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June 6, 2005
Greenspan Speaks! Mon., June 6, 2005, 6:26 AM
At 9:00 PM EDT this evening, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan addresses the International Monetary Conference in Beijing, via satellite. This is expected to be a major speech.
The People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, as well as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of Japan Dep. Governor Toshiro Muto will also speak at this conference. Audience Q&A is expected.
Overnight forex trading in USD is weak against the Euro, Pound and Yen. Gold bullion is trading ~$426.80, which is up about $1.00. I believe further USD weakness and Gold strength will unfold.
Crude oil is up $0.22 to $55.25 early today.
U.S. bond yields are moderately up (bond prices down). U.S. equity futures are so far indicating a modest lower opening. The anxiety over U.S. Jobs weakness will continue this week, but the issue in my mind is how Americans can expect their domestic economy to thrive when there are so many problems elsewhere in the world economies, as well as at home.
This Friday, the U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. It will, of course, be a deficit. The consensus forecast for May is a deficit of -$55 billion, with estimates ranging from -$65.3 to -$40 billion. This issue is a much bigger problem for American jobs than the Chinese currency issue, in my view.
Asia/Pacific equities this morning, except for Japan, were up somewhat, and European equity trading this morning is mixed.
Interestingly, it is becoming apparent now, something I mentioned last week, that the French and Dutch rejection of the EU constitution was more about economic dissatisfaction in their own countries. That became apparent to me as I saw a direct correlation between the direction of the stock market and the polls.
I have no doubt, from all I have read, that the European Monetary Union will survive, and that eventually, after further compromise, most European nations will be a party to it.
The overriding issue facing investors today relates to global imbalances in currencies. I strongly believe this is not a China problem.
As international trade and commerce expands in an increasingly smaller world, there is a growing need for a global monetary system based on a gold standard, particularly now that we appear moving into a rising inflation cycle.
Otherwise, the world will be headed for economic wars (trade and trading) in the near future. All war destroys wealth, and should be avoided.
I recommend all traders look into the discussion of the gold standard at Wikipedia and become knowledgeable. There will soon be a lot of misinformation on this subject as it takes center stage.
Of note, Apple (NDQ: AAPL) has (apparently) made a strategic decision to move away from IBM semiconductor technology (NYSE: IBM) in favor of Intel (NDQ: INTC). This could be another misstep in the up-and-down history of Apple. For sure, traders will initially underestimate the enormous costs involved in this decision, choosing instead to focus on the if-come. Big mistake.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 6, 2005 06:25:07 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market , Economics , Forex , Gold
Discourse
Agree with jpm on AAPL. It could just as likely be a tablet or pocket device based on intel mobile chips. Or it could be Intel producing PowerPC chips. Let's wait until today's keynote to pronounce Apple's decision one way or the other.
Posted by: Brent at June 6, 2005 12:06 PM [link]
I'll be damned. Ok, I was wrong, Jobs is transitioning to a new chip. There was always this rumor that there were Apple boxes running on Intel chips, but I always thought that was tinfoil hat stuff. Still, it is a smart move on Jobs part and I'm sure they saw this day coming a long time ago.
Consider that the transition from OS 9 to OS 10 was extremely well handled. I've no doubt that Jobs will pull this one off as well. Maybe after Apple's cpu speed doubles a few more times, I'll have that Apple iPVR I've been waiting for after all. . .
Posted by: jpm at June 6, 2005 1:42 PM [link]

Until it comes out of Job's own mouth I doubt Apple'd go thru all the transition hassel of moving to another chip. Feels like jawboning to me with IBM else it's a total PR headfake and Jobs is going to announce an Apple PVR. . .
Posted by: jpm at June 6, 2005 10:23 AM [link]