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April 4, 2005
The Boeing Reality, Mon., April 4, 2005, 3:33 PM
It is true that myths are created by public relations firms and then perpetuated by a media that is indifferent, too lazy to seek the truth, or complicit. Today, I'd like to give you some insight into the myth that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA $58.39) is primarily a manufacturer of commercial aircraft, rather than the leading producer of ‘weapons of mass destruction' it truly is.
Here is the latest SEC EDGAR filing of Boeing operating data. You will find it in Item 6 of the 10/K (Selected Financial Data).
Before looking at the line item detail of this data, let's think once more about the Boeing myth.
First, let me point you to the usually excellent research reports of Value Line, which for the Dow 30 components is free. The March 25 Value Line report on Boeing by Morton Siegel, unfortunately, is considerably lacking.
Would it be fair to say that most readers of this blog (and I spend a lot of time getting at facts) still believe that Boeing's top line revenue is much more than 40 percent for commercial aircraft?
But it is not. In 2004, commercial aircraft revenues made up just $20.1 billion out of a total of $52.5 billion in revenue.
Would it be fair to say that the average investor believes that Boeing has higher revenues today from commercial aircraft than it did in 2000-2001? But, year-2000 revenues were $31.2 billion and 2001 revenues were $35.1 billion, for commercial aircraft, so the 2004 total of $20.1 billion doesn't cut it.
But the problem isn't just that revenue from commercial aircraft does not stack up; neither does the order backlog, which (if you split out the detail found in the notes) has fallen a lot over the past five years.
It's true that Airbus is eating Boeing's lunch, which is a point I have been making, but it's not the important point. So, given that I had some time while waiting for this bull phase to cycle out, I started to look at the SEC filings of Boeing. The facts are there for all to see.
Boeing employees are aware of these facts of course because in the past four years they have watched 20 percent of their peers get the ax. The total yearend-2000 workforce of 198,000 has fallen to 159,000.

Boeing management also knows who their ‘Daddy' is too " or should I say ‘Uncle'?
For 2004, operating earnings for the Commercial Aircraft group totalled $753 million and margins have fallen from 7.1 pct in 2002 to just 3.6 pct in 2004. On the other hand, Boeing's Integrated Defense group generated 2004 operating earnings of $2.93 billion (almost four times as much) with margins of 9.6 pct, which grew from 8.0 pct in 2002.
This data shows what Boeing has become, and that it pays to be a major defense manufacturer in a nation at war under Uncle Sam.
Revenue from the Defense Systems group has grown from 20.0 billion (2000) to $30.5 billion (2004), which just happens to be the F/A-18 Hornet, the F-15 Eagle, the C-17 Globemaster III transport, and the AH-64D Apache helicopter, plus Delta rockets, missiles, the International Space Station, and (with Lockheed) the Space Shuttle.
Canadians are starting to cotton on to this reality because earlier this year it became apparent that the Bush administration is pushing hard for the weaponization of space, which is being resisted by Ottawa but should be a windfall for Boeing in any event.
I'm not going to get into Boeing's recent problems at the Pentagon. Some people got caught; that's old news. It's probably also old news that there is a close link between Boeing and former very senior military and political leaders of the United States, and private capital groups like the Carlisle Group.
You can do this research on your own. And if you want to find out a little of the workings of the Carlisle Group, there is plenty of info on the Web, including this link.
Now, the last thing I want to do in my blog to become a clone of Michael Moore, filmmaker of the controversial and provocative Fahrenheit 9/11. That's not my interest, nor my style.
What I do want, however, is to have investors understand that myths in the capital markets exist for a reason. It's a reason why those of us on the buy-side who are interested in analysis have to fight through the synthesis of Wall Street in order to get to the facts of the capital markets.
One of the myths I found is that The Boeing Company is much more commercial aircraft manufacturer than it is an "integrated defense" manufacturer. As you can see now, it is not.
The myth has existed because from a public relations perspective, it's much easier to sell a trade war against the world than a military war in which real people die.
But, investors have to deal with reality, so it would be helpful if the media stop perpetuating myths. And it would be helpful if Value Line provide these facts in their next report on Boeing.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 4, 2005 03:27:36 PM | Category: 20 Industrials , U.S. Dow 30 , U.S. Equities
