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June 3, 2005
Impact of U.S. Jobs Report Fri., June 3, 2005, 4:32 AM
Today the equity markets around the world will swing on the basis of a monthly U.S. Jobs Report. For securities traders, it's an important report, which I write a lot about. The April employment report was a good one; the March one was very bad. Today's May report is likely to be lukewarm, apparently (according to economists) around the 180,000 net new jobs level that the U.S. economy needs to sustain positive growth.
In the case of extreme reports, there is usually an impact on the retail sector, both the Consumer Discretionary or Cyclical Spending (GICS 25) and Consumer Staples Spending (GICS 30) stocks.
Since the March report (dated April 1) was so negative " just 110,000 net new jobs being reported, there was an immediate hit to retail consumer stocks.
Yesterday, in a very flat and uninspiring market, I noted that the U.S. stocks leader board was chock full of retailer industry groups. That could be a case of investor's speculating on a very positive employment report to come out this morning at 8:30am ET, or it could be that traders in the bullish camp were taking these stocks higher in hopes they would settle back to normal, rather than break down, in the event the employment report is nasty. Take your pick.
I no longer can continue writing this morning, and will now sign off. I am not thinking clearly.
I am only awake at this hour because I received a middle-of-the-night call with notice from the hospital that Dad has been moved to the Intensive Care Unit. In this case, ICU is a euphemism since the family has just given a "Do Not Resuscitate" order.
DNR, like ICU, are initials with grave meaning. The first time I was asked if it was my wishes to give these orders to medical staff, it was a different hospital, about 52 weeks ago. I had never heard the term at that point, and it stunned me. But that time, even though the Anaesthesiologist refused in the OR to permit the surgery to go on, Dad survived, and for six months recovered more than we could have hoped for.
Then came the downhill slide where, since about February, today's situation has been week-to-week, and day-to-day. At the same time, my Mom, who had been sharing the same room in the nursing home, was hit by a relapse of her colon cancer that had spread to her internal organs. We all thought she would be the first to pass.
Maybe two months ago, the two had to be separated into adjoining private rooms for the first time in over 60 years because together they would worry so much about the other. But Dad would still wheel himself in to Mom's room and sing her a love song that soon became the talk of the Lodge. I doubt very much he will be doing that again, or swimming daily, or cutting logs with a chainsaw, or riding his tractor-mower around their expansive country property as he had been doing until just 54 weeks ago.
And for Mom, we knew the prognosis was not good some eighteen months ago when surgeons had to remove so much of her colon, which came as a shock because she had been, like Dad, so healthy. Although the dreaded disease had spread by then, she refused chemotherapy and tried to live a normal life for as long as possible.
So, for the past many, many months, my life, and that of my brothers, has been turning from one parent to the next, and back. Today, perhaps, will be another like the others, or maybe finally the end is near.
I think it was Forbes Magazine, or maybe Barron's, that asked the question, why is industry pro Bill Cara giving away this information in the blog free. I have, as you now know, been doing it to honor my parents, to give to others what they have given to me, which is an understanding of how capital markets work.
You do understand, I hope, that the market mimics life.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 3, 2005 04:32:16 AM | Category: Economics
Discourse
Bill,
I pray for your family.
RC
Posted by: Rick C at June 3, 2005 10:03 AM [link]
Many regular readers will be thinking about and praying for you and your family in the coming days.
Posted by: Jack Miller at June 3, 2005 10:34 AM [link]
Bill,
Thinking of you and your personal sorrow. Remember: "...whether or not it is clear to you, the universe is, no doubt, unfolding as it should.
Therefore, be at peace........" (Max Ehrmann -Desiderata.)
Posted by: Jim Glendenning at June 3, 2005 11:51 AM [link]
I have only recently met you through your blogs. I sense that you are a "true" gentleman and I respect your honesty and your ability to express such with your audience which is a true sign of maturity and self acceptance. This characteristic is a fundamental cornerstone of successful trading. Consequently, I have integrated your site as a primary resource for my continued markets education.
I was touched at the love expressed by your recent mention of your family and particulalry your parents ill health. The strength and wisdom which your parents have guided their lives by and taught any who could learn including yourself will be their and your inspiration during this transitional time. Know that I and many wish you and your family the best and our thoughts are with you. Thanks for being who and where you are at this time.
Sincerely,DHL
Posted by: David at June 3, 2005 12:14 PM [link]
Bill --
The frailty of parents -- our generation has now to cope with it -- as our parents had to do.
It does not make it one whit less hard. -- Andras
Posted by: andras at June 3, 2005 2:50 PM [link]
Bill --
Your blogging has certainly taught a lot about investing in the "capital" markets. What you probably don't realize is how much you've taught about investing in the "relationship" markets. Your expressions of love and dedication toward your parents has been nothing short of inspirational while your sharing of sadness at their impending departure has been emotionally moving as well. Reading the descriptions of your feelings of longing and pain, provides an important reminder that capital markets can never replace the value of a deep and abiding relationship. Your example has provided a most valuable lesson that will be treasured long after the capital markets have closed. --Respectfully, GAC
Posted by: RlzGain at June 3, 2005 6:22 PM [link]
Bill,
You are wonderful - you know it and you share it! It is very educative to read your Blog everyday.
My prayers are with you and your family in these difficult times.
+Rick
Bill,
I am an Ethics nurse who is very interested in capital markets, so I read your refreshingly candid site daily. In addition to working with many, many families in your situation, I have been in your situation myself.
A very important thing for you to know is that, when authorizing DNR status, you are speaking for your father. It really is not your or the health care team's decision to make. Being asked if you want to make your Dad a DNR is a common mistake made by health professionals. We all (the doctors, nurses, family) must try together to figure out what your dad would say about continuing treatment or not. Since you know your dad best, you share what you know about how he would make the decision. Then everyone is ethically obliged to follow your father's wishes.
I have seen many family members struggle with feeling "guilty" for making a DNR decision, until it is explained to them that it's not their decision. They can only state what they think their loved one's thoughts and decisions might be.
The greatest thing you and your brothers can do for your father when he can't speak for himself is to speak for him, even if it is painful for you, even if it may not be the choice you personally would make for yourself.
Take comfort in the fact that you have done so.
Posted by: JB at June 4, 2005 11:48 AM [link]
Bill,
I think I speak for a lot of your readers when I say our thoughts are with you and your family in this difficult time.
Kindest regards,
Josh Silverman
Posted by: Josh Silverman at June 3, 2005 7:04 AM [link]