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April 27, 2005
Yuan popular renminbi, Wed., April 27, 2005, 6:10 AM
The first headline I noted this morning was the one where Merrill Lynch believes the China Renminbi (yuan) will appreciate 10 pct this year. For more than 10 years the People's Bank of China has intervened in the market to hold the yuan value steady, at just more than eight to the U.S. dollar.
I decided to check to see what others are thinking, and discovered that the forecasts are all over the board.
Well-known Hong Kong currency analyst Marc Faber said that "It is clear that over time the Asian countries will kind of de-peg from the U.S. dollar. Now, the big question in the case of China is at what level would you be comfortable of having the renminbi against the dollar? I think the renminbi could appreciate by 90 percent."
Researcher Morris Goldstein, of Washington's Institute for International Economics, believes China's currency is at least 20 percent undervalued against the USD.
So it appears to be unanimous that China's currency is significantly undervalued because of the country's huge and growing trade surplus. The issue is by how much, and when.
Clearly nobody knows by how much.
As to when China intends to finally reform its currency regime, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on April 23 that mounting international pressure could accelerate China's plans, which has started speculation on that score as well.
Wei Benhua, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, was quoted (Xinhua) as saying China won't change the yuan's value in the "short term" because the banking industry is weak and its foreign-exchange market is not mature enough. He spoke this week to reporters at the Boao Forum in China's southern province of Hainan.
So, unless your name is Zhou Xiaochuan, you also don't know when this change will occur.
As my guess is as good as any in the office pool, I'm sticking to calling for a re-peg to a basket of twelve currencies, which will start off at ten yuan to the USD (25 pct increase in value), and the official decision will be made in mid-to-late September.
Who really knows? But we all know it's yuan popular Renminbi.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 27, 2005 06:10:04 AM | Category: Forex
Discourse
"However, there is currently no credible evidence that the renminbi is significantly undervalued, and an adjustment in its exchange rate at this time is neither warranted nor in the best interests of China or global economic stability." - Lawrence Lau and Joseph Stiglitz
from the FT ($$) http://news.ft.com/cms/s/91c0f604-b4eb-11d9-8df4-00000e2511c8.html
no mention in your analysis of the possibility the yuan will fall. Due to the NPL issue in their rotten to the core banking system.
And this IS one of the IRONIC possible outcomes which has been artculated by commentators more informed and less contrarian than I!
Posted by: jpwillis at April 27, 2005 8:20 AM [link]