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April 27, 2005
U.S. econ data depressing, Wed., April 27, 2005, 9:04 AM
March durable goods orders have been reported as being down 2.8 pct. CNBC's Rick Santelli calls it "ice cold".
The consensus forecast for March 2005 was +0.3 percent, with a range from "2.0 to +1.5 percent. So, the actual decline of minus 2.8 pct was right off the chart.
In February, new orders for durable goods rose 0.5 pct, after falling in January. Several key components (fabricated metals, machinery, electrical equipment) posted declines last month.
U.S. March durable goods orders down 2.8%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch 8:32 AM ET April 27, 2005
"U.S. orders for durable goods declined 2.8% in March, the largest drop since September 2002, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting orders to rise 0.3%. This is the third consecutive month that orders for durable goods have fallen.
Orders for durable goods in February were revised to a drop of 0.2% from a 0.3% increase.
Shipments fell 0.2%, with declines across several categories. Inventories rose 0.4% in March. Transportation represented the biggest drop in orders, down 7.8%. Orders for civilian airplanes fell 22.7%, while orders for military aircraft dropped 35%. Orders for motor vehicles, meanwhile, fell 2.4%. It was the third straight month that auto and truck orders fell. All orders excluding transportation fell 1%, the second straight decline. Core orders - capital equipment used by businesses - fell 4.7% after falling 2.5% in February. It was the largest decline since November 2003. Orders for computers and primary metals were the only categories that rose in March. New orders for machinery fell 7.6%, while shipments fell 2.8%."
Improvement in new durable goods orders is essential in boosting industrial production growth. This report is a significant negative for the equity market, as it follows on several other reports of a rapidly slowing economy in the U.S.
The following chart illustrates the negative trend.
Following this report, pre-open Dow futures are minus 44.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 27, 2005 09:03:13 AM | Category: Economics
One caveat -- with Boeing's large orders this month, the headline number for April should be far, far better. Ex-trans., who knows?
Posted by: Josh Silverman at April 27, 2005 9:20 AM [link]