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June 17, 2005

Building out this website, Fri., June 17, 2005, 2:08 PM

I'm building a database that will allow me to pull up charts in groups, and do special studies like Value equities, Bonds, etc, and with a Focus list that matches what the readers want from me (rather than what "I" want from me), I think all readers will find the blog becomes more interesting.

Blogging (for free at least) is mostly a matter of being organized to efficiently use the minutes available. When I have to start from scratch every day, I get lazy and just react to what I see on TV (which drives my wife nuts by the way), and then I start taking shots at THs (some of them admittedly unjustified).

With respect to interesting topics I have received from readers, they range from having to do with living and trading as an ex-pat, sometimes in far-away places where the information tools are limited, to dealing with the domestic real estate and mortgage market.

I do think the real estate cycle is an important one for me to write about because it affects all of us one way or another. I recently read some reports that showed that the phenomenon in the USA re residential real estate is also going on all around the world.

I find that to be interesting because a home is an equity that produces (little to) no wealth. Unless capital is employed as a wealth creator, there is (little to) no return on that capital. That's inflation. But the huge debts created to build the real estate still need to be serviced. Money may be cheap, but it's not free. At a point, there could be a run of debt failures, which is deflationary.

Another topic many of you want me to regularly focus on is the implication of a changing yield curve.

As the yield curve flattens, that's an indication that real wealth is not being created as quickly as usual, and as needed to provide the jobs and disposable income needed to service our growing personal debt.

So, because of the current real estate phenomenon, there is going to be a serious financial system problem down the line (i) if the yield curve stays too flat too long, or (ii) it rises across the curve too quickly.

The first case is deflation, and the second is inflation. Either way, there would be a financial crisis ensuing, and gold would be the preferred asset to hold. While I already write a lot about gold, many of you want that to be a quarterly "focus".

As to today's global issues, I don't think anybody knows how this is going to play out in capital markets. It could be that the global currencies get balanced out properly and the global economy grows at a healthy and steady rate, so that the extreme conditions do not end up causing problems.

More than one reader has referred to the market as a casino. As I see it, this is really the "casino effect" caused by irresponsible media, which includes so-called investment newsletters, promoters of penny stock, overreaching CEO's and advertiser-driven TV like CNBC. I for one find that the owners of capital see the market as a serious place, and are becoming more sophisticated in its ways. As they do, and see the risks involved, many bow out.

The use of algorithmic trading models is interesting to some of you because you tend to see that as a non-leveling of the playing field. It is true that programmed trading now drives the majority of equities trading in New York, and most of it is done by hedge funds; but really, are these hedge funds doing any better at beating the market indexes than the mutual funds? Anyway, this will be a "focus" topic in the future.

As to why Mom & Pop has decided to avoid the capital markets in favor of real estate, which is of interest to many of you, I think the public will return to the equity market when they see that (i) real estate prices are not going (much) higher (which means their risk is going to grow), and (ii) PE multiples of stocks return to the long-term mean (i.e., an average of inflation-disinflation conditions, over many years).

Today's PE multiples are generally not out of line, in my view, except they reflect the disinflationary 90's, and not the higher inflation numbers of the past couple years, or those likely to unfold.

So, without a pullback in equity markets (i.e., a bearish phase), needed to pull the extensive cash into the equity market (at the cycle bottom and on the rebound), instead of sitting on the sidelines, the equity market will likely sidetrack. I don't like the present conditions because they represent difficult trading conditions to Mom & Pop.

So, on Sunday I'll publish a list of some 50 "Focus" topics. You can then let me know the order you'd like to see me write about them, given that I can't do them all every week. In fact, I intend to try one or two only every week. Some I will revisit every quarter, and some every six months or less.

But, I'll set up and post a schedule so that you can get your questions and comments ready.

Judging from the responses so far, I'd say many of you are up to it.

BTW, I cut off the Trackback feature, which saves me several minutes a day cleaning up Trackback spam.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 17, 2005 02:09:41 PM | Category: Cara re: Cara

Discourse

Great news Bill. This new system sounds very promsing!

-Ben Green

Posted by: Soulek1 at June 17, 2005 11:22 PM [link]