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May 16, 2005
Oils to recover tomorrow, Mon., May 16, 2005, 7:41 PM
So just in case you missed this, JJ Cramer says he's no longer going to recommend Oils on his popular CNBC show called MadMoney. I'd say he's eleven weeks too late, but who's counting. It's only USD right?
Well I'll take the other side of that trade, Mr. Mad Money.
You heard me right; I'm throwing down the gauntlet. And JJC, if you deny telling your legion of followers tonight (about 6:30 pm ET) that you have given up on the oils, then I'll pull the transcripts. You said it; I heard it.
Just to get this straight, on Monday May 16, JJC is selling the Oils, and I'm buying.
To be specific: BC is calling a Buy on the Oils (charts shown below, which are two stocks in each group I have been pointing you to for eleven weeks) for Intra-Month Traders (i.e., good for less than 18 trading sessions, with a profit objective of 5 pct or more).
Got it?
For eleven weeks now I have been saying that one of the key drivers that pull down equity prices is the high cost of Crude Oil. I have been saying the Oils were leading the equity market down.
To wit: "Until Crude Oil (of the Light Sweet variety) hits the $45 mark, I think it is still worthwhile to watch the Oil sector because (i) these stocks remain market leaders, and (ii) crude oil prices have a major impact on corporate earnings, and market risks, across the board.
Bear in mind of course what I noted earlier about Exxon, and that I called the cycle top for the Oils in my Week #8 in Review " and laughed at the bulls all the way down.
10101010 Oil & Gas Drilling Drilling contractors or owners of drilling rigs that contract their services for drilling wells.
10101020 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Equipment manufacturers, including drilling rigs and equipment, and providers of supplies and services to companies that drill, evaluate and complete oil & gas wells.
10102010 Integrated Oil & Gas Integrated oil companies engaged in the exploration & production of oil and gas, as well as at least one other significant activity in either refining, marketing and transportation, or chemicals.
10102010 additional list.
10102020 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Companies engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas not classified elsewhere.
10102020 additional list.
10102030 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Companies engaged in the refining and marketing of oil, gas and/or refined products not classified in the Integrated Oil & Gas or Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Sub-Industries.
10102040 Oil & Gas Storage & Transport Companies in storage and/or transportation of oil, gas and/or refined products. Includes diversified midstream natural gas companies facing competitive markets, oil and refined product pipelines, coal slurry pipelines and oil & gas shipping companies."
Wake me up in the morning to tell me I never made this call. ;-) I'll probably be sleeping in after getting the PPI news at 8:30 am ET.
Actually, I think there could be a Light Sweet Crude bounce this week, as I believe the $48.80 cycle low (End of Day Continuous contract) is going to hold. That ought to take Crude Oil up to say $51.50 after the PPI and CPI data is released, which in turn ought to pump up the over-sold oil stocks.
JJC has size friends on the Street, you know, who will be miffed I made this call. But, not even JJC's friends can help him from putting that 5 pct in my pocket in the next few weeks.
Sorry Jim, but my readers made me do it.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 16, 2005 07:42:22 PM | Category: 10 Energy
Discourse
Josh, I saw that immediately after writing it, but I've been running non-stop =
on other ("real") work, and haven't had chance to correct it. Sorry.
Thanks for pointing it out. Keep up the vigilance, pls. /Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at May 17, 2005 10:10 AM [link]
Bill,
When you refer to the $48.80 cycle low holding, what product are you talking about? For WTI crude futures (near month) we have broken that price on a daily closing basis at least twice and are currently trading around $48.50. Intraday, we have seen prices drop below $48.
Thanks,
Josh Silverman
Posted by: Josh Silverman at May 17, 2005 8:17 AM [link]