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April 1, 2005
U.S. Jobs Report! April 1, 2005 9:07 AM
On the first Friday of each month, which is today (and today's was a beauty!), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues what is called the Non-Farms Payroll Employment Report, or Jobs Report for short. The description at Yahoo Finance is just four paragraphs long.
The free Briefing.com review will take a few minutes more to read, but I assure you that once you do this a couple times for each report, you'll be an expert.
Briefing.com offers an outstanding review of all key U.S. economic reports. Rather than listen to the TH spin on these reports, or the varied interpretations by business writers, I recommend you try to spend a few minutes reading the objective background and analysis offered by Briefing.com. You'll be well served.
If you review this two-pages of material, and the line item detail of the reported data, you will be surprised, if not shocked, at the amount of spin you see coming at you from the TH's you usually watch to get your "information" on capital markets.
So this morning, if you happened to be watching CNBC discussing the U.S. March Jobs Report, for example, but you came armed with the two pages of data I listed above plus the actual line item report from the BLS, then you enjoyed a hearty chuckle.
But this is serious stuff.
Jobs are needed and greater disposable income is necessary to push economic growth, so that the 3-month-30-year U.S. Treasury Yield Spread can get back to a healthy 300 bp from its present levels in the 212-215 range.
I continue to say that there is a possibility (sometime in 2005) that the U.S. economy could flat-line or even (a long shot) could go negative. In such a case, "the loss of personal wealth would be too horrible to contemplate", which I wrote a month or two ago.
I hear people express their concerns, but all day, every day, there are TH's from prominent broker-dealers who join CNBC personalities, such as Larry Kudlow, to blow smoke that the U.S. economy is healthier than it is.
I'm not a doomsday proponent; but I do not see any rationale for such bliss. I do very much believe that stock market prices and real estate prices in the U.S. have had a lot to do with the increase of jobs in the U.S. in the past year, most of which are part-time jobs.
These jobs, unlike solid manufacturing jobs, can disappear in a heart-beat, but the Wall Streeters do not want to tell you that.
Moreover, I find it amazing that Wall Streeters can rave about the U.S. economy when Europe, Canada and Japan have been struggling in recent quarters, and face a significant prospect of going recessive.
So, we all hope for an increase in non-farm payrolls of 175,000 or more, which is the minimum needed to sustain a healthy U.S. economy. The consensus estimate was well over 200,000 with significant growth in manufacturing for the first time in seven months. But, now the numbers are just 110,000, with a further cutback of 9,000 manufacturing jobs, so all of us ought to become very concerned.

In the entire U.S. during the month of March, there were just 24,000 new construction jobs plus 86,000 new retail service jobs and 9,000 new government jobs, which with the reduction of 9,000 manufacturing jobs, resulted in an increase of 110,000 in total.
This is not even close enough for Kudlow to try to spin a good story. And isn't that saying something?
Here's an example of the state of my concern. Last evening Kudlow hosted a couple leading economists on his CNBC show. One was the head U.S. economist for J.P. Morgan (I think), who said (and I paraphrase), "The economy has been screaming hot in spite of $55 oil, and that didn't stop it, so why worry about oil going higher (as per yesterday's Goldman Sachs report)?"
Well, when did real-time oil prices start to rally above $50 (not until the 4Q04!!), and are not the 4Q04 economic data lagging the real case? So, what, pray tell, is in the man's head to make such a remark?
Again, I say, "put on the clown suit."
Rising levels of commodity prices, goods and services prices and interest rates are all having an impact on the economy. Rising interest rates and Fed tightening are having a negative impact on equity prices.
But all through the piece, people like Kudlow refuse to stop blowing the same smoke, and that presents a dilemma. At what point do you refuse being entertained and start taking the precautions necessary to protect wealth?
Now, can anyone tell me why Dow futures are up 50 points in pre-market trading? Or why the USD would be up v. the Euro now?
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 1, 2005 09:06:11 AM | Category: Economics
