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April 5, 2005

Suncor ‘Primed for Boom', Tues., April 5, 2005, 10:49 AM

Today legendary T. Boone Pickens told a CNBC audience that Suncor (NYSE: SU) would be a good long-term investment and, while I don't often listen to Texas oilmen who recommend equity investments, I want to say that Suncor is on the Cara Global Best 100 list.

In past articles, both here and for Trader Wizard, I have written glowingly about the Canadian oil sands, of which Suncor is a major part. Yesterday, the Globe & Mail Report On Business started a three-part series of articles on the oil sands, which I recommend you read.

These quotes from Patrick Brethour's article ("Alberta's Earth-Shaking Ambitions") gives you a taste of what you will read about Suncor.


"Over the past three decades, $34-billion has been spent to create an industry that produces one million barrels of oil a day from the oil sands, which were once useful only for waterproofing canoes. Impressive as that figure might seem, it is insignificant compared to what is on the way: $87-billion in investment over the next decade to push output past two million barrels a day -- putting this region of northern Alberta on par with major OPEC producers.

The production could last for centuries at current rates -- and much longer if economics and technology combine to allow the exploitation of the 2.5 trillion barrels of oil believed to be trapped in the bitumen sands, an ultimate prize that is eight times bigger than the reserves of Saudi Arabia.

The capital spending spree is unprecedented in modern Canada, and dwarfs any other industrial project in the nation. The tens of billions being spent in the oil sands would pay for the Terminal 1 expansion at Toronto's Pearson International Airport 24 times over. Single projects in Fort McMurray are the equal of the massive hydroelectric project planned to span the Lower Churchill River in Labrador; taken together, all of the oil sands investment could build those two dams, and 16 others.

All told, Fort McMurray -- a former salt-mine town -- is home to one of the greatest concentrations of investment on the planet.

For the head of Suncor's oil sands operations, the next wave of expansion is more than just an extension of the current industry. It is a second era in the story of the oil sands, one in which the sector is no longer stalked by the fear of low oil prices, and one in which the massive bitumen resources in the Fort McMurray region play a key role in slaking North America's thirst for energy. "The oil sands have come of age," says executive vice-president Steven Williams, sitting in his office at the heart of Suncor's upgrading operations.

The shape of the new era has become increasingly clear over the past two months, as Suncor and others have unveiled plans for new megaprojects.

From his office in the heart of Suncor's operations, Mr. Williams can see the sweep of the oil sands' future in front of him, a path that will take his company past half a million barrels a day of production by the early part of the next decade. He, for one, is convinced that the sector's momentum is unstoppable. The billions will be spent, and from the scrub trees and swamp, his industry will build Canada into an oil giant. "It's going to happen, you can feel the region heating up."


Why do I like Suncor? The major story is, of course, the oil sands of Canada, and the capital that will be invested there for many years into the future because the high cost to recover oil there will not likely ever again be a hurdle due to low crude oil prices. I think that an average of $35 oil (future 24-36 months) will now have to be raised to a minimum $40-$45 range.

But Suncor is a well-managed company too. With pricing power, rising margins and increasing production levels, plus a politically stable " in fact investor-friendly -- jurisdiction, what's to worry about here. The company has a five-year average Return on Equity of over 22 percent, plus a net profit margin of 17.2 pct that has been rising constantly in the past three years as the price of oil has risen.


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The stock has risen constantly for six years, but the fact is there is no end in sight. SU is a portfolio core holding that you want to buy on any weakness in broad markets.

This is one stock that I'd have no qualms about writing puts to seek income, and to be ready to take in the stock should it be put to me on weakness. In 10 to 20 years, I'm going to be very happy with this investment.

Now, as readers know, I called a cycle top in the broad equity market at the start of March. The oil stocks have been supporting the whole of the equity market since then, and I have been watching the sector closely to see if and when investors stop chasing these stocks.

The jury is still out. There was a minimal pullback, then another move up. I'm caught between not wanting to throw away stocks of really good companies and not wanting to join the group of media cheerleaders behind this sector.

The risk to investors of course is tied to the currently high inventory levels for crude oil, plus question marks as to when global economies are going to expand based on product supply-demand factors, and not speculative price demand.

As I see it, in countries and regions where there is a minimum of price speculation, there is extremely slow economic growth. That leads me to think that once the central bankers in the U.S. and China squeeze hard enough to eliminate the remaining pockets of speculation, the real estate market and the stock market, which are key drivers and leading economic indicators, may seriously contract. And what that would do to broad equity market indexes would be to pull them down significantly.

So, I continue to watch the energy sector (GICS 10), where I have 59 oil & gas stocks in my database, broken into six sub-industry groups. I continue to review these charts daily.

10101010 Oil & Gas Drilling Drilling contractors or owners of drilling rigs that contract their services for drilling wells.

10101020 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Equipment manufacturers, including drilling rigs and equipment, and providers of supplies and services to companies that drill, evaluate and complete oil & gas wells.

10102010 Integrated Oil & Gas Integrated oil companies engaged in the exploration & production of oil and gas, as well as at least one other significant activity in either refining, marketing and transportation, or chemicals.

10102010 additional list.

10102020 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Companies engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas not classified elsewhere.

10102020 additional list.

10102030 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Companies engaged in the refining and marketing of oil, gas and/or refined products not classified in the Integrated Oil & Gas or Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Sub-Industries.

10102040 Oil & Gas Storage & Transport Companies in storage and/or transportation of oil, gas and/or refined products. Includes diversified midstream natural gas companies facing competitive markets, oil and refined product pipelines, coal slurry pipelines and oil & gas shipping companies.

In the short-term, this is an interesting market to say the least. Long-term, however, Suncor ought to be on your radar screen, if not in your portfolio.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 5, 2005 10:49:16 AM | Category: 10 Energy , Canada , The Big Picture

Discourse

Bill, I really enjoy your blog.

You often refer to "the Cara Global Best 100 list." I have not been able to find this; is it somewhere in the blog?

Thanks.

Posted by: Liz L. at April 5, 2005 12:03 PM [link]