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May 17, 2005
Tonight's headlines yesterday, Tues., May 17, 2005, 5:31 PM
Where else can you read tonight's headlines yesterday? You got it!
Yesterday, right at or after the close, I wrote three articles in which I stuck out my neck so far I'll bet you were surprised.
Today's results are in:
Oils= 15 of 15 up; Average gain today = 1.63 pct
Golds= 9 out of 9 up: Average gain today = 2.52 pct
Homebuilders= 10 out of 10 up: Average gain today = 0.66 pct
Total= 34 out of 34 up: Average gain today = 1.58 pct
Ka-ching!
Actually, Zasdad doesn't like it when I do that. Well, I no longer care. Having been invited to the club by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow at 2:15pm ET today, I am now a "made guy". :-)
Let's review, just for the record. Besides, it makes me feel good.
Case study #1
Oils to recover tomorrow, Mon., May 16, 2005, 7:41 PM
So just in case you missed this, JJ Cramer says he's no longer going to recommend Oils on his popular CNBC show called MadMoney. I'd say he's eleven weeks too late, but who's counting. It's only USD right? Well I'll take the other side of that trade, Mr. Mad Money. You heard me right; I'm throwing down the gauntlet. And JJC, if you deny telling your legion of followers tonight (about 6:30 pm ET) that you have given up on the oils, then I'll pull the transcripts. You said it; I heard it.
Just to get this straight, on Monday May 16, JJC is selling the Oils, and I'm buying. To be specific: BC is calling a Buy on the Oils (charts shown below, which are two stocks in each group I have been pointing you to for eleven weeks) for Intra-Month Traders (i.e., good for less than 18 trading sessions, with a profit objective of 5 pct or more). Got it?
Here is today's result:

Case study #2
Goldminers to recover tomorrow, Mon., May 16, 2005, 4:10 PM
In my sights at the end of the day were the senior goldminers. Tomorrow morning (toes and fingers crossed), I'm hoping to see another big PPI, followed by a big CPI number on Wednesday. If that doesn't pull the USD down, and gold up, I'm going on vacation.
Daily data charts show an oversold condition on the RSI:

On ;Friday morning, I'll review the Hourly data charts of the goldminers to see if I've still got the magic touch. I expect that gold will recover Tuesday, and I'll be feeling golden Friday.
Here is today's result:

Case study #3
Homebuilders bullish, for now, Monday, May 16, 2005, 3:44 PM
You can see that the Construction Services (i.e., homebuilders) are one of the leaders. I warned readers on the weekend that might happen.
Here is what I wrote on Saturday: "As I did last week, and the week before, let me state: Before I start into my observations and analysis of the equity market sectors, I want to say that I continue to believe there is more downside to come in equity prices across all sectors. But there may be a trade before the bear continues to sink in its claws;.
This may be the only time in maybe 30 years I can recall that homebuilding growth continued unabated as mortgage rates rose. So for the homebuilders that cater to the very upscale market, there may be some very short-term trades on the long side, putting a smile on Larry Kudlow's face, but historical market correlations cannot be dismissed for long.
So, the homebuilders to the rich can build higher walls to their gated communities, and two golf courses instead of one, and the home prices can go from two million to three, for a while. But not forever, and when the downside hits, it can be a long slide."
What happened today to the homebuilders today?
All of them were up 3 to 4 pct. But, let's see what happens Thursday and Friday. That's when I close the trade.
Here is today's result:

All kidding aside; I think you have to challenge yourself " put yourself out there without fear of failure. Too many people in this world want to take the easy way out. They accept the lead of other people; then have to pay the piper.
My way is a lot more fun.
Remember, we're only here on this earth once, and it's sometimes not a long time. Go for it!
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 17, 2005 05:13:07 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
