget it.

There is a principle here that, while difficult to accept, is crucial to successful trading. It's called the Buyer's Market and the Seller's Market. You want to buy in a Buyer's Market and sell in a Seller's Market, the exact same way you want to buy real estate, or goods and services in your normal business.

When most people are prepared to sell their house at under market; that's called a Buyer's Market. Right?

Same for stocks; you want to buy into weakness, and sell into strength. To do that, you have to discipline yourself against having your emotions of fear and greed play you.

To succeed as a trader, you have to learn how to play the fear and greed of others.

Listen to what I wrote in my Weekly Dow 30 Journal Publication of 1999 " where I warned readers that I was selling and shorting ahead of the bursting of the Y2K-Internet Bubble:


From Week 32-1999: Aug 14 (10973.65)

For years we've made the case that the market is a game that plays people. Without enough self-discipline to control one's emotions, an investor will never be successful. He or she will simply be conned by every ‘head fake' and outright deception that Wall Street can serve up in their constant pursuit of greed.

Every individual has to have a trading plan and to work that plan. We'd like our Dow 30 Journal to carry a guarantee of investment success, but that's not possible. What is absolutely certain however is that with just two things " facts and common sense " anybody can take on Wall Street and win.

At the turn of the century, Charles Dow in fact said: "The man who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business seems to think that totally different methods should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing is further than the truth."


You just have to believe that Charles Dow understood the art of trading. That quote was made about 30 years prior to the Great Crash of 1929 where the broker-dealers almost suffered catastrophic failure, which caused the level playing field to change forever. Those bankers, vowing never again to suffer such losses, lobbied their friends in Washington to create a Securities Act (1933, 1934) and a Securities and Exchange Commission (1934) that grossly favored the sell-side broker-dealer.

As I say, it's been an unfortunate joke on society ever since. But that's another story: Charles Dow would have understood the difference between capital markets (meaning a facility for the owners of capital to exchange their securities) and the financial services industry (and their need to serve corporations by selling products and new issue stock to the public).

When I started in the securities industry, it was blasphemy to talk Stochastic analysis, short selling, hedging, and the like. Owners of capital had to pay 3 pct to buy a stock, and 3 pct to sell a stock. The broker-dealers had a license to print money. The public who was being "serviced" one sucker at a time was taught that "trading" was bad and that "investing" (a code word for buying what they were selling) was good.

But, slowly, the owner of capital is seeing the light, and putting these broker-dealers and fund salesmen back where they belong " in fact back to where they are registered " as sales persons.

The one thing above all else that my dear Dad taught me at a young age was in the form of a rhetorical question, "Why would anybody walk into a store and ask a salesman what they (the principal) needed?" It is a ludicrous concept, but the public has been taught that "investing" is good.

That's why I call what it is that I and you do, precisely what it is, "i.e., Trading In Securities".

And as a trader you have to learn concepts like what is a Buyer's Market and Seller's Market, and how to understand and apply your knowledge of trend and cycle phases in securities price series.

If you are new to the game, you might want to start with assessing gold and silver shares using RSI. Before you do, you might want to check what I had to say in my Week #25 in Review last weekend.

I hope that readers who get a lot of value from this website and blog will pass the co-ordinates along to family, friends and colleagues.

Thank you.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 28, 2005 11:21:54 AM | Category: Trend & Cycle Phases

Discourse

Speaking of Silver, I read on fleckensteincapital.com that Bill Gates owns 8% of PAAS.

Did those keywords spark any intereste for May? About to pull June data.
MW

Posted by: Mike Wilmot at June 28, 2005 8:01 PM [link]