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May 23, 2005
The importance of psychology in markets, Mon., May 23, 2005, 11:16 AM
The basis of successful capital markets trading is to "Know Thyself", so psychology clearly plays a key role in one's analysis and decision-making.
In my case, the psychodynamic approach ("free association thinking"), in which while trading and blogging I listen to background music of popular classical music (Bocelli, Brightman et al) or very soft rock (Groban, Dion et al), is just as important as the cognitive approach.
The quiet objective study of money flows, framed within a cause-and-effect paradigm, is the pull. On the other hand, cognitivism is the push.
You see, I also believe the market is inherently computable, based on a multiplicity of rules. I hope so because I am presently working on a sophisticated algorithmic trading model.
But I'm wondering if the algorithmic trading approach can work without adding the psychodynamic element. And I wonder if that is programmable.
In this regard, I often talk about the programmed algorithms as being like the engineering of a Formula One racecar, and the racecar driver's mental performance as the differentiator between winning and losing.
This weekend I heard a racecar driver saying that he had the right car under him, but he just couldn't get into a winning rhythm.
Beyond my readings in psychology in first and second year college studies, some 40 years ago, I have no formal background in this field, and I have never explored the rationale of why I do what I do when trading capital markets.
Not to make a joke of it, I do have a difficult time trying to explain that I find trading the market like a dance.
Occasionally I think about it. For example a couple days ago a reader by the name of JP Willis asked if I had an ingrained bias against France. That surprised me because I continuously rail against the clear bias in that way by CNBC Squawk Box host Mark Haines.
I thought I was above such pettiness, but maybe not.
Capital markets and social equity is what this blog is all about, but maybe it should also be about the importance of psychology.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 23, 2005 11:16:24 AM | Category: Cara re: Cara
Discourse
I so much believe in the need to keep in balance that I wrote this piece on psychology right after I published the earlier piece on sociology in which I had a gut feeling readers were going to react negatively. Then immediately after uploading this article, I checked the comments section at MT Publisher to see that reaction had started to come in on the earlier one. I had no knowledge that many people have been questioning the accuracy of the German 'prostitute' story published by The Telegraph UK, but my sixth sense was telling me I might have overdone it. I have never felt the need to visit a shrink, although a few of them have felt the need to visit me. Maybe I ought to spend more time thinking about them, and their work in this field.
Posted by: Bill Cara at May 23, 2005 1:58 PM [link]

Bill-
If you ever want a software partner in this, let me know!
Thanks-
Mike W.
Posted by: Mike Wilmot at May 23, 2005 1:00 PM [link]