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May 13, 2005
Commodity sell-off, Fri., May 13, 2005, 3:18 PM
A look at the winner/loser board on a day that may possibly turn out to be yet another triple-digit sell-off in the Dow Industrials, shows that many of the tech sector (GICS sector 45) sub-industry groups are doing well. Commodity-sensitive stocks are getting hammered once again.

What is happening here, I believe, is that traders are concerned that right after the supposedly impending revaluation of the yuan by the Bank of China, there will be an economic slowdown in China caused by the higher currency price.
That means less demand for natural resources and processed commodities like crude oil, steel, copper, and so forth. And hence the big hit to stocks in the Basic Materials sector (GICS sector 15).
That very well may be the economic landscape that unfolds in China, which if true would depress most of the Basic Materials sector. Even the prospects of lower commodity prices are pushing up the price of the USD.
But here's the key point. I am not changing my forecast for gold " even though it is a component of the Basic Materials sector. The reason is that if, as and when the yuan is revalued, the USD is almost certainly headed lower (for a time), and that will push up gold prices, probably substantially (for a time).
I think now is the right time to be looking at buying (not selling) gold stocks and options. Long options; not ones shorter than six months.
Nobody knows the timing of a yuan revaluation. It is likely to happen because the PRC authorities, including the governor of the Bank of China have acknowledged that. If only he would tell us when.
But, Zhou Xiaochuan doesn't have to tell me to buy or sell gold; he's already signalled what to do. I'm buying.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 13, 2005 03:22:13 PM | Category: 15 Materials , China , Forex
Discourse
Hey Bill
Been checking in from time to time...
Was just curious what your plans were for the Portfolio and Trades tabs you have defined.
We continue to send our prayers and positive energy to you and your parents.
DJ
Posted by: enso
at
May 14, 2005 12:46 PM [link]

Mr. Cara,
If the chinese revalue the yuan wouldnt their ability to purchase commodities abroad increase by the amount of the revaluation? Why would that cap expansion in their country? It might hurt exports but that assumes the usa can find goods to import elsewhere since we dont manufacture much.
Posted by: tom at May 13, 2005 4:37 PM [link]