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June 7, 2005
Cavanaugh's E-Mini commentary, Tue., June 7, 2005, 9:30 AM
I will be away for the day but I thought I would re-produce reader Mike Cavanaugh's E-Mini Report for today. He points to the current Japanese candlestick "doji", which appears to indicate significant bullishness today. Equity futures are strong, as well.
Written by Michael Cavanaugh
Tuesday, 07 June 2005
Daily Pivot Points:
R3- 1207.25
R2- 1203.25
R1- 1200.75
PP- 1196.75
S1- 1194.25
S2- 1190.25
S3- 1187.75
The Fundamentals: - Low volume and lack of fundamental data provided little conviction in yesterday's trade. The market traded lower in the morning and was able to creep back up to the unchanged area in the afternoon to close neutral at the unchanged point. - there may have been a bit of nervousness as Fed Chairman Greenspan spoke last night to a panel of Chinese banking chairman, and he also testifies before the Joint Economic committee on thursday.
The Reports:
- Weekly ICSC-UBS Chain Store S 6:45
- Johnson Redbook Retail Sales 8:00
-Consumer Installment Credit 2:00
The Technicals:
- The short-term and intermediate trends are both higher. A close above 1198.00 keeps both of the trends moving higher. A close below 1193.00 moves the short-term trend to the downside, with a close below 1186.25 moving the intermediate trend to the downside.
- I circled two points on the chart this morning. These points are known in japanese candlestick charting as "doji's". The last one occured a little over a week ago and you can see what action followed.
The long and the short of it: The range in the market has been tight and it seems that the 1195-1205 area is where the market has somewhat settled in. Last weeks key economic reports did little to catalyze in either direction and we find ourselves sitting right around the same level, before all the data came out last week.
Technically the market still looks bullish as we have held onto support every test in the recent trading sessions. Once again the market seems poised to break out to the upside, but the recent headfake rallies have me a bit confidence shaken to throw my hands up and get long.
Today I look to be a seller at the R3 1207.25 area, and I will look to be a buyer at the PP1196.75 level.
Daily Trade Set-ups:
SHORT SIDE ENTRY:
S 1 ESM5 1207.25
B 1 ESM5 1211.25 PROTECTIVE STOP)
B 1 ESM5 1199.25 PROFIT OBJECTIVE)
LONG SIDE ENTRY:
B 1 ESM5 1196.75
S 1 ESM5 1192.75(PROTECTIVE STOP)
S 1 ESM5 1204.75(PROFIT OBJECTIVE)
Your future in Futures!
Michael A. Cavanaugh
My Futures Online
1-888-942-7829 (toll free)1-312-726-0500 (direct)
mike@fcillc.com
www.myfuturesonline.com
Important disclaimer: Futures trading involves risk of loss; only risk capital should be used when trading futures. In no way does this e-mail represent a solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures, this e-mail is for informational and educational purposes only. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
I'll return late today. Let me know what you think of Mike's report. I'm trying to determine more of what my readers want to see in my daily chronicles.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 7, 2005 09:30:56 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Despite Michael Cavanaugh obviously knowing his business about trading futures, I believe futures related commentary accompanied by candlestick technical analysis would leave anyone except the most experienced futures trader and candlestick technician confused in your absence. I recommend "guest" commentary to be consistent with your style of technical analysis, Bill. You very effectively use MACD, Stochastics, Support and Resistance levels, accompanied by overall capital markets overview that is quite understandable. Bill, you also differ from the vast majority of capital market commentators in that you make more focused directional calls as opposed to the majority of commentators who typically "hedge" their opinions to the upside and downside in the same paragraph such that they are minimally exposed and hopefully never "wrong". When the average investor considers committing their hard earned capital to the market they look to professionals to either confirm, deny or elaborate on their own view of the markets. Therefore, some courage of conviction is expected. So Bill, you'll do well to assure your technique of analysis is well defined to your audience and that guest commentators can speak the same language in your absence. All the best, /GAC
Posted by: RlzGain at June 7, 2005 5:06 PM [link]