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June 17, 2005
Golds, Oil, the 'art' of trading, Part 2, Fri., June 17, 2005, 7:12 AM
Its been a great month for me in respect of success that followed a headline article I wrote exactly one month ago, May 16: "Goldminers to recover tomorrow, May 16, 2005, 4:10 PM" A better summary was written on May 27, entitled "Gold and the ‘art' of trading, Fri., May 27, 2005, 11:48 AM".
Yes, the golds did recover; the boldness in putting my market call in headlines did work out for me.
But hasn't that artform become my trademark?
The nine goldminer stocks I profiled have been up +20.0 pct in four weeks.

You may have noted that I picked the precise bottom of the short-term price cycle in the TSX goldminer index (TSX: XGD) at the close on May 16, which I did at 4:10pm.

This morning the spot price of Gold bullion is up $0.50 to $438.40. The past few days have been strong. So too has the past month been a good one for the metals complex and crude oil.
But then, with respect to oil, you already knew that too, didn't you?
That's because I published a second headline article after the close on May 16: "Oils to recover tomorrow, Mon., May 16, 2005, 7:41 PM"
Yes, after I had already put one foot into my mouth with the headline article on gold at 4:10pm, and then watching Jim Cramer scream to his viewers that evening on Mad Money that he was fed up and finished with the oils, I figured that I might as well go both feet in.
Might have been my swan song. I could almost hear him saying it, "There but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford."
But it was actually what readers have come to expect of me: another piece of art.

Yes, that was another case of my picking the precise bottom of the price cycle for the oil stocks, and giving you the headline in advance.
I'm telling you this today, not because I do this too often for it to be a freak of nature, or because it is the one-month anniversary. No, I'm doing it because I have too much on my plate these days to watch the market, or trade the market, and I don't want to think you are counting on me to keep you fully informed.
I'm not copping out. I just have real work to do and real problems to deal with. I have to turn down the music, and stop the dance, until I get my priorities in order.
These are exciting times in markets. Sensitive traders ought to be able to do well.
But my senses have been dulled, as I've been saying in recent articles.
Tomorrow in my Week #24 in Review. I will address the strength I see in Europe, Canada, Brazil, and Asia/Pacific equity markets. I don't know if its going to continue, or if the strong early equity futures this morning in New York will become part of the picture.
I do know that to see the Big Picture, you have to stand back and enjoy the vista. And, I'm too close to trees these days to notice there is a forest out there.
The good news is that I'm quickly building a productivity system that will allow me to get back to analyzing some 5,000 charts a day. There are many days go by recently when I don't have time to look at more than 10 or 20.
And I know that doesn't cut it.
After all I have to be able to ‘walk the talk' -- or else do what some people at CNBC would probably like me to do, which is to keep my opinions to myself.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 17, 2005 06:55:29 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Bill,
First, let me say thank you for all your hard work. Since I found Trader Wizard/Bill Cara.com my capital markets learning curve has been on a vertical ascent. I would also like to wish you a very happy Father's Day. Thanks again for your efforts, and I look forward to my continued education.
Regards,
Jpatrick
Posted by: jpatrick
at
June 17, 2005 9:17 AM [link]