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June 8, 2005

Same old Sears, Wed., June 8, 2005, 8:30 AM

The U.S. retail department store business is a tough one these days. It's a little like the planes, trains and automobiles businesses, where the average American consumer (not the high end) is having difficulty with the present state of the economy. So, for a stock trader like Edward Lampert ("Eddie" to his legion of fans on Wall Street), where better to come into this picture than to create "shareholder value" in a consumer-oriented company?

Seems we've seen this movie before. It was, in fact, the 1987 movie "Wall Street", with Michael Douglas, one of my all-time favorites. I guess we didn't learn from Gordon Gekko. ;-)

So Lampert takes control of Kmart and drives up his currency in order to take control of Sears. Other than paper shuffling, what do we have here other than a couple also-ran retailer chains being merged to create a bigger also-ran. In time, under the right operating management, the new company might challenge industry number two, Target (NYSE: TGT), which would be good for the average American.

But, is this all about retailing goods, or stocks?

Lampert seems to have the same view as advertisers for the backmarker cars of NASCAR: get your billboard on the track, and you're in play; a lot of people are watching.

And then, win or lose, other games can be played. Even if you never actually win, you "win", if you catch my drift.

Other than Martha's story, Hollywood (probably NBC Universal) will likely soon be all over this one. First Gordon Gekko, next: Martha, and Eddie.

I wonder if Michael Douglas will return to play Eddie? And how about Robin Williams for Martha?

The inaugural operating results for the merged Sears Holdings Corp (NDQ: SHLD) were released to the public, and guess what? If Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), the industry's 800-pound gorilla, can't cut it, why do investors think that losers like Sears and Kmart would?

You can read the financial results if you wish. I choose not to waste my time. The AP wire story told me all I need to know:

"Had Sears stores' full-quarter results been included, Sears Holdings would have lost $78 million on flat revenue of $12.8 billion, including the accounting charge ($90 million) and $37 million in merger-related costs, down from a profit of $38 million a year earlier, the company said."

These results yesterday sent high-flyer SHLD crashing 9.66 pct or $13.44 to $141.50, where it is still over-priced.

Some retail sales analysts said that the company's inability to increase same store sales was disappointing. We heard the same about other retailers. That's what happens when the average consumer is feeling a pinch in the pocketbook.

But that's not what bothers me.

Ask yourself how often you have heard SHLD touted as a stock play in the past couple months. Some of you who watch one particular TV personality would have to admit that the SHLD pitch has been made daily. Daily for Pete's sake.

Or should I say, for Eddie's sake?

The same AP wire story also had this comment: "Sears chairman Edward Lampert seemed to refute the notion that ‘you cannot continue to lose market share and survive in retailing' in a message to shareholders yesterday, saying the newly formed Sears Holdings is willing to forgo market-share gains in favor of "creating value" through improved cash flow and strategic acquisitions.

In other words, SHLD is not about the retailing of department store goods by professional operating managers; it's about retailing SHLD paper to shareholders, by a Wall Streeter.

In any event, we are all entitled to our opinions. Have a look at the SHLD stock chart over recent weeks, which is fact.


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If you are going to learn how to DIY (Do It Yourself) as a securities trader, rather than blindly follow traders like Wall Street Eddie, you will have to have your eyes open for these kinds of moves.

Note that prior to yesterday's collapse, over 11 trading sessions from May 18 to June 3, SHLD was up +16.9 pct. Then in three days, the market cap was hammered by $2.4 billion.

I was going to say, the public was taken for $2.4 billion, but I don't wish to be argumentative.

I do want you to see that pre-open orders on May 18, 23 and 26, plus a noon day trade on June 2 and another pre-market open order on June 3, made up almost all the increase in the value of SHLD. That means just a few people created $3 billion in market cap during just a few minutes work.

But who's watching anyway?

Some of you, I know, were too busy being entertained by some guy shouting and screaming, and waving his arms, and honking his horns, like some vaudeville act, all the time going pump, pump, pump on the SHLD balloon.

It really bothers me to see elderly people fall for these kinds of stock market antics. Younger people can learn from them, but when you get into your 60s and 70s and 80s, too often these share losses become permanent.

The point to all this is that traders who don't fully understand the reality of The Wall Street Game ought to stick to the obvious. Make trading decisions on the basis of what is widely known in the marketplace, and leave speculation to the "players".

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 8, 2005 08:31:04 AM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary

Discourse

Hi Bill,

Will you explain where/how you found the trade information?

Thanks

Posted by: David Tritsch at June 8, 2005 9:20 PM [link]