« Silver moon? Tues., June 28, 2005, 11:23 AM | Main | Follow-up to "Silver Moon?" Blog, Jun-28-05 Wed., June 29, 2005, 6:23 PM »

June 29, 2005

Art of trading Jun-28-05, Wed., June 29, 2005, 2:29 PM

On June 28, at 5:31am, I was up early preparing to head out on a mini-vacation. Feeling guilty, I decided to give my readers a heads-up the Dow 30 would bounce, and I picked ten Dow stocks that would be "up from one to two percent on the day". That was a ballsy thing to do (meaning "courageous" or "wicked", depending on your perspective I suppose).

In my former life as the Trader Wizard, too many would call me wicked for being so bold, so I went ahead and changed my name to Bill Cara, so now you can call me what you want. As the joke goes, "just call".

I care about two things:
1. Being right (based on analysis), and
2. Being more right than the next guy (also based on analysis).

Sure enough, yesterday was proof (yet again) that I am mostly right (and more right).

The Dow did bounce (+1.12 pct), and my ten Dow stocks were up on the day +1.27 pct, on average. In fact, using the highs of the day, my ten picks in the Dow were up +1.48 pct, on average.

Not only did I correctly forecast a rising Dow, and ten outperforming Dow stocks, and the range of price gain for the day, but I also told readers that the Dow rally would go up on the day for the reasons I gave, and that it would be a brief rally. Today the Dow has been soft all day, presently down "25 points.

I also told you in a subsequent article on Silver stocks how I do the things I do, and that you too can do the same things if you make the commitment. You see, it's important to me that everybody on earth has an equal chance. I believe in social equity.

Yesterday my wife and I spent much of the day celebrating our wedding anniversary number 36 (and I am truly not counting, because I've been blessed and don't want my good fortune to run out).

We did things that the huge majority of the world would never be able to do. If you can afford it, I encourage it, maybe not too frequently, but on special occasions.

First we checked in to The Chairman's Suite at the Starwood Westin Toronto Harbour Castle Hotel (dining room, living room, bedroom and three baths, at the corner of the penthouse floor). Then we went shopping for clothes at Tilleys Endurables at Harbourfront (served by Paul). Then to a private cruise of Toronto Islands on the 23-passenger 1951 45-foot cruise boat, MV New Beginnings (where Capt. Matt and Firstmate Luke of Toronto Tours hosted my wife and I). Later we enjoyed dinner at Mike O'Connor's terrific Joe Badali's Italian Restaurant Bar (served by Tony), across from the Skydome in the heart of the entertainment district " all within walking distance of the hotel. Then this morning we enjoyed breakfast served in our private dining room.

This was living large. I don't suppose anybody could do it better: great city, great hotel, great shopping, great boat tour, and great restaurant. A fabulous 24 hours.

My only regret is that the cost of a single good day like this is in the range of 17.4 times the average annual income of the world's 20 poorest countries. And the majority of people in those countries live far below the average income there!

Chad, Moldova, Liberia, Angola, Mozambique, Burundi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Comoros, Malawi,;the list of countries in Africa where more than 50 pct of the people are in abject poverty seems to have no end.

So, yes, I can take the day off, have a wonderful day with my wife, and still beat the brightest minds backed up by the biggest computers on Wall Street.

But, without you, I can't do much for the people in this world who most need help.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 29, 2005 01:01:45 PM | Category: Cara re: Cara

Discourse