Well, I don't want to get into names and personalities here (my new blog rules!), but you can review that article if you wish (which I suppose is ok, since I'm in a transition period).

The upshot is that this best-selling author and well-known trader said he was finished recommending the oils, and I responded with the headline article: Oils to recover tomorrow, Mon., May 16, 2005, 7:41 PM

Here's the text of that blog:

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So just in case you missed this, Mr X says he's no longer going to recommend Oils on his popular CNBC show. I'd say he's eleven weeks too late, but who's counting. It's only USD right? Well I'll take the other side of that trade, Mr. X. You heard me right; I'm throwing down the gauntlet. And Mr X, if you deny telling your legion of followers tonight (about 6:30 pm ET) that you have given up on the oils, then I'll pull the transcripts. You said it; I heard it.

Just to get this straight, on Monday May 16, Mr X is selling the Oils, and I'm buying. To be specific: BC is calling a Buy on the Oils (charts shown below, which are two stocks in each group I have been pointing you to for eleven weeks) for Intra-Month Traders (i.e., good for less than 18 trading sessions, with a profit objective of 5 pct or more). Got it?

Wake me up in the morning to tell me I never made this call. ;-) I'll probably be sleeping in after getting the PPI news at 8:30 am ET. Actually, I think there could be a Light Sweet Crude bounce this week, as I believe the $48.80 (actually I meant the $48.05 low that day as a reader pointed out) cycle low (End of Day Continuous contract) is going to hold. That ought to take Crude Oil up to say $51.50 after the PPI and CPI data is released, which in turn ought to pump up the over-sold oil stocks.

Mr X has size friends on the Street, you know, who will be miffed I made this call. But, not even Mr X's friends can help him from putting that 5 pct in my pocket in the next few weeks. Sorry Mr X, but my readers made me do it.

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That was a ballsy call. But, as the saying goes, ‘the proof is in the pudding'. Let's see the proof.

Rather than go into all the oil stocks and track prices etc, let me just show you the Daily close of the four Oil stock ETF's during this period, and leading up to it. (Note the Yahoo tables for today's trading will be updated in a couple hours, but all were up again today.)

Look at the closing price for May 16, and compare it to the prior week's trading. Then look at yesterday's close, May 25, which is exactly 7 trading sessions later.

You will note that Mr. X picked the absolute cycle low to quit on the Oils, and I picked that day to get in. Ka-ching!

Insert price table for AMEX: XLE Select Sector Spider " Energy

Insert price table for AMEX: IYE Ishares Dow Jones U.S. Energy

Insert price table for AMEX: VDE Vanguard Energy Vipers

Insert price table for AMEX: IXC Ishares S&P Global Energy Sector

Now calculate the results, and average them, or if you wish, pick the worst one. No matter, because these ETFs represent a cross-section of the oil stocks; and I was merely making a point in my May 16 article. Now I want you to see that I was dead right, and Mr X was dead wrong.

You may recall (about the same time), I did the same for the Homebuilders and the Goldminers, when I gave you the headlines several days in advance.

I am going to continue proving these trading principles to you until you finally get the message that listening to people on TV is bad for your wealth, and maybe your health. Those people don't make you money, at least not as advertised.

But the bigger point I am making is that I am doing this free of charge, with zero income from advertisers or employers or friends " which is to say, I have no ax to grind.

I simply want you to learn how to trade, and then to trade by yourself, with your own capital, in the privacy of your own situation. That would be a great legacy to leave to people.

So, here are the results after eight trading sessions:

XLE +6.9378 pct

IYE +7.1078 pct

VDE +7.6615 pct

IXC +5.5127 pct

Average of all four ETFs for Energy over the past eight trading sessions = +6.805 pct

You see; I didn't need 18 trading sessions to make my 5 pct return. This is the result after eight sessions. Actually, the results were almost as good after seven trading days.

Now, in the article, I also wrote that the cycle low EOD price that week of the continuous contract for Crude Oil ($WTIC at StockCharts) would likely hold at the $48 level, and move back up to $51.50 for the reasons I gave.

So here is the $WTIC chart at StockCharts:

Please note that the high price today for Crude Oil (Light Sweet Crude) was $51.70, closing $51.01. So my call was right on the mark there as well.

I hope you find my work valuable, and that you will learn from it. Nothing would be more pleasing to me.

What I will not do, however, is reply to mail from readers who give me a list of stocks and ask for my recommendation. To do so would be precisely against the reasons why I blog. My objective is to have you trade on your own.