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June 28, 2005

Dow to bounce today, Tues., June 28, 2005, 5:31 AM

About one-third of the Dow stocks could have a good day today, up one to two percent or more, if my crystal ball is working. I'll give you the list in a moment, but first, here are my reasons:

テつキ These stocks are technically oversold after three days of significant decline
テつキ Europe and Asia-Pacific equity markets are broadly higher overnight and early this morning, and Dow futures are up +24 points at 5:30am
テつキ The USD is strong across the board
テつキ Crude oil contracts are likely to come off this morning, already down $0.42
テつキ The President is going on the PR offensive to shore up declining polls and waning enthusiasm for the War in Iraq that is going badly
テつキ Alan Greenspan somehow thinks the Fed is in good shape
テつキ GOOG was up yesterday +6.85 to $304.10 (+2.30 pct), and serious investors are figuring if an over-priced dot com can bounce in the face of a broad market decline, then what's so bad about solid Dow companies (I call it the Jerry Springer Effect)
テつキ Boeing (NYSE: BA) was up 2 pct in the final hour yesterday as traders got to picture the prospects of the Commander-in-Chief rallying the cheering troops at Ft. Bragg tonight
テつキ I could go on, but this will be a brief rally, so why bother.

The ten Dow stocks going to move up at least one pct this morning, and maybe two pct today, are:
テつキ Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (in spite of the China Syndrome)
テつキ American Express (NYSE: AXP)
テつキ Dupont (NYSE: DD)
テつキ Disney (NYSE: DIS)
テつキ General Electric (NYSE: GE)
テつキ McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) (in spite of the Mad Cow scare)
テつキ Altria (NYSE: MO)
テつキ Merck (NYSE: MRK) (in spite of possible Vioxx deceit)
テつキ Procter & Gamble(NYSE: PG)
テつキ United Technologies (NYSE: UTX)

And I'll throw in Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) because if MRK can manage a dead cat bounce today in the face of all its problems, then a much healthier PFE can manage to get itself up off the floor as well.

I could go on, but actually my wife and I are celebrating 36 years of marriage today, and we've planned a mini-vacation. We've booked into a downtown Toronto hotel where we're going to play tourist for the day, including afternoon cruise of the islands.

So, if I'm wrong about a brief rally in these Dow stocks, I'll have to return tomorrow and face your music. But, for today at least, I'm looking forward to getting away from the database work I've been doing in preparation for new reports to be published on this website and blog.

I'll see you tomorrow, where I will try to get back to the "Focus" of the week. If I'm unable to, because of all the other matters on my mind, I'll extend this week's focus topic into next week.

Have a good day.


PS, It's just past noon and I have to leave for the next 24 hours (at least), so just to say I lived up to my commitment to give you ten Dow stocks that would be up one percent this morning, here is the chart:

207b005.jpg


All ten Dow stocks are up, and the average increase is 0.98 pct. That close enough for me.

BTW, the Dow is up 0.70 pct on the morning, which means the 20 I said would not do so well, were either down or up on average less than 0.70 pct.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 28, 2005 05:31:04 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market